First off, the update on Damar Hamlin is, per the Bills, that he “remains in the ICU in critical condition with signs of improvement noted yesterday and overnight.” We continue, like so many others, to hope and to pray, for the man and for his family, most broadly defined.
The NFL has decided, in highly reasonable fashion, to not play the rest of the game this week, or to make it up this week. That leaves three options: Change the playoff format, change the playoff schedule, or leave the game unplayed.
This third option is the simplest, and the only real argument against it is that it leaves the Bengals and possibly the Bills and possibly the Ravens at a retroactive disadvantage. The Bengals were live favorites at the time the game stopped, potentially on their way to tying the Bills in the standings, leaving only one game as a touchdown favorite between themselves and the 2-seed. The Bills, had they won (which was very possible), would have been one game as a touchdown favorite away from taking the top seed in the AFC, which is accompanied by a bye. There is still something like a 60% chance one of the three of Kansas City, Buffalo, and Cincinnati loses this week, adding complications, which is likelier than not. But both Buffalo and Cincinnati have reasonable arguments that they are at a disadvantage because the game wasn’t completed, as does Baltimore, who would have a shot at winning the AFC North had the Bills beaten the Bengals.
Here’s the thing, though:
That doesn’t matter.
It doesn’t matter that the Bills and Bengals and Ravens are at newfound competitive disadvantages.
It doesn’t matter that the Bills won’t get a bye, and that the Bengals won’t get to host a 9-8 team rather than a 10-7 one, and that the Ravens will definitely play on the road (unless the NFL changes something).
It doesn’t matter that should the Bills or Bengals make the AFC Championship, they’ll play a Kansas City team collaterally better-rested because of the game’s suspension.
What matters is that on Monday night, everyone involved chose to do the right thing, and to call the game. I know it sounds hokey. I know it maybe sounds childish or naïve. But given the choice between doing the right thing and trying to gain seeding advantage, Zac Taylor chose to do the right thing. The right thing by his players, the right thing by his employer, the right thing by his colleagues. And everyone else did too. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think all of us reading this would have done the same. There’s a straw man going around that continuing the game was on the table, but it’s just that, a straw man. Nobody tried to continue the game. The “five minutes to warm up” instruction is commonplace after lengthy injury delays. Everyone involved—the refs, the coaches, the players, the broadcasters, the NFL—chose to not play, and while it’s fair to assume there were shreds of inertia or shreds of doubt or conflicting voices, we have absolutely no indication who those voices were, or whether they said a thing. If it had been you, I think you would have done what Zac Taylor did. Seeding be damned.
Maybe Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes get another Super Bowl because of what happened on Monday night. That’s ok. That’s ok, it seems, by everyone involved. Super Bowls are not as important as community. Credit to the NFL—defined broadly, not just the league offices—for demonstrating that. We can figure out brackets. We can figure out how to make things as fair as possible, knowing—being strongly reminded, in fact—that life is not fair. We can’t not do the right thing. That part isn’t optional. God bless humanity for that (and some might say He has).
Now.
Let’s figure out brackets.
The NFC remains straightforward. In the East, the Eagles win the division with a win over the Giants or a Cowboys loss to the Commanders. Should they win, they’re the top seed.
Whichever of the Eagles and Cowboys doesn’t win the NFC East will be the 5-seed in the NFC, traveling to play the Bucs in the first round. The Giants are locked into the 6-seed, so they’ll play the 3-seed.
Who will the 3-seed be?
If the 49ers and Vikings finish tied head-to-head, the 49ers hold the advantage because they’ll have the better conference record. If the 49ers, Vikings, and Eagles are in a three-way tie, I believe the 49ers would get the nod because they have the best conference record, and that the Eagles would then edge the Vikings based on their head-to-head result, but I may be misinterpreting the NFL’s tiebreaker procedures (my impression is that the 49ers would be “eliminated” from the initial tie by having won it, reverting the situation to head-to-head between the Vikings and Eagles). If the 49ers, Vikings, and Cowboys are in a three-way tie, the 49ers would still get the nod and the Cowboys would edge the Vikings, also on conference record. So, the Vikings can only avoid the 3-seed if they win against the Bears and the 49ers lose to the Cardinals. In that scenario, they’re the 2-seed. Similarly, the 49ers can only grab the 1-seed if they win and the Eagles lose. I think this covers all scenarios regarding these guys.
For the final playoff spot, the Seahawks beat the Lions head to head, so if the Seahawks beat the Rams and the Lions beat the Packers, the Lions are in. The Packers, meanwhile, have the better conference record than the Seahawks, so if the Packers beat the Lions, the Packers are in. The Lions can only make it, then, by winning after seeing the Rams beat the Seahawks earlier in the day.
In the AFC, provided the Bills/Bengals game is ruled a no-contest or a tie, the situation is as follows:
With a win over the Raiders, Kansas City would clinch the 1-seed, unless the NFL were to say “only losses count” or something to that effect and rule KC’s 14-3 as equivalent to Buffalo’s 13-3 in scenarios where Buffalo wins. Kansas City has already clinched the West, and Buffalo has already clinched the East.
The Bengals’ situation is also tricky. One advantage the Bengals have gained, if you want to call it that, is that if the game isn’t made up and the NFL goes by win percentage or rules the game a tie, the Bengals will have clinched the North over the Ravens. If the NFL says “only wins count” or something that effect and rules Cincinnati’s 11-5 as equivalent to Baltimore’s 11-6 in scenarios where the Ravens beat the Bengals, then the Ravens would win the North on head-to-head. Otherwise, the Bengals have won the North, and can only grab the 2-seed by winning, seeing the Bills lose to the Patriots, and finishing with a better Strength of Victory than the Bills, as each would be 8-3 against common opponents if I’m counting the games correctly.
If the NFL does rule Cincinnati’s hypothetical 11-5 as equivalent to Baltimore’s hypothetical 11-6, it would presumably include the Chargers’ hypothetical 11-6 as likewise equivalent, and would force a tiebreaker for the 5-seed in scenarios where the Chargers won against the Broncos and the Ravens beat the Bengals. In that tiebreaker, the Chargers would have the better conference record at 8-4, but the Bengals would have one fewer conference game, finishing 7-4 and complicating things in the reverse direction. All these complications, combined with the gigantic unlikelihood of delaying the playoff a week, are why I’m guessing the NFL will either rule the Bills/Bengals game a straight no-contest or a tie, and will go by win percentage where relevant.
If the NFL does rule the game a no-contest or a tie, again, the Bengals are the 2-seed or 3-seed and the Ravens are the 5-seed or 6-seed, with the Chargers holding the advantage there if the pair remains tied.
For the AFC South title and accompanying 4-seed, it’s a head-to-head game between the Titans and the Jaguars. If the Jaguars win, they win it outright. If the Titans win, they win it by having the better division record.
If the Jaguars do lose, they could drop into the 7-seed mix, but only if the Patriots lose to the Bills, the Dolphins lose to the Jets, and the Steelers lose to the Browns. If the four do end up tied at 8-9, they’ll also be tied with the Jets and Browns at 8-9, and the Jaguars will get the 7-seed by virtue of holding the best conference record (after the tiebreaker is reduced to Jaguars, Browns or Steelers [doesn’t matter which], and Patriots through the use of division tiebreakers).
If the Jaguars don’t lose, we could get a five-way tie between the Patriots, Dolphins, Steelers, Jets, and Browns. In this scenario, the tie would be reduced to the Patriots and either the Steelers or Browns (again, doesn’t matter which), and the Patriots would win by having won head to head.
We cannot get a four-way tie involving these five teams. Not for a playoff spot. We can get a three-way tie between the Patriots, Dolphins, and Steelers, though, and that tie will go to the Patriots, as will either head-to-head tie involving the Patriots and the Dolphins or Steelers (the Pats would have the better division record than the Dolphins, with whom they split, and they beat the Steelers head-to-head). If it’s the Dolphins and Steelers head-to-head, it goes to the Dolphins, who beat Pittsburgh in October.
So: New England is in with a win and a Jaguars loss. Jacksonville is in with a win OR losses by the Patriots, Dolphins, and Steelers. Pittsburgh is in with a win and losses by Miami and New England. Miami is in with a win and a New England loss.
I think that covers everything, as far as we know it right now. It will, as we’ve stated, be impacted by the NFL’s decision on Buffalo and Cincinnati’s unfinished game, but I think we know where that’s going. There is no time to play it.
Down Goes New Mexico
New Mexico is undefeated no more, unable to edge Fresno State in a game the Lobos briefly led by seven, but never found a great chance to put away. It was a matter of time—if you’re only favored by four at Fresno State, you’re probably not good enough to win out in pretty much any conference at this point in the season—but it does leave New Mexico with a 14-1 record and a NET nonconference strength of schedule that isn’t good (it’s 267th out of 363) but isn’t bad enough to provoke huge questions. That’s a good start if you’re a mid-major team trying to make the bubble. Unfortunately, it’s a tough fall from “last undefeated team” to “mid-major team trying to make the bubble.”
Kansas: Good
Kansas handled its first conference road game, not exactly with ease, but without encountering disaster. They beat Texas Tech in Lubbock. That’s a good thing.
I don’t know that Kansas is the best team in the country. In fact, I’m pretty certain they’re not. But among the best teams, they’re arguably the most consistent and well-rounded. Alongside UConn and UCLA (though as we’ve been mentioning, UConn has yet to meet much in the way of resistance). That, again, is a good thing.
Can Iowa State Steal One?
Sure, Iowa State can steal one tonight. But it’s unlikely they do. Oklahoma struggles to protect the ball but when they get shots off, they make them at a prodigious clip, and their defense is well-equipped to limit Cyclone second chances. Oklahoma’s the better team, Oklahoma’s the home team, we’re probably collectively underrating the impact of Aljaž Kunc’s absence in the wake of such a good game by ISU on Saturday.
Eric Hosmer to the Cubs
The Cubs signed Eric Hosmer to a deal reportedly worth less than one million dollars for a year, and we love that for the Cubs. At this point in his career, Hosmer’s unlikely to put up more than one WAR, but he adds a veteran presence and he’s a slightly-better-than-league-average bat. If he steals at-bats from a breakout Matt Mervis, that’s bad, but if he takes them from Patrick Wisdom, or from a struggling Mervis? That’s probably good. It’s nothing that changes this team’s projection in a meaningful way, but it’s a good signing.
**
Viewing schedule for the day, second screen rotation in italics:
College Basketball (sampler platter)
- 5:00 PM EST: College of Charleston @ North Carolina A&T (CBSSN)
- 7:00 PM EST: Iowa State @ Oklahoma (ESPN2)
- 8:30 PM EST: UConn @ Providence (FS1)
- 8:30 PM EST: Missouri @ Arkansas (SECN)
- 9:00 PM EST: TCU @ Baylor (ESPN2)
- 10:30 PM EST: Colorado State @ Nevada (FS1)
NBA (best game, plus the Bulls)
- 7:00 PM EST: Indianapolis @ Philadelphia (League Pass)
- 8:00 PM EST: Brooklyn @ Bulls (League Pass)
NHL (best game)
- 9:30 PM EST: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota (TNT)
Premier League (best game)
- 2:45 PM EST: West Ham @ Leeds (USA)
