Let’s address the thing that’s been destroying my psyche:
Our Worst Beat
As regular readers know, we’ve been trying our hand betting on NASCAR. No wins yet, but it’s a bit of a numbers game, and we had multiple drivers in contention at the end of each of the season’s first two races.
Yesterday, we again had multiple drivers in contention at the end. Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch, who we’d bet at 20-to-1 each (we bet on five drivers in total, making the payout if one of Truex/KyBusch won equivalent to a 5-to-1 payout in real terms), were racing each other for the win with no one else in sight. All they had to do, or so I thought, was not wreck each other, and to their credit, they didn’t wreck each other.
Erik Jones wrecked himself.
Further back in the field, Jones spun out, and when Jones spun out, the caution flag was waved. Three laps shy of the checkered, or two laps shy of the white flag, after which cautions end the race. How long is a lap? Well, yesterday, each lap was about thirty seconds for the leader. With a minute left, the unthinkable happened, and as you can probably guess, Truex and Kyle Busch both lost on the restart.
The result of this is, in the immediate sense, that our average ROI on the bets we publish is, for the first time in more than three years, negative by more than five tenths of a percentage point and not projected to become positive when pending futures finish, because our pending futures have a negative eROI. We are in negative territory, and I am bummed.
We’ll keep publishing the bets—had we gone negative a couple years ago, we probably would’ve stopped, but we do think we’re capable of profit, and we now have the pageview incentive. This is the problem with gambling thinking, though, right? You were profitable once, so you can get there again? So, at some point we may have to stop, or we may have to stop investing our own actual money alongside the bets. That’s not very fun. This is all not very fun. I wish Erik Jones had not crashed yesterday.
Bracketology Notes
In another topic that makes me anxious, here are the immediate things I want to look into with our bracketology model after today’s releases from it (NIT, NCAAT):
- Our model’s low on Gonzaga. This isn’t extremely noticeable, since it still has the Zags as a 1-seed, but it’s unclear if this is because our model’s misreading the Zags, the market’s misreading the Zags, or we’re in a time-lag where other teams will pass the Zags this week as they play tougher foes than…well, honestly, San Francisco and Saint Mary’s are a pretty tough pair for a conference tournament. The thing I think is happening here is that we need to adjust our “exceptions” variables to have less of an impact towards the top of the curve. More to come on this.
- Our model’s…high on VCU? This is one I don’t really get, which makes me think the market is low on the Rams. The case where this could bite our model seems to be the scenario where VCU loses to Richmond. Our model would probably keep the Rams in the field were that to happen, and it seems other bracketologies would boot them out. I’ll take a closer look, but I currently lean towards trusting our model.
- Our model’s still low on Rutgers relative to the field. I still don’t know what to make of the Scarlet Knights. My opinion is that emotions are getting in the way and evaluations of Rutgers are getting subjective, but the issue with this is that subjectivity could happen in the committee as well. A tough scenario here for us is if Rutgers loses their first Big Ten Tournament game, or if they end up beating Nebraska, either of which would be a shrug on a résumé, not moving the needle much. They and Indiana are very, very close to one another in our model. Hopefully enough happens this week that they naturally separate and we don’t have to worry about a weird consideration of recent head-to-head.
- Speaking of head-to-head recency, Missouri State won the season series with Drake but lost the finale in the MVC semifinals. Will it matter? I don’t know. Our model has the Bears one spot ahead of the Bulldogs, though each résumé can wiggle. In particular, I’d expect the ratings score to change for each as teams around them move. This could end up not mattering at all, but right now they straddle the NIT cut line. How wonderful.
Iowa State’s Near Miss
The Cyclones gave Baylor a run on Saturday after a terrible start, and it was good to see them do that, just to be reminded of what they can do. They’re clearly a capable team, even if they can look horrifically bad at times. Some of this is viewer experience, of course: Earlier today, I described watching defense-first teams like them (plus Tennessee, Loyola, and Texas Tech) as akin to watching a pencil get sharpened with a hammer. But some of it is that it’s bad to have a glaring weakness, and Iowa State has a glaring weakness—its entire offense.
Texas Tech’s a pretty good draw for ISU in the Big 12 quarterfinals. It’s pretty much only an upside game, and if it looks ugly, it should get written off by any committee members prone to such subjectivity on the grounds that they were playing Texas Tech, who’s allowed by the narrative to play uglier than other teams because they’ve had significant success doing it.
I probably could’ve said this last Monday, but the Cyclones are an NCAA Tournament lock. They aren’t missing this thing. How about that?
Tonight’s Action
Basketball’s already underway, with Towson and Delaware midway through the first half in the CAA semifinals. There are nine other games tonight before the storm really starts tomorrow, as the ACC goes daytime. Most notably, Gonzaga plays San Francisco, but beyond that, two NCAA Tournament automatic bids will be decided, and we’ll get answers on somewhere between one and four NIT automatic bids. Chattanooga/Furman is a great mid-major game—the winner of that will probably occupy a 12-seed or a 13-seed, and will be expected to be competitive in their NCAA Tournament opener. That’s at 7:00 PM EST on ESPN, Gonzaga/San Fran’s at 9:00 PM EST, also on ESPN, and Saint Mary’s plays Santa Clara at 11:30 PM EST, with that one on ESPN2. Santa Clara’s looking for an NIT bid and a shot at shocking the world. Saint Mary’s is trying to make the 5-line their floor and turn the WCC Championship into their rubber match with Gonzaga. Good stuff all around.
Big 12 Football Atmospheres—Thoughts?
Was thinking about Big 12 football destinations this weekend. I’ve been to games at three of the ten schools (Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas). I’ve not been to the seven others. My impression is that the experiences rank as follows, but if you have a reaction, please let me know. I’m curious on this.
1. West Virginia
Maybe this is rude to West Virginia, but my perception is that a gameday in Morgantown is a spectacle in a way that isn’t really the case elsewhere. Couple that with a good in-game experience, and it’s somewhere I’d like to go once, even if it’s a rare place where I have some fear about being a fan of the visitors.
2. Texas
Texas might be unfair to not rank first, but it’s just so far short of its potential. Tailgating in Austin stinks, and the bars are too far away from the stadium for the experience to be seamless. Were those changed, this would be one of the best gamedays in the country. Instead, it’s merely good.
3. Oklahoma
I’m curious about Oklahoma, but those I’ve spoken to who’ve gone to games there have said great things about it. Having not spent time in the college-town parts of Norman (weird as that is to say), I can’t speak to much about the Sooners. I’d think it would be storied, though.
4. Iowa State
Homer pick? Yes. But then I think of how much the camera was shaking towards the end of that Oklahoma State game last fall, and I think of how favorably Ames measures up with towns like Stillwater and Manhattan, and it seems like an overcorrection on the bias front to rank this any lower.
5. Kansas State
I’m fond of Aggieville, Manhattan’s a quaint little town, and the smallness of the stadium combined with the history of Bill Snyder, in particular, makes it a great place to see a game and spend a weekend. Would be fun for these guys to get really, really good again.
6. Texas Tech
Back to the perceived spectacle thing we had with West Virginia on this one. High ceiling, low floor, maybe? That game when they beat Texas ten or fifteen years ago was just so out of control, and this is another one I’ve heard great things about.
7. Oklahoma State
I have the poorest read on the Stillwater experience of any of these, despite having been to Stillwater and having never been to Lubbock or Morgantown. I’ve just never heard folks say much about games in Stillwater. Someone, please enlighten me.
8. Baylor
Baylor has a deserved bad reputation as an institution, but everything I’ve heard about their fans from friends who’ve gone to games down in Waco has been complimentary. The nicest fans, I’m told. Possibly in the whole Big 12.
9. TCU
No hate to TCU, but my perception has been that it’s an underwhelming gameday. Maybe that’s because it’s been a while since the Horned Frogs’ heyday. Better in the Mountain West years? People are asking.
10. Kansas
Lawrence is awesome, obviously, but they need to have a few more fans in the building to get under any consideration here.
***
They’re tipping off the 6:00 games. See you out there.
