We’ve got fresh bracketology (NCAAT, NIT), so let’s start with that.
What the Hell Is Wrong with Baylor?
I mean, it’s bracket-related.
Baylor is no longer our top projected overall seed. That actually happened last week, I believe. But they’re also no longer a projected one-seed at all in our model, and that’s new. The Bears went to Lawrence on Saturday and Kansas ran them off the floor, finishing with a 24-point win that may have been even less close than it sounds.
It’s a dominant notch in Kansas’s belt, cementing them as a team that can do it. For Baylor, it wouldn’t be such a head-scratcher without the other recent stumbles. They lost those two at home, they got it back together, and now three straight no-shows. Was LJ Cryer this essential to this team?
There’s a possibility Baylor will figure it out. There’s a likelihood, even, to an extent. I’d still pick them to win the Big 12 Tournament, especially if Texas takes down Kansas tonight in Austin, which is a strong possibility. But for right now, we’ll drop Baylor down to a National Championship Possibility, the lower of our two top categories.
Categorizing
What does that mean? One way to say it is that Baylor has the guys, but isn’t playing the part, or can’t be trusted right now to play the part. This is true of Purdue, as well, and Kansas, and Duke. Illinois is in this category too, though their issue is more that we don’t fully know what they’ll look like with Curbelo at top speed. Auburn is also in this category, alternating results like the home blowout of Alabama with the near-nightmare in Athens on Saturday. We’ve included Villanova and Texas Tech in this lately, but I’m not sure either should really be there. Texas Tech probably benefits in the public eye from comparison to its own expectations. It’s a really, really good team. But it’s almost definitely closer to its ceiling than Baylor is. Ditto Illinois. Ditto Duke. Ditto Purdue. And as for Villanova—Saturday was impressive, but there’s nothing this team does quite well enough to believe they can win those right six games in a row.
Overall, then, we’re at the following:
National Championship Contenders: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky
You could leave this category to only Gonzaga, but we kind of did that last year, and we’re still smarting from it. Gonzaga has better than a fifty percent chance of finishing WCC play undefeated, and while the WCC has some terrible teams, the Zags also play nearly half their conference games against NCAA Tournament-quality competition. If they can sweep Saint Mary’s, San Francisco, and BYU on the road (having completed the third leg in that list on Saturday, and by 33 points), they deserve a lot of praise. They also have now gone over two months without a loss, playing more tournament teams over that stretch than Duke has.
Again, though, we don’t want to leave this to just Gonzaga, and Arizona has put any doubts aside with its run through the Los Angeles teams this past week. They’ve got a dangerous one in Pullman on Thursday, but they’re phenomenal, and a blast to watch. By KenPom, they’re about as good as the 2017 UNC team that won it all.
And finally, Kentucky, who took down Alabama in Tuscaloosa without too much trouble on Saturday. Kentucky is blossoming, and result on the Plains and all, they’re the best team in the SEC.
National Championship Possibilities: Houston, Purdue, Baylor, Auburn, Kansas, Duke, Illinois
We touched on six of these above, and before we go on, yes, Illinois is in danger of removal from this list, but no, I don’t think Duke is just yet. Duke’s probably our bottom line no matter where they land unless things get really bad over there. They just have so much talent, and one element of the ACC being so, so, so, so, so mediocre is that we might be underestimating them because they’re going untested. Are they losing to Virginia at home as I type this? Yes. But they do still have the dudes.
As I was saying, though, we touched on six of these above, and we didn’t talk about Houston.
I don’t know what to make of the Cougars. They’ve got losses to Wisconsin and Alabama, and they actually haven’t beaten an NCAA Tournament team, unless you count Oregon, who we have projected to get bid thieved (though they could do the thieving—bubble talk can get confusing, fast). The AAC, like the ACC, is terrible, but Houston, unlike Duke, is rolling through it without a problem. Only two of Houston’s nine league games have been within single digits, and both of those were more than three weeks ago, now. For their latest trick, they went to Cincinnati yesterday and won by 22 against a team a whole lot better than Arizona State (for those of you who stayed up for that UCLA finish on Saturday night). Houston’s taking care of business, and that’s an accomplishment.
If all goes well for Houston, we won’t learn more about this team until the tournament’s second round. The same might be true for Duke. For Baylor, Purdue, Auburn, Kansas, and Illinois, the tests will keep coming. For Kansas, one’s about to tip off.
Not Great, Iowa State
Kansas will be playing Texas tonight, and Texas just pushed Iowa State into its worst game of the season on Saturday. If you’re one of our national readers, you don’t care too much about Iowa State. If you’re an Iowa State reader, you don’t need me to rehash what happened. You may want some evaluation, though, and my evaluation is…
Gabe Kalscheur does have solid defensive numbers.
But goodness, man.
It’s one of those cases where you don’t want to talk about it too much, because when a player suffers as significant a downturn as Kalscheur’s suffered since his freshman year at Minnesota, you’d imagine it’s weighing on him beyond belief, and you don’t want to be an asshole. Still, though, it bears mentioning, and Saturday’s five-turnover, 2-for-9-from-the-floor performance was a new low.
Anyway, Texas is strong on defense. Look out, Kansas.
