This is a small thought, and I started looking into data on it but I wasn’t finding the data to be very straightforward, so take this with those caveats. I wonder, though, thinking of how much trouble the Broncos seemed to have getting snaps off before the play clock expired in Seattle, and thinking of how impotent the Packers offense looked on Sunday after similarly struggling in Week 1 of last year, whether there really are some issues during Week 1 for offenses whose quarterbacks didn’t play in preseason games. Tom Brady? Another notable name on the list? He played fine against Dallas, but the offense wasn’t exactly humming.
This, on its own, is probably not terribly difficult to examine if you’re willing to take the time to pull together a robust dataset. What’s a little trickier is determining whether the payoff for those saved reps is worth it. Especially now that the regular season’s seventeen games long, how much does Week 1 really matter? It was certainly a bad bellwether when applied to the 2021 Packers.
Allen Lazard Practiced Today
We’re a little late on the final touches of these notes, so we’ve got the first Packers injury report of the week, and Allen Lazard is listed as a limited participant after not practicing at all last week. Elsewhere, David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins are listed as limited participants, as they were last week, while Keisean Nixon and Quay Walker are each listed as full participants, which is a bit of a relief. Krys Barnes did go on the IR (high ankle sprain and calf injury, but not seeing anything about a broken bone)—and tackle Caleb Jones was signed from the practice squad while safety Mike Brown was signed to the practice squad—but the defense should only be down Barnes on Sunday night. On the offensive line, aside from Bakhtiari and Jenkins, Jon Runyan isn’t practicing as he goes through concussion protocol, and Jake Hanson is listed as having a shoulder injury but was a full participant at practice.
The Yankees Appear Safe
Two days into the Rays/Jays five-game set and one day into the Red Sox/Yankees one-game set, New York has gained crucial breathing room. In the standings, they’ve held even with the Blue Jays and gained a game on the Rays, but the Rays entered the week as the closer of the two, so the Yankees have gained half a game on second place, and every half a game is a big deal right now. Last night, an aggressive decision by Aaron Boone to pinch run for Giancarlo Stanton at first base with the bases loaded in the tenth may have been the difference, as Estevan Florial scored (though he did fall down) what turned out to be the winning run on a Gleyber Torres two-out double. Aaron Judge homered twice and is up to 57 on the year, with his new FanGraphs Depth Charts projection up to 63. The Yankees have played 142 games, for those tracking this against Ruth’s shorter-season number.
The number FanGraphs is putting on the Yankees winning the East is now around 95%, or one-in-twenty. One-in-twenty things do happen (once, on average, every twenty times), but they’re unlikely. The Yanks probably have this wrapped up.
Other races:
NL East
The Mets do not have this wrapped up, dropping their first two to the Cubs while Atlanta’s split in San Francisco. Half-game gap there, and they’re even in the loss column.
AL Central
The Guardians took their first two against the Angels, and with the White Sox and Twins off on Monday, that means the Cleveland lead has stretched half a game wider entering the day. The White Sox and Twins remain buried in the Wild Card picture.
One thought on the White Sox, while we’re here, and we’ve shared this thought before: They haven’t underachieved as much as people say they have. This roster is just not that talented. They were projected to win 87 games as a team playing in the AL Central. That’s not some pennant contender right there, and their current 83-win projection isn’t some dramatic failure to live up to attention.
NL Wild Card
The Padres, Phillies, and Brewers all won last night, holding things steady here. Corbin Burnes faces Adam Wainwright tonight, trying to pull the Brewers within one of San Diego should Milwaukee get some help from Seattle this afternoon.
News
The Rays get Shane McClanahan back tomorrow, or they’ll try to again. The last time they tried this, he didn’t actually start the start, feeling something in his shoulder while warming up. Brandon Lowe is right back on the IL, but Tampa Bay remains in the thick of a three-way battle for seeding with the Blue Jays and Mariners.
The Astros are thinking Justin Verlander’s return will come on Friday, a welcome sight for Houston as they continue their playoff preparation. They are the clear AL favorite, though by no means over the field.
I don’t know how big of a deal this is, but Corbin Burnes chirped at the Brewers’ front office when asked if he thinks extension negotiations could begin for him and the club this offseason (he’ll be a free agent after 2024), saying, “You would think maybe there would have been some initial talks last offseason, but nothing.” Again, only read it, didn’t see a clip, don’t know the tone or anything like that, but there’ve been other reports of frustration out of the Brewers’ clubhouse after the Josh Hader trade, and it’s fair to wonder if the aggressive front office has rubbed some players the wrong way. On the one side: Why would you start extension talks when Burnes’s value’s the highest? On the other: You need your leaders to know you’re committed to them, I’d think.
The Cubs
On the Cubs side, it’s been a good two days, the team winning its first series in a few weeks while getting great outings from Javier Assad and Adrian Sampson. It’s been a long time since the Cubs have had rotation depth, and they have few sure things in this sphere of quadruple-A guys they keep trotting out there, but they do have a lot of options, and that’s hopeful for next year.
On the newsier side, Rafael Ortega broke his finger trying to bunt against Jacob deGrom and will miss the rest of the year, possibly ending his time with the franchise. Who knows, though. We’ve thought it might be over for him before. He’s 31, he had a 95 wRC+ this year and a 122 wRC+ in 2021, so a baseline projection for him given aging and all that would probably be to play a little better than replacement level next year. It’s possible the Cubs want that serviceable depth, but they can realistically probably find it in their farm system with higher upside.
Speaking of upside, Jared Young might get the call-up tonight to replace Ortega. He was a late scratch in Des Moines. Young is 27 years old, plays corner infield and corner outfield, and has been a below-average hitter at AAA, but hey, I doubted Javier Assad and he cut up the Mets a little on Monday. Anyway, if you see him, that’s who he is.
Some minor league playoffs are underway, and the South Bend Cubs won in their opener while the Myrtle Beach Pelicans lost. The Pelicans get Charleston at home tonight, attempting to even the three-game series and avoid elimination. South Bend beat the Cedar Rapids Kernels with a dramatic eighth-inning comeback and try to clinch the division tonight. The winners of these division series go on to play for the Midwest League and Carolina League championships.
The Arizona Fall League is not underway, but when it starts, the Cubs will send Brennen Davis, Miguel Amaya if he’s healthy, and five other promising but lower-profile prospects (Matt Mervis, Bailey Horn, Zac Leigh, Riley Martin, and Sheldon Reed). Mervis—an undrafted free agent out of Duke after that weird five-round 2020 draft—has been a hot name lately, rising through the minors rapidly and raking at all three levels this year. Horn—a reliever acquired from the White Sox in the Ryan Tepera deal—has had an up-and-down year so far, but his upside is high, and the Cubs have recently been having success with guys like that in the minors. Leigh’s similar to Horn in overall results, but has been more consistent. Martin’s been a long reliever for South Bend, but like Leigh and Horn isn’t terribly hyped. Reed, like the other three, is in his mid-20’s and has shown upside but is getting close to needing to produce for the Cubs to stay committed.
Finally, David Kaplan is reporting that there’s expected to be mutual interest between Trea Turner and the Cubs this offseason, as well as between Carlos Rodón and the Cubs. I do think Kaplan plays the role of a dumbass a lot for engagement’s sake, but this is a different arena, so it’s likely he’s hearing something here. Even if he is, though, couldn’t we all have put that together? Those are guys the Cubs will be interested in, same as Bogaerts & Correa & Swanson & deGrom & etc., and almost any free agent willing to hit the open market should be interested in the Cubs. The bigger news would be that Turner is interested in hitting the open market, and doesn’t just want to extend with Los Angeles (or that Los Angeles doesn’t want to spend that money on Turner).
**
Viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:
MLB (of playoff race significance)
- 1:10 PM EDT: Anaheim @ Cleveland, Sandoval vs. Quantrill (MLB TV)
- 2:10 PM EDT: Colorado @ Chicago (AL), Freeland vs. Cease (MLB TV)
- 3:45 PM EDT: Atlanta @ San Francisco, Morton vs. Rodón (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- 4:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ Seattle, Clevinger vs. Castillo (MLB TV)
- 6:40 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ Miami, Gibson vs. Cabrera (MLB TV)
- 7:07 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Toronto, Rasmussen vs. Stripling (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Cubs @ New York (NL), Smyly vs. Peterson (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Boston, Cortes vs. Bello (MLB TV)
- 7:40 PM EDT: Kansas City @ Minnesota, Greinke vs. Gray (MLB TV)
- 7:45 PM EDT: Milwaukee @ St. Louis, Burnes vs. Wainwright (FS1)
Soccer (of significance to our futures portfolios)
- 2:45 PM EDT: Queens Park Rangers @ Millwall
- 2:45 PM EDT: Bristol City @ Norwich City
- 2:45 PM EDT: Blackpool @ Rotherham United
- 3:00 PM EDT: Sunderland @ Reading (ESPN+)
