Joe’s Notes: Please Keep Doubting Nate Silver

A year and a half ago, I got a beer with a friend of a friend. He was an extremely well-educated guy. Extremely knowledgeable about numbers. Extremely up-to-date on the news and world events and whatnot. A very culturally engaged person. The recent election came up, and in talking about how it was more uncertain than expected, this person said, “Nate Silver should be fired.”

I let it go, but it’s stuck with me, Nate Silver fan that I am. What I think this person was doing was conflating Nate Silver with the polling industry (and ignoring the self-employed-ish nature of Nate Silver’s work—my impression is FiveThirtyEight just keeps getting bought by the highest bidder, making it hard to literally fire Nate Silver), which, to be fair, was off by a decent amount in 2020. Three to four percentage points is quite a bit. It’s fair to be exasperated by that, especially given how much even small bits of uncertainty (Donald Trump’s early surprisingly strong performance on Election Night) threw off our national stability (had polling been better in Florida, the results would have been less surprising and would have provoked less of a cultural reaction believing Trump was really going to pull off another upset). But to blame Nate Silver?

The thing I come back to with Nate Silver, and with FiveThirtyEight, and with polling and election forecasts and that whole thing in general, is this: In 2020, we used the FiveThirtyEight model to guide a collection of bets on the election, and those bets did well for us. If betting markets are supposed to be a good proxy for public opinion, FiveThirtyEight’s model was better at predicting the results of the election than public opinion was. Which is kind of the point.

Anyway, with FiveThirtyEight’s midterm model out, we’re going to be using it. We placed our first collection of midterm bets today.

2020 was a sample of one, but it was decisive, and betting markets were ridiculously poor predictors of that election, something we believe could well happen again. I’m not going to be blogging about politics, or about my personal hopes for who wins and loses each vote. But if cultural dismissal of Nate Silver gives us a path to making money, we’re going to use that path. So, if that friend of a friend is reading this, thank you. Please keep doubting Nate Silver.

Today’s Realignment Thoughts

If you have an ESPN+ subscription, Pete Thamel’s piece about reactions throughout the industry to yesterday’s UCLA/USC news is a good read. If you don’t, well, the point I thought was most illuminating was this one (emphasis mine):

“Notre Dame is well-positioned from a TV perspective, as its NBC deal ends in 2025. If the Playoff path closes completely, it would have an issue. But TV partners would likely still want Notre Dame included in any postseason. Unless that postseason gets too narrow. (The SEC likely wouldn’t block Notre Dame from the postseason, as it would then likely force the Irish to the Big Ten.)”

Translation? Notre Dame can do whatever it wants, and neither the Big Ten nor the SEC can stop them. If the SEC wants to close the Playoff door, the Irish can and will join the Big Ten. If the Big Ten wants to close the Playoff door, the Irish can and will join the SEC. The value of the possibility that the Irish will join down the road makes it worth it, for each of the two conferences, to keep Jack Swarbrick and his people happy. Notre Dame is the most powerful single school in college sports right now.

The second thought is that the Big 12’s in a tricky place concerning how to respond to yesterday’s news. It would make sense in every traditional way for the Big 12 to try to poach the Arizona schools, Utah, and Colorado, but dooming the Pac-12 might only make the Big Ten stronger by sending Washington, Oregon, and Stanford flocking to Kevin Warren’s door. The four schools which make the most Big 12 sense are not the four most valuable long-term acquisitions, in all likelihood. Maybe Arizona will win a national championship in men’s basketball with Tommy Lloyd. Maybe Utah will grow through the same forces pushing BYU forward. But neither is on par with Oregon and Washington in terms of long-term strength of brand, and Stanford is uniquely valuable as 1) the most worldly significant school in the Power Five by leaps and bounds and 2) the best or second-best athletic department in the country in lower-money sports. Adding the whole remaining Pac-10 doesn’t make sense for the Big 12, Oregon and Washington and Stanford don’t make sense for the Big 12, Arizona and Arizona State and Utah and Colorado do make sense for the Big 12 (ASU’s got great wrestling), but a weaker-than-the-Big-12-but-still-a-power-conference Pac-12 might be the Big 12’s best route to long-term stability and significance. Weird incentives there.

The third thought is that the Kansas-to-the-Big-East rumors don’t add up. Football’s too valuable, even if your football program’s traditionally been terrible. A loud secret within college football is that the bottom rungs of the Big Ten afford teams more wins than the bottom rungs of the Big 12. Kansas would make bowls every now and then in the Big Ten, especially if UCLA and USC continue to struggle (average record of 7-5 between those two schools over the last decade). Plus, the basketball’s better than in the Big East anyway.

The fourth thought is that Clemson is very lucky it figured out football to the degree it did at the time it did. If this were 2010 again, Clemson would not be a power player. And by that token, and by the token we alluded to yesterday where they might not be able to sustain the winning, Clemson wants to move to the SEC fast. There is no time to waste for Clemson. Which could, incidentally, shake the whole thing up all over again.

So with that, the fifth thought is this: The thing that creates motion here is motion. Movement creates movement. If nobody moves from here, we could be fairly stable for a while, with the Pac-12 absorbing a few Mountain West schools and/or Gonzaga while the SEC and Big Ten sit pretty for a few seasons at 16 teams apiece. If somebody does move, though, it could really accelerate things. The situation is a tinderbox.

Simultaneously, there’s a lot of value in being the entity which acts next if you’re an entity with a lot to lose. If you’re Stanford, Washington, or Oregon, you want to be in the Big Ten, and you want to be in the Big Ten now. If you’re UNC, Duke, or Miami, you want to figure out whether the ACC is a viable Big Ten/SEC competitor immediately, and if it isn’t, you want to figure out which of those two makes more sense for you. If you’re Clemson, you are banging on the SEC’s door. So on, so forth. The only entity which can act with complete patience is Notre Dame. Notre Dame is not getting left behind.

Iowa State: Some Good News

Iowa State’s landed Jelani Hamilton, a four-star shooting guard in the class of 2023. First pickup in that class. Four-stars are always a good result for Iowa State, at least for the foreseeable future.

NBA Free Agency

Tons going on here, as expected. The highlights since we last did this, with major reliance on The Athletic:

• The uncertainty around Zach LaVine and the Bulls is now certainty. Five-year max contract. The Bulls also picked up Andre Drummond and brought back Derrick Jones Jr.
• Zion Williamson is reportedly going to get a max extension from the Pelicans, which, I don’t know whether to say I don’t know what choice the Pelicans have or whether I should call this dumb.
• Ja Morant and Karl-Anthony Towns have each agreed to significant extensions with their own teams.
• The Jazz are trading Rudy Gobert to the Timberwolves in exchange for Malik Beasley, Pat Beverley, three more players, and four first-round picks. The Covid guy is going to the team led by the player whose losses from Covid were the most publicly painful.
• The Pacers are sending Malcolm Brogdon to the Celtics in exchange for two players and a first-round pick. A little more commitment than usual to the rebuild for Indiana.
• The Hawks traded Kevin Huerter to the Kings for Justin Holiday, Mo Harkless, and a future first-rounder. Clears some space on the Hawks’ roster, gives the Kings an asset in exchange for assets they weren’t presently using.
• The Knicks’ Jalen Brunson signing is complete.
• Bradley Beal’s extension with the Wizards is complete.
• The 76ers picked up P.J. Tucker and Danuel House.
• The Thunder re-signed Lu Dort on a five-year deal.
• The Blazers re-signed Jusuf Nurkić and Anfernee Simons, each to a four-year deal.
• The Knicks re-signed Mitchell Robinson to a four-year deal and added Isaiah Hartenstein on a two-year deal.
• The Bucks re-signed Bobby Portis on a four-year deal and picked up Joe Ingles.
• The Warriors re-signed Kevon Looney to a three-year deal.
• The Pistons re-signed Marvin Bagley to a three-year deal.
• The Rockets re-signed Jae’Sean Tate on a three-year deal.
• The Grizzlies re-signed Tyus Jones to a two-year deal.
• The Clippers re-signed Nicolas Batum to a two-year deal, and made the John Wall pickup official.
• The Nets re-signed Nic Claxton on a two-year deal and picked up Patty Mills.
• The Magic re-signed Mo Bamba and Gary Harris, each on a two-year deal.
• The Heat re-signed Victor Oladipo to a one-year deal and picked up Dewayne Dedmon.
• Robin Lopez is going to Cleveland to be Jarrett Allen’s backup. Ricky Rubio re-signed with the Cavs himself.
• The Raptors signed Otto Porter Jr to a one or two-year deal and Chris Boucher to a three-year deal while re-signing Thaddeus Young to a two-year deal.
• The Celtics are expected to add Danilo Gallinari.
• The Timberwolves grabbed Kyle Anderson.
• The Kings picked up Malik Monk.
• The Mavericks are bringing back JaVale McGee.
• The Lakers signed Lonnie Walker IV.
• There is more. We stop here.

Ending the Baseball Week

Heading into the long weekend, here’s the baseball news:

• Juan Soto extension talks with the Nationals are reportedly ongoing, though specific reports on the offers on the table have been denied.
• Chris Bassitt is unexpectedly going on the IL with no designation, suggesting it’s a Covid situation.
• Just after getting Brandon Woodruff back, the Brewers are sending Adrian Houser to the IL with elbow tightness, which is being treated as potentially significant in the narrative. You could do worse than Aaron Ashby as your fourth guy, behind Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Eric Lauer. But you would prefer to have the option of Houser, and the fifth starter slot remains a question mark.
• Mookie Betts could return from the IL as early as Monday, possibly playing second base to spare him long throws from the outfield. Max Scherzer is slated to be activated on Tuesday.
• Casey Close, Excel Sports Management’s lead negotiator on the Freddie Freeman talks with Atlanta, is hitting back after being accused (by Doug Gottlieb, of all people) of not sharing an Atlanta offer with Freeman. In addition, he’s accused the franchise (broadly, no specific names) of, and this is paraphrased, ‘fostering a false narrative.’
• The Marlins are getting Joey Wendle back from the IL, but they’re putting Jorge Soler onto it with something related to his hips.
• The A’s cleared one legal hurdle regarding their proposed new ballpark, which would keep the team in Oakland, but a lot of steps remain in the process. Las Vegas continues to appear the more likely destination.

On the field, yesterday and last night:

• The Guardians beat the Twins on another dramatic home run, this one a walk-off by Andrés Giménez to win the five-game series. The pair enter the weekend separated by a game, with Minnesota on top and hosting Baltimore while Cleveland deals with the Yankees.
• Pirates catcher Michael Perez homered three times, which was the second day in a row a Pirate had done that. Pittsburgh beat the Brewers, 8-7. Milwaukee now leads the Cardinals by a game, with three to play in Pennsylvania while across the state, St. Louis visits the Phillies.
• The Phillies whooped Atlanta, winning 14-4 to stave off a sweep in that set. Atlanta now heads to Cincinnati while the Mets prepare to host the Rangers.
• The Astros beat the Yankees, 2-1, in one of those weird one-game series we’re getting this year due to the lockout forcing some rescheduling. Houston’s hosting the Angels this weekend.
• The Blue Jays beat the Rays, 4-1, behind a strong start from Yusei Kikuchi. First in a four-game set over there.
• The Dodgers took down the Padres, 3-1, to kick off a consequential four games between the two. Beat Joe Musgrove in the process, which is how you want to start a series if that series is against the Padres. Justin Turner homered twice, driving in all three Dodger runs.

As for the Cubs, it was another joyful night at Wrigley, with Christopher Morel continuing his bounce back, notching five hits and homering; Patrick Wisdom homering twice, including a grand slam; and Kyle Hendricks striking out seven while only walking one in six innings of work. Before the game, Jason Heyward went on the 10-day IL and Michael Hermosillo was transferred to the 60-day IL, making room for Narciso Crook, who isn’t a major prospect but has been smoking the ball at AAA for two years now, first for the Reds last season and now for the Iowa Cubs. In unhappy news, David Bote exited the game with shoulder soreness after colliding with Nico Hoerner. Hopefully he’s ok.

It’s a series with the Red Sox this weekend at Wrigley, and thanks to 1) the Red Sox recovering from that terrible start to the year and 2) the Cubs playing well these last two nights, it doesn’t feel like a letdown. Play ball.

Pérez vs. Leclerc, NASCAR vs. Road Courses, IndyCar vs. the World

With Max Verstappen running away with the F1 title this year and Sergio Pérez in second place, a question that’s been asked is whether Red Bull would allow the teammates to compete with one another or if it would order Pérez to let Verstappen win. That question’s been settled, but with Pérez neck and neck with Charles Leclerc for second in the standings, shouldn’t Red Bull prioritize a 1-2 finish over the margin of Verstappen’s standings victory over the field? Verstappen is again a big favorite this weekend, this time at Silverstone in Britain.

NASCAR’s back on a road course, taking on Road America up in Wisconsin. In Austin, passing wasn’t easy, but the race was a thriller. In Sonoma, passing was nigh impossible and had it not been Daniel Suárez’s pulling away for a compelling victory, the race would have been a snoozer. Are those indicative of what to expect this weekend, in what I believe is just the new car’s third race on a road course? I’d lean more towards the Sonoma comparison than the COTA one, but maybe that’s just because of how established the three speedways are.

IndyCar is also on a road course, taking on Mid-Ohio on Sunday. My assumption is that it will be a great race and few will notice because IndyCar lacks interesting personalities and its season championship is too wide open these days.

We’ll have picks for all three races on Sunday.

Hires, Fires

NHL coaching changes all over the place this Canada Day:

• The Jets are hiring Rick Bowness, who stepped down from the Stars’ job a few weeks ago.
• The Bruins are hiring Bowness’s predecessor in Dallas, Jim Montgomery.
• The Sharks have fired Bob Boughner (our source is indicating Boughner is pronounced as the majority of our readers might hope).
• The Red Wings have hired Lightning assistant Derek Lalonde.

In the other hockey news of the day (besides the Nick Paul extension, which—seven years, that’s the thing to know), Flyers goaltending prospect Ivan Fedotov was detained in St. Petersburg and accused of draft-dodging. Lot of speculation about Russian NHL players and what Russia will do to them this summer.

26 Days ‘Til Training Camp

I’m sorry. I didn’t mean to make everyone think summer’s ending. 26 days is a lot! And that’s just until training camp!

Anyway, 26 days ‘til the Packers start practices. No big news from them this week.

***

Viewing schedule for the weekend, second screen rotation in italics:

Friday

• 2:20 PM EDT: Boston @ Cubs, Hill vs. Sampson (MLB TV)
• 3:07 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Toronto, Kluber vs. Berríos (MLB TV)
• 7:10 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Cleveland, Cole vs. Civale (MLB TV)
• 10:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ Los Angeles, Snell vs. Gonsolin (MLB TV)
• 10:15 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ San Francisco, Lynn vs. Cobb (MLB TV)

Saturday

• 12:07 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Toronto, McClanahan vs. Gausman (MLB TV)
• 7:15 PM EDT: Boston @ Cubs, Winckowski vs. Mills (FOX)
• 7:15 PM EDT: San Diego @ Los Angeles, Darvish vs. Anderson (FOX)

Sunday

• 9:55 AM EDT: F1 British Grand Prix (ESPN2)
• 12:30 PM EDT: IndyCar @ Mid-Ohio (NBC)
• 1:37 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Toronto, Baz vs. Stripling (MLB TV)
• 2:20 PM EDT: Boston @ Cubs, TBD vs. Thompson (MLB TV/ESPN+)
• 3:00 PM EDT: NASCAR Cup Series @ Road America (USA Network)
• 4:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ Los Angeles, Gore vs. Kershaw (MLB TV)
• 4:10 PM EDT: Oakland @ Seattle, Montas vs. Ray (MLB TV)
• 7:00 PM EDT: St. Louis @ Philadelphia, Wainwright vs. Wheeler (ESPN)

Monday

• 1:35 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Boston, TBD vs. Wacha (MLB TV)
• 4:10 PM EDT: Cubs @ Milwaukee, Steele vs. Woodruff (MLB TV)
• 6:10 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Arizona, Rodón vs. Bumgarner (MLB TV)
• 7:20 PM EDT: St. Louis @ Atlanta, Hudson vs. Wright (MLB TV)
• 8:10 PM EDT: Minnesota @ Chicago (AL), Bundy vs. Cueto (MLB TV)

A happy Independence Day to all my countrymen.