College basketball begins today, and if you’re worried you’re missing something, don’t be: There isn’t a single game tonight, Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday between teams in the preseason top 60 on KenPom. The closest is tonight’s between Memphis and Vanderbilt, both of whom could easily miss the NCAA Tournament.
It’s a slow start, provoked—I assume—by Election Day, but it gives something of a preseason feeling to these next four days. Teams will ease into it. Teams will figure out what they are.
If you’re looking for a comprehensive college basketball preview, you’ll probably want to dig elsewhere, but the high level is this: There are six teams right now, more or less, who appear reasonable possibilities to win the national championship. There are six teams you could call the national championship favorite without getting a Chris Berman “Huh?” These are the six:
Gonzaga
Old steady. Old trustworthy. Whatever you want to call the Zags, they’re the sport’s best program. This doesn’t mean they’re invincible—we’re all well aware they haven’t won a championship yet—but they’re a threat every single year, and this year is no different. Drew Timme is back. Anton Watson is back. And in typical Gonzaga fashion, we’re going to get to see a whole lot of them these next few weeks before the year turns and they enter WCC hibernation. They play Michigan State on Friday in the aircraft carrier game. They play Texas in Austin next Wednesday. They “host” Kentucky in an off-campus Spokane arena two weeks from yesterday, they’ll play in the PK85 over Thanksgiving weekend (possibly showing down with Duke), and they’ll play Baylor in Sioux Falls to open December. We’re going to see a lot of Gonzaga, and while they’re not the clear favorite they’ve been in recent years, we expect to see good things.
Kentucky
Kentucky opens the year as the KenPom #1, and we put a lot of stock in KenPom around here. The Cats are, however, without Oscar Tshiebwe right now, and might be for a while as the big man recovers from a knee surgery that John Calipari has described as minor but was still a surgery on a knee. Sahvir Wheeler may also be out for a game or two, having suffered a knee injury in an exhibition against Missouri Western State, but to our knowledge he has not touched an operating table in the last month. Kentucky is no longer the strict one-and-done program it once was, and it hasn’t been that for a bit, but they do have a pair of top-20 recruits, so they’re still Calipari Kentucky, and while it’s been four years since they’ve won an NCAA Tournament game, that’s not the best reflection of where the program is at. This should be a good team.
Baylor
Another good team? Newfound traditional power Baylor. The Big 12 is tough as ever, but betting markets seem to think Baylor heads the pack, and it’s hard to blame them. Retooled through the transfer portal, losers of just thirteen games over the last three seasons combined, the Bears should be great yet again. They might be the third-best team in the Big 12. That would still probably be pretty good.
Kansas
Bill Self has been enjoying a mandatory vacation for some recruiting violations, but in college basketball, you get to pick your schedule, and aside from a Champions Classic no-lose-situation against Duke, Kansas should be fine without him. They’ll hit their stride, and they’ll be good again, and the Phog will erupt again and again and again.
Worth noting here, since we mentioned Baylor might be worse than three Big 12 teams: KenPom is very high on Texas, whom it ranks 2nd. It’s also high on Tennessee and Virginia, whom it ranks 4th and 5th. We don’t include those teams here because, well, this is about the conversation. KenPom has a better read than me on how good teams are. But you’ll get a Chris Berman “Huh?” if you say Texas, Tennessee, or Virginia when asked who the country’s best team is. If you want to seem smart, yes, go read into those teams and get excited. This is what we’ve got for now.
North Carolina
North Carolina won March, and it won April, and it even won May, but it didn’t win the national championship. It wasn’t that good of a team, but it sure strung together some great games towards the end of the year, and it was certainly a good team. Armando Bacot comes back. He brings with him plenty more talent.
Houston
Remember when it looked like Houston was going to win the national championship and then Villanova pulled out the candle extinguisher and snuffed them out? Kelvin Sampson has a legitimate argument as the best coach in the game, and this program isn’t receding yet. Always buy Houston.
Thoughts, Programming Notes, Miscellany
Well, the Astros won the World Series, so that was too bad. Games 5 and 6 lived up to the rest of the series—Chas McCormick’s catch is still rattling around my head, and it’s heartbreaking that Kyle Schwarber hit the way he hit and didn’t get a ring for it, but that’s the way baseball goes—but it’s a shame we didn’t get a Game 7. That series deserved a Game 7. Good for the Astros, I doubt this team cheated any more than other teams cheat, I understand why some like Dusty Baker even if I don’t, this isn’t a dynasty but whatever go ahead and call them that.
For our bets, it was disappointing to not get fully bailed out, but we did chip away a little at the deficit, and we should get another chunk bitten off tomorrow night or in the following days as our election bets come through. Unless polls are shockingly wrong, those currently seem like a nice biennial boost for us. Please knock on wood now.
We did start college basketball bets today, and we’re getting our act together enough to resume futures in most sports soon. We’ll see if it happens, but we’re trying every day. Part-time is not enough time to build this business, but it’s what we’ve got. Our earnest hope is to have the bracketologies up on Friday, but I’d put odds at longer than even on that actually happening.
The Packers are a mess, and I can’t get the image of Aaron Rodgers underthrowing an open David Bakhtiari out of my head. It feels like an inflection point for the franchise, and I don’t think this is a franchise that was in need of an inflection point.
It was nice for Iowa State to get on the board in the Big 12 win column, and it’s nice that Oklahoma State has fallen so fast and the road to a bowl doesn’t look wholly insurmountable. More on that game later this week. Plenty of nerves about it.
On the court tonight, I’m excited to see what Iowa State’s got. IUPUI is supposed to literally be the worst team in Division I men’s basketball, so we might not get a great idea of what Iowa State’s got, but things like a high shooting percentage would be good omens.
**
Viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:
College Basketball (something for each time slot-ish, plus Iowa State)
- 12:00 PM EST: Mississippi Valley State @ Baylor (ESPN+)
- 2:00 PM EST: Pacific @ Stanford (P12N)
- 4:00 PM EST: Valley Forge @ James Madison (ESPN+)
- 6:30 PM EST: Purdue-Fort Wayne @ Michigan (BTN)
- 8:00 PM EST: Memphis @ Vanderbilt (ESPN+)
- 8:00 PM EST: IUPUI @ Iowa State (ESPN+)
- 10:00 PM EST: Texas Southern @ San Francisco (WCC Network)
- 12:00 AM EST: Tulsa @ Oregon State (P12N)
NFL
- 8:15 PM EST: Baltimore @ New Orleans (ESPN)
