Pat Hughes will enter Major League Baseball’s Hall of Fame on Sunday, and I can’t think of a Hall of Fame speech I’ve ever been more excited to hear.
Most of this, of course, is Hughes’s significance within my own baseball fanhood. As best I understand it, I’m a Cubs fan because though my dad liked and likes the Giants (he grew up out between Sioux City and Sioux Falls, with no local teams, so he’d listen to the Willie Mays’s opponents’ broadcasts on nights when the AM signal could reach him), the Giants played too late at night for us to pay much attention. The Cubs did not, and Pat Hughes and Ron Santo were on the radio all throughout my childhood. We probably liked those two guys more than we liked the team itself. Considering how the team was run during those years, that’s probably fair.
Another part is that Pat Hughes is a professional speaker, one I’ve heard professionally speak for thousands of hours in my lifetime, and this will nonetheless be a new kind of speaking for him. It’s a little like getting to watch George Harrison play the piano. I know he can probably do it, but how will he approach this new thing?
The most interesting part of my own excitement, though, to me, is Hughes’s humility.
Most Hall of Famers need an ego to get where they get. Michael Jordan is famously not someone who has a lot of harmonious interpersonal relationships. For him to do what he did with his career, it needed to be about him. For a radio broadcaster, the opposite is true: To the extent possible without performing robotically, play-by-play callers must make the thing as little about themselves as possible. There needs to be personality, and there is certainly artistic and technical craft, but it’s a little like photography: At its best, you should forget there’s a person between you and the thing they’re capturing. Hughes is among the best in the world at this. That’s why he’s going into the Hall of Fame.
Even among Ford Frick Award winners, this humility is not always the driving factor. “Humble” is not a word I would use to describe Bob Costas, for example. Hughes, however…Hughes is humble. That’s who he is on the radio every night. My curiosity abounds as to what happens when a humble baseball fan is given the microphone on a day his name is added to the halls of a building built to honor the likes of Babe Ruth.
I’m excited, then, to see how Pat Hughes handles a big occasion spent talking about himself. I’m excited to hear what the Hall of Fame means to him after years and years of professionally reflecting and reflecting on the sport of baseball. I’m excited to see the Cooperstown sun shine on the dappled crowd before him, and for the first time, to see a crowd there to see him, rather than to experience the game through his eyes. It’s a great weekend in the sporting world. Pat & Ron, united in a brand new way, this time on hallowed ground.
Note (7/24): I did not realize the speech would be on Saturday, not Sunday. That is on me.
Kulpability Saves the Cubs
After a frustrating loss last night, one you hope Patrick Wisdom doesn’t literally forget (because he got beaned with a baseball) but one you hope he can figuratively forget (after mishap after mishap revolved around him), the Cubs bounced back and evened the series this afternoon, getting some big help from Ron Kulpa in the eighth inning when he kept Alec Burleson at the plate even after Mark Leiter delivered ball four and ball five.
It was not a banner day for Kulpa, and it wasn’t really a banner day for the Cubs, but it was a victory, and I’m sure the Pat Hughes honor awaiting us all on Sunday has me sentimental, but I do think it’s important to remember amongst the cynical trade deadline talk how fun it is when the Cubs win games at Wrigley Field, regardless of what that win does for the franchise. Yes, of course, it is much more fun to win meaningful games than ones which make little difference upon the team’s efforts to win a championship, but it’s always special to hear “Go Cubs Go.” The Cubs fans among us, myself included, are lucky for that.
Ayo Dosunmu’s Back
Just days after reports emerged that he was unlikely to return to the Bulls, Ayo Dosunmu signed a three-year deal to stay in Chicago. I don’t know if this helps or hurts the Bulls, really, but that’s kind of the point with the Bulls: Little helps them, little hurts them. They simply remain, a neutral island amidst the NBA currents of success and failure. I expect us to look up in eight years and realize they’ve been exactly .500 from 2015 onwards.
I do like Dosunmu. Nothing against him as a player. But that too is part of the problem with these Bulls. They are so darn static. Nothing ever shakes up.
I Hope Brian Harman Doesn’t Win
I have nothing at all against Brian Harman. I wish Brian Harman the absolute best on the golf course and in life. But in an effort to have fun with the majors, I’ve spent the last few betting on whoever the top-ranked American golfer is of whom I haven’t heard before. This major? Brian Harman is my guy.
This should make me want Brian Harman to win. Here’s the catch, though:
I didn’t really think this through, and I’ve been betting on whoever my guy is to simply make the cut, then pivoting and betting from there on him to win. This means if a guy has a great first two rounds like Harman just did, or like Wyndham Clark did at the U.S. Open, his odds to win are much shorter than they originally were by the time I get to them.
Not wanting to be overconfident before the eyes of fate, I didn’t alter this strategy even after it left me feeling I hadn’t gotten as much from Clark’s win as I deserved (not that I deserved anything, this is a really dumb “strategy,” but…you know). Now Harman’s up five strokes or however many with two days to go. Still not the odds on favorite, but a pretty hearty favorite.
Whoops.
Hopefully this motivates us to finally build out our golf model and all the other models we want to get up there. As you can see, the Women’s World Cup one did not reach the finish line in time.
The Weekend (Baseball) Slate
Last Friday, exiting the All-Star Break, we labeled six MLB teams as World Series contenders and seventeen MLB teams as factors. Our cutoffs were that contenders needed better than a 1-in-20 FanGraphs chance of winning the title and factors needed to be not wholly out of the race.
Over the week that’s followed, the contenders haven’t changed. The Rangers have had a good week, the Rays have had a bad week, the Rays have even been passed in the standings by the Orioles, but the six teams likeliest to win the World Series are still Atlanta, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, Texas, Toronto, and Houston. The factors also haven’t changed. The Cubs, Cardinals, Mets, Padres, Angels, and Mariners are all still very much on the outside looking in, but none have earned their way to being crossed off the list just yet. It’s still six and seventeen, even if that seventeen number will probably drop all the way to twelve by the time we reach August.
I’m not sure that we’ll cross anyone off the list on Monday, either, following this weekend’s games, but here are the weekend sets and here’s what they mean:
Baltimore @ Tampa Bay
It’s hard to see the Orioles establishing themselves as a veritable contender, and it’s hard to see the Rays falling far enough in one weekend to lose that status themselves. The Rays are just too good. Still, a big weekend from Baltimore could get them close to contender status. They’re one of the closest teams in pursuit of that label.
Los Angeles @ Texas
Both the Dodgers and the Rangers are in a division dogfight, with LA two games up on both the Giants and the Diamondbacks and Texas holding the Astros an arm’s length away at four. Again, no status likely to change hands here, but when two contenders from opposite leagues meet, the possibility of it turning into a World Series preview is a large one.
Toronto @ Seattle
Here’s one with some bigger implications. The Mariners are exactly .500 entering tonight. They’re five and a half games out in the Wild Card standings and nine and a half back in the West. They’re in tenth place in the American League. If this weekend goes poorly, Seattle could be going the direction Pittsburgh recently went, culling our big board by one nautically named member.
On the other side, the Blue Jays aren’t entirely secure in their contender status. They’re still looking at only a 15% chance of winning the AL East, and while that means they can expect to be a formidable foe in the Wild Card Series, it still means they’re probably going to have to play in the Wild Card Series. It also means that they’re among the teams who must hold off the Red Sox, Yankees, and anyone else who joins that party. The AL is deep outside of the Central.
Atlanta @ Milwaukee
The Brewers aren’t going to be a contender for a while, if ever, and Atlanta is at no risk of falling out of favoritehood anytime in the next month, leading the Dodgers by seven games and the Rays—who play a much more difficult remaining schedule—by four and a half. The Brewers are, though, looking to become the second team to put a division away. They’re trying to bury the Reds. As a bonus? They can knock both the Cardinals and Cubs out of the picture with a strong weekend here.
St. Louis @ Chicago (NL)
Since we mentioned them: We talk about the Cubs a lot in here already, but they and the Cardinals are rather similar. Each has the capability to win the Central, but neither is all that likely to do it, and each needs to win this four-game series to stand any realistic chance of keeping hope alive. Even then, it might not work. Whatever the case, they’ve split the first two, so somebody needs to win both tomorrow and Sunday or they’re both probably toast.
Arizona @ Cincinnati
The Diamondbacks are not only chasing the Dodgers but are grappling with the Giants, Phillies, Marlins, and even these Reds for the National League’s three Wild Card spots. The Reds have no business being here on paper, but they’re here, currently just one game out of the playoffs on the Wild Card side and merely two and a half back in the division. A really bad weekend—think a sweep while the Brewers and Phillies and Giants all win their respective series—could wipe the Reds off our board, but at six games above .500 and featuring baseball’s most exciting player at the moment, Elly De La Cruz, they’re probably not going to exit the public consciousness anytime soon.
San Francisco @ Washington
The Giants, like the Orioles, are close to being a contender. They’re six times less likely than Atlanta to win the World Series, but we have to include someone in that classification, and they’re close to getting to the level of the Astros and the Blue Jays. Playing the Nationals doesn’t offer many opportunities to improve their probabilities, since they’re expected to win two games, but it does give them a chance to make up ground on the Dodgers, which is the real-world goal.
Philadelphia @ Cleveland
Here’s an interesting one: The Phillies have an implied 5.9% World Series probability on FanGraphs *if they make the playoffs*, which basically means so long as they can finish above the playoff cut line, they’re a team to watch in October. Go on a little surge, and they’re a main character.
The Guardians, meanwhile, are only about 1-in-4 likely to make the playoffs, but they’re chasing a team that’s only two games over .500 and hasn’t looked convincing all year. There’s always mojo in Cleveland, so much so that it’s fair to consider them a Rays-like team who may have uncovered advantages that FanGraphs’s model doesn’t see.
Both sleepers at the moment, but possibly not for long.
Houston @ Oakland
White knuckle territory for the Astros, who have a nice opportunity here but could sweep and see the Rangers get swept and still not catch up in the American League West. Any loss to the A’s and they’re likely to be kicking themselves. Lose the series and they might not be a contender anymore, especially if the Red Sox or the Yankees surge.
New York (NL) @ Boston
Speaking of those Red Sox: They’re trying to keep themselves far away from the ash heap while pushing the Mets deeper into the dust. It’s probably not reasonable for the Mets to give up just yet—they aren’t chasing the best teams in the world, and I still wouldn’t mind having Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer in October—but the report is that they’re ready to give up, so who are we to tell them no? Again, the Red Sox would love to be the team who knocks them off the factors list.
Kansas City @ New York (AL)
The Yankees could get back in the picture in a hurry by beating up the Royals, but the fact they’re under 30% playoff-likely on FanGraphs underscores how far they’ve fallen. They’re closer to the Tigers than they are to the Rays or Orioles or Rangers. They’re only a game ahead of the Angels. A disastrous weekend could provoke selling, but it’s very unlikely as well. Most likely, we find them still in no-man’s land on Monday.
Colorado @ Miami
The Marlins are percentage points behind the Phillies at the moment and only a game and a half back of both the Giants and the Diamonbacks. It’s a good time to play the Rockies if you’re a 50/50 playoff team.
Chicago (AL) @ Minnesota
The Twins would, like the Brewers, really like to put their division away. The White Sox are feisty at times, but this is a good opportunity to get on that path. As we said above: They’re only two games above .500.
San Diego @ Detroit
The Padres are in a similar place to the Mets but don’t seem to be quitting in the trade deadline discourse. It’s possible both positions are just bluster and hypotheticals and our own reads on isolated quotes by executives. But. It’s also possible the Padres think they can catch three of the six teams realistically within reach—the Brewers–Diamondbacks–Giants–Phillies–Marlins–Reds bloc. The Tigers, like the White Sox, aren’t an easy out, but they’re easier than most.
Pittsburgh @ Anaheim
And, finally, Shohei Ohtani tries to keep himself in Anaheim. Five games is a lot of ground to make up, especially on teams as good as the Astros and Blue Jays, but if the Angels can wrestle their way past the Red Sox and Yankees, there’s a case to be made to try to make a push. Being close to the playoffs in games back is important, but it’s also important to not have to pass too many teams. At some point, that becomes logistically challenging, because the teams you’re trying to pass are right next to each other.
