First overall NBA Draft picks, last ten years:
- 2021: Cade Cunningham
- 2020: Anthony Edwards
- 2019: Zion Williamson
- 2018: Deandre Ayton
- 2017: Markelle Fultz
- 2016: Ben Simmons
- 2015: Karl-Anthony Towns
- 2014: Andrew Wiggins
- 2013: Anthony Bennett
- 2012: Anthony Davis
How many of these guys have “worked out?” I’d argue that, and this is an expression of faith in Cunningham and Edwards, six have. Davis has made eight All-Star Games. Wiggins was sometimes the best player on the floor last week for the now-NBA Champions. Towns was Rookie of the Year and has made the All-Star team three times. Ayton might get a max contract this offseason. Edwards and Cunningham have each started well in their drafted locales. Of course, Davis eventually forced his way out of New Orleans for what became a title in the bubble, Wiggins was roundly called a bust for years, an increasing number of people are saying the Timberwolves need to move on from Towns to move on from mediocrity, and Ayton caught a lot of heat for checking out as the Suns fell apart against the Mavericks (and Edwards and Cunningham are unproven), but hey, could be worse: They could be Anthony Bennett.
Williamson, Fultz, and Simmons may yet work out. You could argue Simmons and Williamson have worked out, given how good their peaks have been (Simmons, like Towns, won the Rookie of the Year award and has made three All-Star teams). But the point here is that, even with first overall picks, you’ve got something like an 80% success rate, tops, and that’s at drafting a good player, not at drafting everything the player was hyped up to be. Has any first overall pick since 2003 become all they were hyped to be?
Applying this 80% number to this year’s top four, as I’m told it’s a four-player draft, and it seems likeliest that one of Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, and Jaden Ivey will be, in the end, immensely disappointing. It’s a little mean to dwell on that—this is an exciting night for these guys, they’ve earned the excitement—but there’s a big disparity between how we treat the draft and what the draft really is. Picking early in the draft is a game of poker, yes. You play your hands, you make the best guesses possible, an enormous windfall is a possibility and so are lower levels of success. But it’s also a game of Russian roulette. You can get burned so hard. And so GM’s, as they draft in these top spots, aren’t just tasked with maximizing the value of their slot. They’re also tasked with not accidentally shooting their franchise in the temple.
Finally, Some Finishes
With the NBA Playoffs so full of blowouts, the Stanley Cup Playoffs so full of empty-net goals, and even the College World Series lacking drama, we’ve been starved for good finishes in high-leverage sports of late.
Which made last night’s Arkansas and Avalanche victories so fun.
In the former, Arkansas entered the ninth inning of an elimination game ahead 3-1 against Mississippi, trying to force a do-or-die matchup today to reach the College World Series’ championship best-of-three. Quickly, they loaded the bases. With nobody out.
The ensuing escape was tense, and it took a while. Covered in dirt and sweat, a full season at their backs and more to play should they survive that ninth, the Razorbacks held the line, and what a release it was when they did so. In the Omaha golden hour, college baseball delivered what college baseball is supposed to deliver (complete with two guys in a row reaching by being hit by a pitch).
In the latter, it was just your normal overtime playoff hockey game, which is to say it was a constant stream of series-altering scoring opportunities smashed together into madness, madness which ended with the Avalanche euphoric and many of the Lightning faithful resigned to their likely fate.
We’ll see what Gelo thinks of the series from here—late start from me today, so it’s only running just now—and we’ll have the hedges tomorrow, but the Avalanche have grabbed a 3-1 series lead in the Stanley Cup Finals, they get Games 5 and 7 at home (if they need both), and they’re the better team. That’s a good recipe for lifting the Cup.
Six Innings, One Cycle
The Nationals and Orioles only made it through six innings last night before rain washed out the remainder of the game, but Austin Hays nevertheless hit for the cycle. How’s that for efficiency?
It was the latest impressive performance from an outfielder giving the O’s a lot to hope on. 26 years old, Hays is hitting 36% better than an average major leaguer. Over the last year and a half, he’s been worth 3.9 fWAR. Best yet, for Baltimore, he and Cedric Mullins are both under club control through 2025. There’s time for this to work out over there.
In other MLB news:
- Omaha and Tampa weren’t the only locales to enjoy good finales yesterday. Trailing 3-1 entering the bottom of the ninth, Atlanta pulled within one of the Giants on a Dansby Swanson home run before William Contreras eventually tied it on a one-out single. Then, with two outs, Adam Duvall singled to center, bringing home Contreras, who’d stolen second just before. Charlie Morton and Carlos Rodón combined for 21 strikeouts in 14 innings earlier in the night.
- Shohei Ohtani did save the Angels from the sweep against Kansas City, going eight scoreless while striking out thirteen. The Angels, in a somewhat related story, have optioned Reid Detmers to AAA, he of the no-hitter back when things were happy for that franchise.
- Joe Musgrove will start tonight after a brief stay on the Covid IL. Padres dodged a bullet there, it seems.
- The Yankees have traded David McKay to the Rays in exchange for cash. McKay had been designated for assignment, so not a big story, but then again, who knows what the Rays will do with this guy?
The Cubs Offense Isn’t That Bad
After last night’s outburst in Pittsburgh (which was highlighted by Keegan Thompson turning in another strong start and breaking up a losing streak), the Cubs are right around league-average offensively by wRC+, which is good! That is a positive. Hopefully it continues. There’s a calculate-every-team’s-xwOBA assignment on the docket which may or may not work out. Need to do it well before the trade deadline, since I don’t think it’s possible with publicly available numbers for guys who’ve played for multiple teams this year. Looking at the Cubs, though, I’d guess the xwRC+ isn’t too different from the wRC+. Ian Happ and Patrick Wisdom each have wOBA’s six points above their xwOBA, while Willson Contreras and Frank Schwindel are 22 and 11 points behind their xwOBA, respectively. Nico Hoerner’s 37 points behind, Rafael Ortega’s eight points ahead, Seiya Suzuki’s five points behind, Jonathan Villar’s two points behind, if we keep going down the list we’ll start getting into guys without many at-bats. The point is, there isn’t some teamwide luck trend that’s all too telling. The Cubs are average offensively, and that’s a bright spot. Were they average as a team right now, we’d be pretty happy.
Of course, Willson Contreras and Ian Happ are leading the charge, and it’s possible both will be traded within the next month, so maybe this is deceptive. Or maybe the Cubs should extend at least Happ.
In other Cubs bits, Ethan Roberts will undergo Tommy John surgery and Daniel Norris is going on the IL with a strained finger. Adrian Sampson rejoins the big-league club.
Arch Manning to Texas
Arch Manning committed to Texas today, and that’s a big deal. Manning is one of the best recruits in college football history. But for as big as the news is, Texas has a long way to go before Manning reaches campus, and they’ve got another well-regarded young quarterback standing under center in the meantime. What will Manning find at Texas? A lot of that depends on how the Longhorns turn out with Quinn Ewers at the helm this year.
**
Viewing schedule today/tonight, second screen rotation in italics:
- 12:35 PM EDT: Cubs @ Pirates, Steele vs. Quintana (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- 1:10 PM EDT: Guardians @ Twins, Plesac vs. Smeltzer (MLB TV)
- 4:00 PM EDT: Arkansas vs. Mississippi, College World Series (ESPN2)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Astros @ Yankees, Valdez vs. Taillon (MLB TV)
- 7:30 PM EDT: NBA Draft (ABC/ESPN)
- 9:40 PM EDT: Phillies @ Padres, Suárez vs. Musgrove (MLB TV)
