A thing about sports is that they are often fun until they are not. And sometime around the end of the UCLA game last night, after Saint Peter’s had emboldened our betting portfolio earlier (while giving us much pure joy on the humanity side as well), Caleb Love stuck a knife into our morale, and Miami twisted it.
The Bets
We’ll start with the thing the least of you care about, because it’s the most actively festering as we sit down here. Regular readers know we’re trying to get the bets back to even. With a UCLA win last night after Purdue was eliminated, we would have been in a great spot to make that happen. Now…I’m not sure. Our average result, with no more daily bets, is to finish the NCAA Tournament profitable all-time again, but it’s unclear if our margin is high enough that we could hedge into a profitability lock, with the Washington State NIT future currently either a golden ticket or a gaping hole. We’ll know a lot more after tomorrow, not only because of the Elite Eight games but because we’ll probably place some longshots on NASCAR and Formula 1, as we normally do on Sundays. In the meantime, we’ve accidentally set up an emotional hedge with Duke vs. Arkansas.
The Games – Tonight
The games should be close! That’s the read, anyway. Would imagine it’s a pro-Duke crowd in San Francisco, a pro-Houston crowd in San Antonio. Houston’s a mid-major, but they’re a massive school on their way into high-major status (that pickup sure looks great for the Big 12 right now, by the way), and Houston and San Antonio are quite close to one another. Comparable to getting to a game in Chicago from the far suburbs for a lot of Houstonians.
On the court, the matchups are intriguing. Houston vs. Villanova is such a stylistic clash—a classic physicality vs. finesse kind of night. Villanova does not fare particularly well when it comes to defensive rebounding, and they have some general susceptibility inside, but they should be more ready for Houston’s defensive pressure than most, even if they’ve got the ACC phenomenon going on of having not seen many teams comparable to Houston in their ability to generate takeaways. The simplest thought is that if Villanova gets enough open looks, they’ll win, but that’s probably overly simplistic.
In the late game, it’s a lot of strength-on-strength. Duke’s a pretty good offensive rebounding team, Arkansas’s pretty strong on the defensive glass. Arkansas’s great at getting to the line, Duke’s excellent at limiting free throw opportunities. The Mark Williams vs. Jaylin Williams matchup should get a lot of attention after what the latter did to Gonzaga’s bigs on Thursday night, but this is more likely to be decided by wings and guards. JD Notae has a high usage rate, but his efficiency isn’t always there – he hasn’t had a KenPom offensive rating above 100 in a game since February. Paolo Banchero, for Duke, has come on strong over the last few weeks, following up his dud of a performance against Syracuse in Duke’s ACC Tournament opener with 18 points on ten shots against Miami, 20 points on eleven shots against Virginia Tech, 17 points on 14 shots against Fullerton, 19 points on 14 shots against Michigan State, and 22 points on twelve shots against Texas Tech. Free throws were a part of that, but he never attempted more than seven in a game over that stretch. It’s mostly just been strong efficiency, most notably beyond the arc on Thursday.
Duke and Houston are justifiably the favorites. Arkansas and Villanova are justifiably expected to keep each game between two possessions.
The Games – Last Night
Alright, let’s talk about UCLA. Get it over with.
We liked the Bruins a lot against UNC. UNC’s consistency was still suspect, Jaime Jaquez’s ankle seemed like it wouldn’t be a big issue, we believed Mick Cronin’s ability to adjust could be a difference-maker.
We were wrong.
UCLA did control the game for basically the first 38 minutes, carrying a three-point lead into the late moments. UNC closed on a 12-2 run, though, as Caleb Love, who’d been keeping the Tar Heels in it all second half, broke through. What a moment for him, what a performance by UNC, what a turnaround for a team that lost to Pitt at home within recent memory. Now, they’re the most likely Final Four team, and the best team between them and the national championship is one they walloped in Durham not too long ago. So much exhilarating momentum in that game. Such a fun demonstration of college basketball. Credit to Love, who made all that the case.
Kansas let Providence back in it, but the Friars could never get over the hump. They caused all sorts of problems for KU offensively—the Jayhawks couldn’t manage a point per possession—but in the end, Kansas scored enough and did plenty on the defensive end. After being in the picture all year, Kansas is one win and one favorable result elsewhere away from being the title favorite.
Saint Peter’s…what can you say? They weren’t content, they never blinked, Purdue went ahead over and over again and the Peacocks just hung around. The job the Saint Peter’s bigs did defensively, tormenting Zach Edey and hanging with Trevion Williams, was remarkable. Absolutely remarkable. Stunning individual defensive performances which are hard to quantify except to say that Edey had as many turnovers as he had made field goals and Williams, a 56% two-point shooter on the season, was held at 47%. Not a terrible night for Williams—not even a bad night—but he was not allowed to dominate, and with Edey struggling, Purdue needed Williams to dominate.
Outside the paint, Jaden Ivey was guarded well all night long, and maybe there was some validity to the thought that the Big Ten’s poor defense this year left Purdue unprepared for even little Saint Peter’s. On Purdue’s own defensive end, the performance was awful, and it’s telling about Purdue’s offense that Matt Painter left widely-acknowledged defensive liability Sasha Stefanovic in the game because he (one would assume) felt the Boilermakers needed points from the outside. Stefanovic had a great offensive showing, but Purdue shouldn’t have needed him to do all that.
Iowa State
Finally, Iowa State.
I underestimated how aggressive Miami would be defensively. I’d seen the turnover numbers, but they didn’t come across as outrageous, and it seemed like Jim Larrañaga’s staff dialed it up a notch, knowing Iowa State would struggle with reciprocal pressure, which was one hundred percent the case. ISU successfully dragged Miami downwards for a while, but Miami got too much out of Jordan Miller, Kameron McGusty made big shots, and at some point (around that UCLA ending), it became clear the die was cast. Gabe Kalscheur hit some big shots, but he was forced into trying to do too much and ended with woeful efficiency numbers. T.J. Otzelberger clearly doesn’t trust George Conditt, who had some good things going but failed to grab a single defensive rebound in his seventeen minutes of run. Izaiah Brockington had another rough night, and while there’s a narrative there that carrying the offense for so long left him too fatigued late in the year, I wonder if a bigger problem was that he didn’t have enough tricks up his sleeve, and teams became able to gameplan around him. The Cyclones definitely didn’t have their best night defensively, but it was the vulnerability on offense that really sunk them, and it was odd late, needing threes to have any shot of getting back in it, that Tre Jackson was still on the bench.
It’s a difficult thing, trying to forecast this Cyclone offseason. Otzelberger has three committed incoming recruits, which I believe leaves Iowa State one player over the scholarship allotment (the ten players who played this year each have one, plus Tre King, the Eastern Kentucky transfer forced to sit out this year). Based on Otzelberger’s evident preference for Robert Jones over Conditt, one would think Conditt will probably grad transfer, which will be sad, because Conditt’s been a great figure to have within the program, but also exciting, because Conditt could probably tear shit up in a mid-major league. Izaiah Brockington’s a question mark, turning 23 this summer. I’d be really surprised if Tyrese Hunter went pro, but it’s not impossible. Jackson clearly fell out of favor with Otzelberger and his staff, so he’s another big transfer possibility and another we’ll wish the best when he goes. Tristan Enaruna wouldn’t be a surprise to transfer, and neither would Jaden Walker, though the fact Walker’s stuck it out so far would indicate some potential to stay, and point guards like Hunter often get switched off the ball more in their second year in college, for various reasons. Kalscheur and Aljaž Kunc both have eligibility remaining, but each was honored on senior night, leaving their status undetermined.
I don’t want to rip on Otzelberger for the Conditt and Jackson decisions so much as I want to say why they surprise me. Jackson graded out on EvanMiya as a better player than Kalscheur over the year, and Conditt was leaps and bounds ahead of Jones in every form of measurement out there, including number of grimaces elicited from me, watching on the couch. Otzelberger clearly did a ridiculously good job, and he did seem to go all-in on defense (it never seemed like much of an effort was made to rethink the offense—very much a season where ISU focused on its strength), which worked. They made the NCAA Tournament in a season when making the NIT would have been a big step forward. They made the Sweet Sixteen. They beat Iowa. But the offense was atrocious, and Conditt and Jackson were surprisingly left off the floor a lot.
The three recruits coming in are all three-star guys, two guards and a 6’6” wing. Otzelberger is clearly comfortable navigating the transfer portal as well. So. If we assume Conditt and Jackson leave, that leaves us with one more open spot, something that could either remain open or be filled by a transfer. If all of Enaruna, Brockington, Kalscheur, Walker, and Kunc move on, that’s six open spots, where we’d assume at least four or five would be filled by transfer. So we’re looking at between zero and five transfers, and if I had to guess, the following starting lineup next year:
PG: Hunter
SG: Kalscheur
SF: (Transfer)
PF: Kunc
C: King
With four or five of these seven guys coming off the bench (and two or three full-on riding pine, probably some combination of the freshmen):
C: Jones
SG: Caleb Grill
(Transfer, likely a forward or wing)
(Transfer, likely a forward or wing)
PG: Tamin Lipsey
SG: Eli King
SF: Demarion Watson
I wouldn’t mind seeing Grill start, but Kalscheur’s defense is important, meaning what we’re probably most looking for is a transfer with a little length who can shoot to fill that gap, since offense is going to be desperately in need even with Hunter hopefully taking a step forward in scoring efficiency. Noah Freidel and David Jenkins are interesting names there, but neither’s probably as large as ISU would like. Noah Carter’s an interesting name, and he’d change this vision of ISU dimensionally, doing so much of his work as a big man this year despite measuring only 6’6”. Antonio Reeves, a 6’6” guard who’s been playing at Illinois State, could be a great fit. He has bad defensive numbers, but Iowa State has enough defense. Iowa State needs more balance. Otzelberger might disagree, but that’s my read on it, and I’d imagine offense is a major, major focus, especially since defense is more teachable, and Otzelberger’s staff is evidently excellent at teaching it. This is all speculation on my part, for whatever it’s worth, but I’m trying to get and give an idea of what the transfer portal search might look like. I wouldn’t mind at all seeing the Cyclones get better down low, too (Jones and King are an uninspiring duo overall), which brings Carter back into the picture. What we probably don’t want is another Brockington, enabling ISU to revert to isolation offense rather than more of a Hunter-centric drive-and-kick-and-slash approach. He was great this year, and great for this team, and next year the offense just really needs to be better if this team’s going to take a step forward and be up in the meat of the Big 12, contending for an NCAA Tournament 4 or 5-seed, which should be the objective.
There’ll be plenty more to report and speculate on as the offseason goes along, but this is how it begins. With frustration about last night, with elation over the season that was, and with a lot of curiosity over how big the second step for this program can be. The bubble is no longer a goal. The bubble would be a bad outcome.
