Hey there.
Pur-Poo
I’m sorry. That was mean. But goodness, Purdue, every time I think you’ve gotten it squared away you go put up a stinker, and last night’s might’ve been the worst yet.
Michigan, of course, is better than they’ve played. They’ve underachieved, and when they perform how they’re capable of performing, they can do things like hang 82 on 62 possessions against a terrible Purdue defense. If they end up on the 9-line, where we currently project them, a 1-seed is going to be in significant danger.
But still…that Purdue defense is terrible. By KenPom, it’s the third-worst in the Big Ten. Nightmare of a defense.
Purdue does have the best offense in the country, but when you let teams score at will, that offense needs to be even better than the best in the country to be taken seriously as a national contender.
Could Purdue win the Big Ten? Yes. They’re probably the conference tournament favorites. Will Purdue win the national championship? It really doesn’t seem that way.
Bracketology Notes
With our latest bracketology (NCAAT, NIT), a few notes:
Gonzaga isn’t a 1-seed, largely because they lack as many good wins as some of the teams around them. There’s an element here, though, where Gonzaga could rise again pretty fast. Their conference schedule is backloaded—more than half of their league games have come against national postseason non-factors, whereas four of their final five come against Saint Mary’s, San Francisco, and Santa Clara (who just eked into our NIT projection). This gives them some beef, and if they sweep it—a reasonable expectation, but one our model doesn’t hold—yes, I would guess they’d be a 1-seed, by all means. If they don’t sweep it, though, they’ll either have picked up a bad loss (losing at Pepperdine, losing at home to Santa Clara) or missed out on a shot at a good win (Saint Mary’s at home or on the road, at San Francisco). Since that’s the median expectation right now—a 4-1 finish followed by a WCC Tournament championship—that’s where our model has them, and we should mention they could also move up with a bad loss by one or more of the teams ahead of them (specifically, I have Auburn and Kansas in mind).
Does this mean I don’t trust our model? Yes and no. Yes, in that our model needs a few updates (we’re low on resources this year, but we try to be high on transparency) and it’s possible those will benefit Gonzaga once we get them in (though they also might not). No, in that most bracketology is reflective and Gonzaga has a less advantageous rest-of-the-way than Kentucky and Baylor and Kansas and even probably Auburn. We’re low on the Zags, but a lot of that is their inability, by virtue of their conference, to beat another top ten team and the possibility, by virtue of probability, that they’ll lose once more before Selection Sunday.
Another team those updates might help is Rutgers. No, not in the NCAA Tournament world. In the NIT world.
Rutgers has now beaten Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, and Michigan. All of those wins came at home, but they still won the games. We don’t have them in our NIT field, and to be transparent again, we don’t have them particularly close. Nine spots out.
Our model might underestimate the power of big wins. It also might overestimate the impact of November, which went terribly for the Scarlet Knights. It also might underestimate how injuries are treated (Geo Baker missed a bad loss and a half). These are all among the things we need to look into. The big win thing, though, specifically, was something that probably buoyed Michigan State last year, and our model missed that, so it’s especially on our radar.
On the other side, Rutgers is expected to go 2-6 from here. Change that to 1-7, which is comparably probable to 3-5 or 3-6, and they’re below .500 overall and almost certainly out of the field. Again, reflective vs. predictive, and we’re still over a month out from bracketing time.
Closer to the bracket in our model but perhaps even more infuriating in the eyes of select members of the public is Virginia, whom we have two spots out of the NIT. This really is a reflective vs. predictive thing. Virginia has one of the best wins in the country, over Duke on the road. They’ve also beaten Providence on a neutral court. That’s about all they have, and we don’t expect the Providence win to age as well as it’s aged so far, and we wouldn’t be surprised if Duke gets embarrassed another time or two, and did you know Virginia’s only 76th in KenPom? Three spots behind South Dakota State? Beating Duke didn’t magically make them a much better team. They’re better than we thought, yeah, but they’ve got to keep proving it. Go 5-4 from here instead of 4-4, as our model expects, and our model has them in the field. Go 4-4, though, and it’ll be white knuckle. Or so it seems right now.
Can Iowa State Turn It Around Back in Ames?
The Cyclones return home tomorrow, hosting Kansas State at 3:00 PM Central Time on ESPNU. Kansas State’s feisty, with wins at Texas and home against Texas Tech and no real bad losses to be seen. They play strong perimeter defense, and they might have Selton Miguel back, which won’t hurt. Iowa State is, as far as I know, going to be at full strength, though it’s still unclear why Tre Jackson didn’t play the other night, and T.J. Otzelberger made a comment today about shuffling lineups more here down the stretch.
Overall, it’s a good opportunity. Kansas State’s a solid team, but they’re the worst in the Big 12, and Iowa State is playing at home, which matters. Aside from perimeter defense, there isn’t anything the Wildcats do exceptionally well, and Iowa State—perhaps to a fault, given the possible underutilization of Aljaž Kunc and Caleb Grill—isn’t particularly reliant on the three-point shot. It’s the kind of thing where if ISU plays its game and plays it well, they should get a victory out of the thing.
The Weekend Action
Among Contenders, Gonzaga hosts Saint Mary’s (Saturday, 10:00 PM EST, ESPN2), Arizona goes to Washington (Saturday, 6:00 PM EST, Pac-12 Networks), and Kentucky hosts Florida (Saturday, 4:00 PM EST, ESPN). Among Possibilities, Houston hosts Memphis (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST, ABC), Baylor hosts Texas (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST, ESPN2), and Kansas hosts Oklahoma (Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS). Yes, we’ve eliminated Purdue as even a Possibility. That defense is too much of a liability.
Other good ones include tonight’s UConn/Xavier and Fresno State/Colorado State matchups (7:00 PM EST, FS1 and 9:30 PM EST, CBSSN, respectively); tomorrow’s UCLA/USC (10:00 PM EST, ESPN), Ohio State/Michigan (6:00 PM EST, ESPN), Arkansas/Alabama (12:00 PM EST, SEC Network), Indiana/Michigan State (3:30 PM EST, FOX), and San Francisco/Santa Clara (6:00 PM EST, Stadium) games; and Sunday’s Colorado State/Boise State (4:00 PM EST, FS1) and Northwestern/Illinois (2:00 PM EST, BTN) showdowns. Plus, of course, the Super Bowl.
Should be a fun weekend, might learn some things about Houston and Baylor, might find ourselves reconfiguring all sorts of perspectives come Monday. Enjoy, and go Cyclones.
