Roger Goodell said yesterday that he doesn’t think NFL refereeing has “ever been better.” Coming off an AFC Championship Game in which the officials were a big story, this was…not what people wanted to hear.
Was Goodell wrong, though? Replay review, though maddeningly tedious at times, corrects many of refs’ most significant mistakes with the aid of some of the highest-definition cameras history has ever known. In live action, the NFL has a massive incentive for its officials to do a good job and massive resources with which to train it into happening. If officiating wasn’t in a constant state of at least gradual improvement, it would be baffling.
Surely, yes, mistakes are being made, both in individual games and in the broader approach. Perhaps refs are getting worse at satiating players and coaches mid-game, as Aaron Rodgers kind of suggested on Tuesday when he praised Gene Steratore for “understanding how to interact with guys and how to communicate with them, and then how to control a game without being a part of it.” But do we really have any evidence things aren’t getting better? It’s the simplest bet. That’s often the right one.
Brock Purdy Will Be Repaired
Brock Purdy, per reports, will undergo surgery on February 22nd to repair his torn UCL. The plan—and as John Lynch has highlighted, things can change once the surgeon is inside the body—is to have something called an “InternalBrace” placed next to the repair to help brace the repaired ligament. The torn UCL is a rare injury for a quarterback, but Nick Mullens did have an InternalBrace put into his elbow in 2020, so there’s a little bit of a track record there.
This is the option that intends to have Purdy back in six months, placing his expected full return somewhere in the middle of training camp. Hopefully that’s how it goes, and hopefully there are no lingering effects.
Cyclones in the Draft
The NFL Combine invite list is out, and four Cyclones got the call. 319 players have been invited, and Will McDonald, Xavier Hutchinson, MJ Anderson, and Anthony Johnson Jr. are among them.
A combine invite isn’t a guarantee a player will be drafted. There are 259 picks in this year’s draft, about 80% of how many are invited to the combine. McDonald is projected as a borderline first-rounder, and Hutchinson should go on the draft’s second or third day, but Anderson and Johnson might not be selected.
Still, out of the New Big 12 programs, only TCU and Cincinnati had more players invited than the Cyclones, with Kansas State tied with ISU at four. That’s a good spot to be as a program, especially after producing four draft picks last year. Matt Campbell is getting guys to the pros, and that’s a great thing for a program to be doing, both as an indication of its developmental capabilities and as a tool in recruiting.
It Was a Fine Loss, It Was a Bad Loss
Like the Texas Tech loss but to a much lesser extent, Iowa State’s defeat last night in Morgantown would have felt better had they not given themselves such a good chance to win it. Despite three players fouling out, Iowa State had a lead late in the second half, with Caleb Grill notching a double-double and Jaren Holmes grabbing a “triple-nickel” while West Virginia handled Iowa State’s defensive harassment and held on for the win.
West Virginia is a better team today than Iowa State is. This is heresy for some, but it’s true. Play on a neutral court right now and the Mountaineers would be favored. West Virginia started Big 12 play roughly, but they’ve gotten it together as the schedule’s gotten more manageable and they’re a safe bet to make the NCAA Tournament, even if they haven’t done enough so far to be a lock (or seeded highly in bracketologies like Joe Lunardi’s, which are a measure of the moment as it stands rather than a forecast of where things will land). So, again, it’s a fine loss, but it would’ve been nice to have that win. We were already starting to believe again in Iowa State’s chance to win the Big 12 title, and while the possibility of at least grabbing a share is still there, this would have put ISU’s projection at 12-6, alongside Texas. Instead, it’s at 11-7, alongside Kansas and Baylor and Kansas State. And this weekend looks dangerous with Oklahoma State coming to Ames.
I don’t personally have many complaints about Iowa State’s play aside from two things, one from Caleb Grill and one from T.J. Otzelberger (both of whom are favorites of ours, so please don’t take this as our whole evaluation of the pair):
Caleb Grill panicked again in an end–of–game situation, just like last week. He had the ball, Iowa State had the game in its grasp, he expected to get fouled and tried to get fouled and with plenty of time to jump stop and shot fake and gather himself and kick it out if there was nothing there, he missed a contested layup. It looked like his frenzied three-point attempts in the closing moments in Lubbock last week. It was bad.
T.J. Otzelberger did not have the team ready to execute an end–of–game situation where they needed a three. Joe Toussaint, damn him, stinking Hawkeye, made a smart college basketball play to draw the charge from Jaren Holmes, but he was only in position to do that because Iowa State’s last–seconds approach turned into a cluster of Cyclones on the wing. Holmes looked like he had no plan and didn’t know what his teammates would do when the players on the court included four capable three-point shooters. Instead of King screening for Holmes while Kalscheur and Kunc double-screened for Grill before one of them slipped it, everyone ran around with their heads cut off. It doesn’t need to be complicated. It doesn’t even need to work every time. But have a plan, and you might have more composure.
The Mountain West Is Too Much Fun
It’s time to shut down the Mountain West. It’s gotten too good.
San Diego State did its part last night, bullying Utah State in Logan for most of the game before the Aggies made a run in the closing minutes—in the process dealing Utah State a loss in a game that would’ve gone a long way towards getting them off the bubble—but the league is good. It has five teams in strong position to make the NCAA Tournament, two of them would be surprising omissions knowing only what we know right now, and KenPom now rates the league as better, top to bottom, than the ACC. Some of this is Louisville, and the Mountain West doesn’t have any team on Virginia’s level or any team matching Duke and UNC for talent, but the league has few pushovers and plenty of contenders both for its title and for tournament bids. Add in that 1) these crowds are crazy and 2) the games happen late at night measured east of the Rockies and 3) half the courts are above 4,500 feet, and it’s a college basketball fan’s guilty pleasure. No, it isn’t spectacular sport. It isn’t Barcelona playing Manchester City or Patrick Mahomes facing the Eagles. But it’s a hell of a time. And unless San Diego State gets to the Pac-12 and the Pac-12 doesn’t fall apart as a result of also needing to add SMU, it looks set to stick together. If the Pac-12 does fall apart, the Mountain West could even add Oregon State and Washington State, each of whom carries the potential to lift this league to even better heights.
Conference realignment often pillages these mid-major leagues. The AAC is in shambles, and Conference USA is a mess. But the Mountain West, through geographic convenience, is getting strong, and could theoretically come through this stronger. That needs to happen in football (and is not currently happening in football) to impact the schools’ own welfare, but basketball and football aren’t wholly independent. Better basketball than nothing.
Tennessee’s New Vulnerability
For months, we’ve questioned Tennessee’s ability to score when they need to, and those questions haven’t gone away. Between last night’s loss to Vanderbilt and the recent loss to Florida, though, a new question has arisen:
What if the other team takes care of the ball?
So much of Tennessee’s defensive strength comes from intense ball pressure. They force more turnovers per possession than all but three Power Five schools (credit KenPom on all stats in this blurb, and the list of those three is Iowa State, UCLA, Mizzou). Their opponents’ effective field goal percentage is the worst in the country, pointing to a sensational ability from the Vols to force bad shots. Others—most notably Ken Pomeroy—have been banging the drum about impending three-point regression, saying teams won’t shoot 22% from deep against these guys forever, and that’s true and that’s fair. Both Vanderbilt and Florida managed at least fine shooting nights in their upsets. But the bigger commonality between those two teams in those two games is that they held onto the ball successfully enough to get shots off in the first place. They turned it over some, but they mostly handled the ball. Which gets to a tougher issue for Tennessee:
Tennessee is only 2-3 in games where it allows its opponents to score more than a point per possession. Average a point for every trip down the floor—and an average offense averages 1.05 points every trip down the floor this year—and you have Tennessee in serious trouble, especially if you can at least defend them adequately at the other end. This makes potential 7 and 10-seeds who protect the ball, teams like Iowa and UNC and Northwestern, terrifying propositions for Rick Barnes. God help them if they run into Houston or Virginia.
It’s Fun to Have a Team to Beat
I don’t think the Suns are the best team in the NBA, and I know they aren’t the title favorites, but in a league without a clear top dog right now (my impression is that the Celtics, Bucks, Nuggets, and now Suns are all in the mix), it’s fun to have one that’s got the identity of the team to beat. That’s the thing about being the team to beat. It doesn’t mean you’re the best team out there or the top seed or the title favorite. It just means that if/when you lose, the reaction will be the biggest. It won’t be about the team who beat the Suns, like it will be with the winners of most playoff series. It’ll be about how the Suns lost.
Unless something else wild goes down in the next few hours. (Writing this at 12:38 PM CST.)
What Do the Bulls Want?
We and many others have resigned ourselves to the Bulls keeping Zach LaVine, despite the fact they’re paying him to be the top guy on a contender and he is not good enough to be the top guy on a contender and he is unlikely to become good enough to be the top guy on a contender and their plan around him seems to be mere decency in a league where that will land you exactly where the Bulls are in perpetuity. There are reports right now that he could move, potentially to the Knicks, but it’s the kind of thing we’ll believe when we see. With that, then…
What’s the plan here? Is there a plan? With the Cubs, it’s clear there’s a plan. It’s a plan many don’t like, and it’s a risky plan, and it’s a plan a lot of people are ignoring, but there’s a clear direction towards eventual strength. With the Bulls, the current thought seems to be to hope like hell whatever magic was captured early last year is somehow the true representation of what this sort of roster can do.
Hopefully they move him. Maybe we haven’t resigned ourselves enough.
**
What’s happening tonight:
College Basketball (the good ones)
- 7:00 PM EST: Iowa @ Purdue (ESPN2)
- 8:00 PM EST: Northwestern @ Ohio State (FS1)
- 10:00 PM EST: Saint Mary’s @ Loyola Marymount (WCCN)
- 11:00 PM EST: USC @ Oregon (ESPN2)
College Basketball (the interesting ones)
- 9:00 PM EST: San Francisco @ Gonzaga (ESPN2)
- 9:00 PM EST: UCLA @ Oregon State (P12N)
- 11:00 PM EST: Arizona @ Cal (P12N)
NBA (the best game? also, the Bulls)
- 7:30 PM EST: Bulls @ Brooklyn (TNT)
- 10:00 PM EST: Milwaukee @ LA Lakers (TNT)
NHL (the best game)
- 7:00 PM EST: Colorado @ Tampa Bay (ESPN)
