The All-Star Break ends today, with a pair of doubleheaders and two other games carrying us into the second just-less-than-half of the season. It’s a blitz of a two weeks now, with the draft hardly in the rearview and the trade deadline approaching on August 2nd. With all that, it’s a good time to recategorize the teams, and as is our custom with such things, we’ll be using FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds to do that:
Contenders: Los Angeles, Houston, New York (AL), New York (NL), Atlanta
Five teams, per FanGraphs, have better than a 5.7% chance of winning the World Series entering today. Five teams, per FanGraphs, have better than a 13.1% chance of winning the World Series entering today. There is a big gap between these fix and the next guys.
All five of these franchises are between roughly one-in-eight likely to win it all and roughly one-in-six likely to win it all. They’re of a kind, and while one of the NL East teams on the list has to lose that division, the fact each is in this air probability-wise reinforces how good each really is. Four of these five will, more likely than not, get first-round byes, and there’s a decent probability we’ll see all four of those in the LCS’s.
Playoff-Likely: Toronto, San Diego, Milwaukee
None of these three teams is more than 90% likely to make the playoffs, but none is less than 70% likely to miss them, either. The median outcome is that one—more likely the Padres or Brewers than Toronto—will miss, but we’re a Milwaukee or San Diego pair of wins away from the median outcome being all three making it. Each has flaws—the Brewers are injury-riddled where their strength lies, the Blue Jays have rather inexplicably again failed to find their groove, the Padres desperately miss Fernando Tatís Jr.—but each of the three would and probably will be a tough Wild Card Series matchup.
Wild Card Hunters: San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Seattle, St. Louis, Boston
St. Louis is on the edge of taking the NL Central lead here, but they’re still an underdog in that race, so we find them here for the time being. These six teams are all between 1.1% likely and 2.5% likely to win it all, and while that’s a big span, they’re also all between 38.5% likely and 70.4% likely to make the playoffs, which is…ok that’s also a big span. You could make a case for including the Rays in the section above, based on their playoff likelihood being above seven-in-ten, but their championship odds aren’t on that plane. They just don’t have the offense. Each of those three above has flaws. Each of these six has *significant* flaws. Multiple, in most cases.
The AL Central: Minnesota, Chicago (AL), Cleveland
The Twins, Guardians, and White Sox are all in the playoff push, and it would be surprising if any of them took a Wild Card spot despite each being somewhat close to that place in the AL standings at the moment. None of the three’s all that good on paper, giving something of a last-team-standing element to this pursuit. It’s not a division that will necessarily be won. It may only be lost. The team who fails to lose it will get to go to the playoffs, where—who knows, they might make some noise, this is baseball after all. They’ll get home-field advantage in the first round.
Not Good Enough: Miami, Baltimore, Texas
None of these three teams will play in October, in all likelihood, but each has remained close to the race for much of the year and has a bright future ahead of it. Expect all three to do at least some light trade deadline selling. The teams above them? Buyers, unless something goes really wrong in the next week and a half.
Not Disappointing: Arizona, Colorado, Pittsburgh
This gets a little into the realm of relativity, since how each team lines up has less to do with how good they are and more to do with how good they are relative to expectations. The Diamondbacks have a bright future. The Pirates have reasons for optimism. The Rockies are playing in a brutally difficult division and their front office seems to have no interest in ever again winning it, but hey, only ten games under .500 or whatever it is. Success!
Disaster: Anaheim
The Angels are an unmitigated disaster and legitimately might want to trade Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, but should probably hold off and just try to get really lucky with affordable free agent pickups and a healthy Anthony Rendon next year because entering a four-year rebuild could cause Major League Baseball to contract them if God doesn’t take care of it with fires and earthquakes first.
Rebuilding, Not Excited About It: Detroit, Kansas City, Chicago (NL), Cincinnati, Oakland, Washington
The Orioles are at a place in the rebuild where things are looking way up. The Diamondbacks and Pirates are around there too. None of these six are there yet. Detroit has the added frustration of thinking they’d turned the corner.
**
Since we last really talked baseball, a lot has happened: There was a draft. There was a Home Run Derby. There was an All-Star Game. There was a whole weekend of baseball on the front end of that.
I don’t have much to say about the draft—the teams with large bonus pools are getting good value into their farm systems, we’ll see how all of it shakes out, I haven’t looked yet to see if FanGraphs has everybody who was drafted into their farm system calculations yet. I don’t have much to say about the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game either, beyond what I said in the notes those days. We will, though, go through the on and off-field action from last weekend and the days in between. We’re only focusing on the current biggest stories, so apologies if something gets lost in the wash. We’ll have a little Cubs section at the bottom, for those who come here for Cubs things.
On the field last weekend:
- The Yankees took two of three from the Red Sox, thoroughly smoking Boston in the games they won. With the Rays taking two of three from the Orioles, ending that win streak, and the Blue Jays winning the last three of their series against the Royals, Tampa Bay now sits in second in that division, 13 back of the Yankees, 1.5 up on the Blue Jays, 3.5 up on the Red Sox, and five games up on Baltimore.
- The White Sox took two of their last three against the Twins, winning that four-day set three games to one. The Guardians were on their way to a sweep of the Tigers before Sunday’s game was postponed. Minnesota leads there, with Cleveland two games back and Chicago a game back of Cleveland.
- Seattle notched another sweep, taking down the Rangers in Texas. Their gap behind the Astros is still nine games, but they’re into the front end of the Wild Card picture, a game ahead of the Blue Jays and half a game back of the Rays.
- Atlanta took two of the weekend three against the Nationals after also winning on Thursday. The Mets swept a doubleheader with the Cubs on Saturday but lost the finale Sunday to enter the All-Star Break two and a half games ahead in the East.
- With the Padres taking two of three from the Diamondbacks while the Giants rallied back from Thursday’s loss to take the next three against the Brewers, and with the Cardinals winning both their games against the Reds before Sunday’s finale was rained out, and with the Phillies holding the Marlins to one total run over a three-game sweep, the NL Wild Card picture now breaks down such that the Padres sit two games ahead of the Phillies and Cardinals, who straddle the final playoff spot and are trailed by San Francisco by half a game. Tight, tight race over there. The Cardinals are only half a game back of the Brewers, too.
Off/around the field this last week:
- Mike Trout’s on the IL with those back spasms, which did end up keeping him out of the All-Star Game.
- Tyler Mahle should return from the IL and start on Sunday, giving the righty probably two starts before the trade deadline, at which he could be moved, potentially for a pretty nice return. Mahle’s under club control for all of 2023, and he’s been one of baseball’s best pitchers the last 24 months, accumulating nearly seven fWAR over that stretch.
- Chris Sale had to leave Sunday’s game against the Yankees in the first inning after being hit in the pinky by a ball hit back at him. He had surgery on Monday to repair the break, and while he may return this season, it’s unlikely that would come before September. Terrible for the Red Sox, who one could argue are the most likely Wild Card Hunter to sell.
- The Tigers are giving top prospect Spencer Torkelson a break, sending him down to AAA for a while to reset. Torkelson is hitting under .200 at the MLB level this year, and it isn’t one of those sub-.200 seasons where he’s actually getting on base a ton, hitting for power, etc. It’s the traditional, bad kind of sub-.200.
The Cubs:
- Mark Leiter Jr. has been optioned to the minors. Matt Swarmer has been designated for assignment. Daniel Norris has been designated for assignment.
- Erich Uelmen and Steven Brault have each been called up from Iowa. Uelmen’s fairly routine, a system depth reliever who could turn into something great but will probably just be an up/down arm for a minute. Brault’s more intriguing. He was good at points during his time with the Pirates and it appears he doesn’t have enough service time to reach free agency until 2024, so he could provide some bullpen or back-end rotation value over the next year and a half here.
- I trust the front office more than myself when it comes to draft picks, so I don’t have any issue with the Cubs’ picks but I wouldn’t have any issue with the Cubs’ picks unless they drafted a known serial ax murderer and let him room with our beloved Adbert Alzolay. I’m assuming it was a perfectly fine draft, and I’m excited to see which guys slot in highly when everyone’s signed and we can reexamine the farm system (and where it shakes out in the league as a whole).
What Milan Momcilovic Means for Iowa State
Iowa State picked up a commitment recently from four-star forward Milan Momcilovic out of Pewaukee, Wisconsin. He’s the second four-star in the 2023 class, and with a transfer-built, senior-heavy rotation this year, it’s important to bring in young talent.
The thing about recruiting in the age of the transfer portal is that it’s not permanent, but it does help you build your floor. You can do worse than your recruiting classes, when it comes to your eventual talent (because guys can transfer out just as they can transfer in), but most of the time, players are transferring out because they either aren’t good enough to play for you or they’re too good to keep playing for you. In the former case, you clearly have better players. In the latter case, the players left behind shouldn’t be bad, and you have some reputational benefit (see: Hunter, Tyrese). So, recruiting classes are a soft floor, but they’re a floor nonetheless.
At the moment, ISU ranks 7th in the country in 247’s recruiting rankings, but with so much cake left to be baked, it’s more useful to look back at where other two-prospect-both-four-star classes rank. This past year, that was 35th nationally, which is a solid place for T.J. Otzelberger’s program to be, especially with potential additions still incoming (Omaha Biliew would be one of the best recruits in ISU history if the program can pull it off).
A Different Kind of Rebuild
The Sixers, famous for their love of construction, are taking on the physical kind of that thing, announcing a proposal this morning for a brand-new arena in City Center. It’s expected to be ready for games in 2031 if approved.
This effort is exciting for a bunch of reasons, but the most exciting one is the possibility that we may not be wholly pivoting to suburban complexes when it comes to professional sports stadiums. The Braves’ complex is nice, but you don’t want sports to make you think of the Truman Show. The Bears’ proposed Arlington Heights complex has a similar sense around it. The Sixers playing downtown? Maybe moves into cities are more an NBA thing than an MLB or NFL one (and to be reasonable about this, you do need more space for a football field than you do for a baseball field than you do for a hockey rink or basketball court), but it’s still a good sign. Suburban stadiums just aren’t the kind of thing we want our society to be about. Teams are supposed to belong to cities.
This might not be great for the Eagles, Phillies, and Flyers, all of whom currently share at least parking lot with the Sixers, but another interested party here? Villanova. The Wildcats currently play a share of their home games down in Wells Fargo Arena. Getting to play them downtown, if they can manage an agreement with the franchise? That would be a whole lot better of a time for students and fans, even if the former would still have a long way to travel to get into the city.
Other NBA news we’ve missed:
- The Jazz and Knicks are trying to work out a Donovan Mitchell trade, but they’re far apart. Danny Ainge reportedly asked for Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin, Quentin Grimes, and six first-round picks (which you’d assume might turn into pretty darn good picks, given the Knicks are the Knicks).
- Russell Westbrook is splitting up with his agent while the Lakers try to trade him and struggle to find suitors.
- Shaedon Sharpe won’t need surgery for his labral tear, and the expectation is currently that he’ll be active for training camp.
- Thunder first-round pick Ousmane Dieng has a small “chip fracture” in his right wrist, but he’s expected to be ready to go by training camp.
- The Spurs have extended Keldon Johnson’s contract by four years. The Thunder extended Kenrich Williams’s by four years as well.
- Miles Bridges has been charged with three felony counts from his domestic abuse/child abuse arrest last month.
- The Blazers won the Summer League championship. Keegan Murray was named Summer League MVP.
Holy Playoff Race
Want some format-based drama? NASCAR’s win-and-in playoff setup is making history, with Christopher Bell becoming the season’s 14th winner on Sunday at New Hampshire and pushing Kevin Harvick, 9th in points, out of the 16-team field as things currently run. Martin Truex Jr., 4th in points, is now on the bubble. Ryan Blaney, 3rd in points, is close to the bubble.
The new car was supposed to create more competition, and it’s done that. Trackhouse has ascended. Nobody is far-and-away dominating the season. Meanwhile, the narratives have managed to remain compelling. Most of this can be attributed to Ross Chastain’s willingness or unconscious inclination to stir up trouble, but that counts, as does the simple tendency to have exciting individual races, which NASCAR’s pulled off. Having lots of different winners is a boring formula, but NASCAR’s proving an exception to that rule, and they’ve now gotten so many winners that three of the sport’s biggest names have a ton to race for over these final six pre-playoff races.
Meanwhile, IndyCar’s championship race also remains tight, but there’s the continued problem of getting people to tune in. I’m trying to follow IndyCar and I have no idea what happened Sunday save that Scott Dixon won and the race was in or around Toronto. That’s an issue.
**
We’ll catch up on the NFL and NHL tomorrow. In the meantime:
Viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:
- 1:10 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Houston – Game 1, Montgomery vs. Javier (MLB TV)
- 1:10 PM EDT: Texas @ Miami, Gray vs. López (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- 6:40 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Houston – Game 2, German vs. Garcia (MLB TV)
- 10:00 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Los Angeles, Rodón vs. White (ESPN)
Good day of games! The Astros trail the Yankees by 4.5 for the top seed in the AL entering the day.
