Joe’s Notes: Shōta Imanaga’s MLB Debut Is the Best One Yet

It’s possible I missed someone, looking back through the historic records.

It’s possible another NPB pitcher had a better first six starts after transitioning to Major League Baseball.

But from what I can tell, Shōta Imanaga has been the best Japanese pitcher import in MLB history in his first six outings since crossing the Pacific. The seven active Japanese starters, plus their three most notable historic predecessors:

Imanaga is, of course, older than almost the entire rest of the list. More than half the list was, at the time of their debut, younger than 27, the age at which baseball players are sometimes said to enter their prime (more recent evidence points towards this happening earlier, but either way, Imanaga’s old). There are questions about competition, and questions about preparation—Nomo’s first six starts came in a 26-day span amidst the steroid era. Still, what we’ve seen from Imanaga in these first six outings is historic. He is pitching like none before him have pitched in terms of strikeouts, walks, and home runs, adjusted for the norms of the time and accounting for innings eaten. Maybe it continues. More likely, he comes at least a little bit back to earth. But so far, Imanaga has been the best pitcher yet in his transition from Japanese to American baseball.

Can NHL Injury Reports Stay This Vague?

The big news heading into tonight, in the NBA, is that Damian Lillard (right Achilles tendonitis) is going to play while Giannis Antetokounmpo (left soleus strain) will not yet return. In the NHL, it’s that Auston Matthews (illness and undisclosed injury?) will not be be active. The Bucks and the Leafs are both missing their best player. In the Bucks’ case, we know the exact muscle in the calf that’s strained, and we know on which leg. In the Leafs’ case, we have only corresponding reports that there is some type of injury to Matthews in addition to the illness he was already known to be fighting.

The reason for injury reports, ostensibly, is to make all inside information public so there isn’t any angle for gamblers to bribe athletes or staff in exchange for said inside information. There’s probably more to it than that—the NBA can get a little more engagement through explaining to interested viewers the difference between the gastrocnemius and the soleus, while the NHL can play to its own base by amplifying its hard-nosed reputation. The stated reason, though, is gambling. Which makes the NHL’s situation interesting: Can it keep it this vague?

So far, it seems to be working fine. Amidst all the gambling scandals banging around the boards, the NHL has yet to see anything related to injury reports rear its head. That doesn’t mean nothing’s happening, but so far, there’s been neither smoke nor fire. The fact it’s going ok, though, calls into question the approach in the NBA, NFL, and MLB: Do they need to be as detailed as they are?

Overall, it’s all fine. Each league has something that works for itself. But just as the NHL’s rationale that opponents could target players’ injured parts doesn’t hold up perfectly given the same is true for the NFL, the NFL & NBA & MLB’s insistence that opaqueness risks scandal is suspect given the NHL doesn’t seem to be having problems. Unless—and this actually might be part of the reason—NHL players and staff are simply more trustworthy when it comes to keeping things in-house.

The Rest

The NBA:

• If I’m the Pacers, I think I’m relieved it’s only Lillard playing tonight? Regardless, a nerve-racking evening ahead for Indiana and its fans. The Bucks have played themselves into a position where they have nothing to lose. The only real question if they go down is how much cover the injuries have provided Doc Rivers.
• Elsewhere, Scott Foster’s the crew chief for Game 6 in Philadelphia, and we would like to be clear that this is a choice by the NBA. The NBA knows what this looks like and is choosing to do it anyway. Does this mean the NBA is rigging the game? Not at all. It means they’re fine with it looking like they rig games. Scott Foster grades out well as a referee. But grading out well in the regular season doesn’t mean you’re immune to temptation from the dramatic.

The NHL:

• The Leafs do have home-ice advantage, and they’re more than Auston Matthews, but odds have shifted towards Boston by a meaningful amount since his absence was announced. Four percentage points of implied win probability, or thereabouts.

Chicago:

• Great one for the Cubs last night, tough one today. The bats are cold, but the Cubs are 18^th in position player fWAR and 13^th in projected position player fWAR on FanGraphs. That’s not a huge difference, and positive regression is likely, especially with five of the Cubs’ six qualified hitters sporting an xwOBA better than their wOBA.
• On the pitching side: Yes, the bullpen’s been a problem (27^th in fWAR), but we knew it would be (24^th in projected fWAR), and it’s actually not been that consequential so far (11^th in WPA). The bullpen will need reinforcements in July, and that’s always a crapshoot, but Imanaga pitching like a legitimate ace outweighs that problem for now. Him doing what he did last night on normal MLB rest is massive. If he’s a legitimate ace, that fundamentally changes the Cubs’ pitching outlook this season, allowing Justin Steele to be his more natural second-starter self, allowing Jameson Taillon to be a depth arm, and allowing the rest of the crew to be all-upside. It’s not the best playoff rotation you could ask for, but it’s improving, and it’s been better than expected even with Steele missing most of the year so far.
• Overall, the Cubs are on a 96-win pace and they play in the NL Central. They’ve gotten through a tougher portion of the schedule. They’re narrowly the division favorites. The Cubs are in a good spot.