A lot of basketball since we last spoke, and more on its way.
LSU Isn’t It
We updated our bracketology today, and LSU, predictably, fell off the 1-line after that home loss to Arkansas. They’re still on the 2-line, and while that’s higher than the national average, their defense is really, really good, and they’ve got wins over Kentucky and Tennessee already, the former of which might be a win over a 1-seed when this is over with (Kentucky would likely be favored right now against Auburn on a neutral floor). The Arkansas loss hurts, but Arkansas is now likely a tournament team, and the Tigers might only be underdogs four more times, and only underdogs to a degree where they’re still likely to split those four.
So, no, LSU isn’t it, but they’re a bigger national player than they’re getting credit for being, provided they can survive that top-of-the-SEC gauntlet without, say, six or seven more losses.
Gonzaga’s Just Fine After All
Taking LSU’s place on the top line is Gonzaga, who is just pummeling teams. It started with Pepperdine last weekend and we didn’t notice. It continued with BYU on Thursday and we noticed. Now, with Baylor inexplicably struggling (side note on Baylor: They were doing so well that they’re still our overall number one seed after losing two straight at home, the latter of which came against a bubble-team-equivalent in ineligible Oklahoma State), Gonzaga’s rated by KenPom to be the top team in the country, and if they play like they did against BYU when the two meet again in a few weeks, they’re close to a favorite to run the table in the WCC. Their downside remains high, because they play a good number of basically low-majors, but they might be the national title favorite again. What a difference a week can make.
Two-Bid OVC?
With Murray State beating Belmont in Nashville on Saturday, the Racers become the team to beat in the Ohio Valley Conference. Belmont, though…could still make it. Even if they lose the rematch, then lose another rematch in the OVC Championship, the Bruins may only have losses to Ohio on the road, LSU on the road, Dayton in Florida, and Murray State in three places. They have wins over Saint Louis (A), Chattanooga (H), Iona (N), and Drake (N), which isn’t a great list but pulls up their nonconference strength of schedule high enough to not be the red flag it was last year. They might not be able to afford any more losses, and they could really use at least one of SLU/Chattanooga/Iona getting into at-large bid territory (all three conceivably could, and it might be fair to bet on at least one to do it), but Belmont’s still in a good spot, and by extension, the OVC’s in a great spot.
Purdue Figured It Out (But Illinois’s Still the Big Ten Favorite)
I hope you got to watch yesterday’s game between Illinois and Purdue, because it was amazing. Zach Edey took it to the Illini early, Purdue got Kofi Cockburn out of the game with fouls, Sasha Stefanovic came through late, Eric Hunter provided an abundance of good minutes off the bench, and the Boilermakers finally again looked like the team they should be, which is one capable of winning the national championship. For Illinois, Andre Curbelo played like a man possessed, Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk neutralized Trevion Williams for long stretches, and the team navigated a lot of time without Cockburn while still hanging with their top Big Ten competition.
Purdue, clearly, is better than Illinois. I was wrong to think otherwise. This isn’t just because they beat them on the road. Purdue would be favored in a rematch, and would’ve been favored on a neutral court to begin with. Still, it’s not an insignificant data point, and since one of the questions about Purdue was whether they could rise to any sort of occasion, it was a big narrative victory as well.
Still, Illinois has that head start. The Illini are a game and a half up on the Boilers. They’re still the league favorite. And I don’t think you can walk away from yesterday unimpressed by Illinois. They’re not in the Purdue/Gonzaga/Baylor/Villanova realm, but they’re in that deep next pack, and a 1-seed still isn’t out of the question, especially considering half their losses so far came without Cockburn or Curbelo and the other half came in each’s first game back.
Oregon Isn’t Stopping
Oregon did it again on Saturday, beating USC to cap off a three-win road trip through Corvallis and Los Angeles which took them from the edge of the CBI to the bubble. The Arizona State loss isn’t going away, but UCLA and USC are good wins, and Oregon looks much more capable of beating teams it should than it did, well, back when it lost to Arizona State. Teams like this, which started the year with high expectations and absolutely stunk but are now winning, are terrifying, and while I trust our model and our model is accounting for the world in which they could stink again, the scenario in which they climb into tournament territory and don’t look back is very plausible, to put it lightly.
Iowa State Won in the Mud, Goes Back Down Tonight
How about those Cyclones?
We were worried, heading into January. Six straight games against tournament teams, three on the road, and one of the home ones against the best team in the country. So far, ISU’s 2-3, which isn’t outstanding but is far from bad. They’ve won the games you’d ask a team like them to win, and the latest was a masterpiece, with Texas turning the ball over twenty times, Longhorns fans losing their mind at Marcus Carr online, and eight assists out of Tyrese Hunter to go with Gabe Kalscheur’s six made threes. Evan Miyakawa has Hunter as the Cyclones’ best player, and it’s hard to argue. His defense makes the whole thing happen. His offense is solid and keeps getting better. What a consequential retention by T.J. Otzelberger.
Tonight will probably be ugly. Texas Tech’s the opponent, in Lubbock, and while the Red Raiders are capable of being bad (they lost by eleven at Kansas State over the weekend, scoring just 51), they’ve also recently beaten both Kansas and Baylor, the latter on the road. Terrence Shannon is back. Kevin McCullar is back. Nothing to lose for ISU, but a whole lot to gain. A win might pull the Cyclones up alongside Texas and Tech in the race for third in the league, at least in projections (Texas plays K-State, so they should remain a game up in live standings).
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Viewing schedule tonight:
Right now: Baylor @ West Virginia, ESPN2
Can Baylor finally bounce back? They’re up four at the half in Morgantown. They had a big cushion to go through a stretch like this, but their shot at winning the Big 12 is a lot narrower than it used to be. Kansas might be the favorite right now, and while Baylor should get a 1-seed almost no matter what, it’s not a full-on guarantee, and neither is being the first overall seed, which could be huge (lets them stay in Texas until the Final Four, when they’d only have to go to Louisiana).
7:00 PM EST: Kansas @ Oklahoma, ESPN
The most ambitious among Iowa State fans are pulling for an Oklahoma win here to open the door a little wider in the Cyclones’ conference title push. I’m not sold on that, but I wouldn’t mind the possibility. Should be a good game regardless, with OU trying to bounce back from a two-loss trip through Austin and Fort Worth last week and Baylor looming on Saturday.
9:00 PM EST: Iowa State @ Texas Tech, ESPNU
Look, sorry, if the Big 12 schedules three games in three time slots on a Tuesday, they’ll probably be the best games, especially with most of the SEC’s heft taking the night off.
11:00 PM EST: Utah State @ Fresno State, CBSSN
For the nightcap…Utah State’s hurting after losing to Air Force and then dropping two of their next three. Had bubble aspirations recently, now trying to get up into NIT-land. Fresno State has bubble aspirations of their own. The Mountain West had more teams in our bracket today than the ACC, and that passes the smell test. It isn’t a better league, but it has a better fourth-best team/résumé (Wyoming), and that team/résumé is better than both of these guys.
