Just basketball today, it seems. But boy. Plenty of basketball.
NIT Bits
Texas A&M looked ferocious on defense last night, and Wake Forest pretty quickly got to a spot where it didn’t look like they wanted to be there anymore. Washington State looked even better on the offensive side down in Provo, grabbing another impressive road win and entering Madison Square Garden as the KenPom favorite if not quite the favorite in the market (I haven’t seen odds yet).
For Wake Forest, it was a good year with a bad ending. Had they won and lost in a different order throughout the year, it would leave a better taste in the mouth. As it is, they crashed from a happy peak, and while they’re “ahead of schedule” in the Steve Forbes era, my impression is that there’s a lot of transition potentially ahead for the roster this offseason, with Alondes Williams in the NBA discussion and a senior-heavy lineup (though Covid eligibility may mean the lineup’s younger than it seems).
For BYU, it was a rough year with a rough ending. BYU’s at a stage where they want to make the NCAA Tournament every year, and for much of the season it looked like that wouldn’t be a problem. They lost that pair at Santa Clara and Pacific, though, and then couldn’t stop the bleeding at home, and from there it was pretty much over. They never really looked right again aside from a few times against inferior opposition, and Washington State ran them off their own floor last night to put the nail in the coffin. They, too, face transition ahead. Alex Barcello is out of eligibility, I believe, and Te’Jon Lucas should be as well, having played 22 or more games in five separate seasons now, dating back to 2017. Covid eligibility has made this all so confusing for me. Apologies for not being more on top of it.
For Texas A&M and Washington State, this is a step forward. They’ve gotten to a place where they’re excited to be playing the games they’re playing, and the future looks bright, even if WSU’s going to graduate Michael Flowers. Each coach has a good thing going in a place that shouldn’t hesitate to get behind them, and they’ve got plenty more to play for this next week as well.
Tonight’s Games
Thoughts on the front half of the Sweet Sixteen:
Gonzaga vs. Arkansas – 7:09 PM EDT, CBS
Arkansas has its work cut out for it. There’s no way around that. I’m not too convinced by the narrative that Gonzaga’s been struggling in the tournament so far—they haven’t looked great, no, but their finals haven’t been terribly far off the spread. If there are two things that make it especially hard for the Hogs, it’s tempo and free throws. Gonzaga’s loath to foul, and the fast tempo should help the Zags by raising the game’s sample size. Arkansas’s going to need a noteworthy offensive performance, and maybe some help from the Zags on the defensive end.
Villanova vs. Michigan – 7:29 PM EDT, TBS
Offense-heavy matchup here, with Hunter Dickinson facing an attackable matchup inside and Villanova’s guards licking their lips at what should be a lot of scoring opportunities from deep. If Villanova’s making shots, it’s hard to see them losing, and it won’t be a track meet, but Michigan’s close enough to keep it interesting the whole way through, and it’s one of those matchups where little would surprise because each offense is capable of really getting into gear.
Duke vs. Texas Tech – 9:39 PM EDT, CBS
Coach K vs. Mark Adams, Offense vs. Defense, Private vs. Public, Gilt vs. Grit. Your guess is as good as mine, honestly. Texas Tech is going to try to do what they do, which is beat teams up. Duke is going to try to do what they do, which is out-talent teams. It’s the best matchup of the tournament so far, you could write for days about how these schools are such opposites, it is the kind of event that makes college sports a lot of fun. Full cultural clash happening on a basketball court. What a ride.
Arizona vs. Houston – 9:59 PM EDT, TBS
And another great one here. This is one where every little thing seems to favor Houston, but Houston’s such an unknown that it’s hard to really be sure. One thing that hasn’t gotten much mention with Arizona is how much of an unknown they are. With teams holing up into conference play for so long, this is often the deal with college basketball, but the number of walkover teams in the Pac-12 this year makes it unclear whether Arizona’s great or merely dominant against the medium teams. The TCU game didn’t tell us too much, really. Just pointed out some things we should’ve already known, like that Kerr Kriisa isn’t right yet and that Arizona has vulnerabilities on the offensive glass. There is a non-zero chance these are the best two teams in the country, which adds another layer to all the mystery.
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Overall, it’s a big we’ll-see kind of night. It would be a huge surprise for Gonzaga to lose, a mild surprise for Villanova to lose, and beyond that, everything’s on the table. For our own purposes, with the futures portfolio, we’d like Houston to beat Arizona, but even that isn’t make-or-break for us. The swing’s something like 60% to 40% in terms of profit probability with a Houston win vs. an Arizona win. Tomorrow’s going to be bigger with UCLA such a key figure and no money on Purdue or Kansas. I will say: Washington State’s performance last night bumped the Pac-12 teams up just a little bit in KenPom. Not enough to jump off the page, but you can get some glimpses of knowledge from seeing how teams’ opponents perform when the conference barriers are re-dissolved for the postseason.
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Viewing schedule for tonight is just the Sweet Sixteen. TBS through streaming, CBS on the antenna. Great games in the late slots, good ones opening for them. High drama potential all around, and plenty of great big brands, with strong identities from the others involved. Fun stuff, everybody.
