The NFL’s playoff scenarios are finalized, and…yes, they’re a little weird. I don’t know if I wrote this on the site or on Twitter or on neither or both, but earlier in the week, when they were discussing these sorts of changes, I thought they were creative and relatively fair. I was wrong. They might be creative, but they’re not fair. I was unaware there was a rule already in place for what to do if a game was canceled. I don’t understand why they’re ignoring that rule. They should just be going by win percentage. Instead, the Ravens can effectively win the North by beating the Bengals, seeing the Chargers win, and winning a coin flip, even though they’d be just 11-6 and the Bengals would be 11-5. Also, if there could have been a tie for the top seed, had the Bills/Bengals game been completed, and two teams who could have been involved in that hypothetical tie meet in the AFC Championship, that game will be on a neutral field. This could likeliest apply to a Buffalo/Kansas City AFC Championship, but there are scenarios where the Bengals could be involved in it as well.
With that, here are the scenarios (apologies if I’ve left one out where a tie is involved—that admittedly did throw me) based on my understanding of the NFL Tiebreakers:
AFC North
The Bengals (11-4) and Ravens (10-6) play one another. Technically, the Bengals will have won the AFC North no matter what, and importantly (for eventual Division Round reseeding reasons), it seems the Bengals will be the 3-seed no matter what. But. If the Ravens win, the Chargers’ result against the Broncos will also matter, because the NFL will only use the coin toss if the Ravens and Bengals are matched up in the first round, and that will only happen if the Chargers beat the Broncos, keeping the Ravens at the 6-seed. So:
- The Bengals win the AFC North and keep the associated benefits with a win OR a tie OR a Chargers loss/tie OR a loss, a Chargers win, and a victory in the coin toss.
- The Ravens get to play at home in the Wild Card Round with a win, a Chargers win, and a victory in the coin toss.
AFC South
This one’s straightforward. The Titans are 7-9, the Jaguars are 8-8, the two play each other and if they end up tied, the Titans hold the tiebreaker. So:
- The Jaguars win the AFC South and claim the 4-seed with a win/tie.
- The Titans win the AFC South and claim the 4-seed with a win.
AFC 7-Seed
The Patriots (8-8), Dolphins (8-8), Steelers (8-8), and Jaguars (8-8) all have a chance at this. The Patriots play the Bills, the Dolphins play the Jets, the Steelers play the Browns, the Jaguars still play the Titans. Presently, the Patriots have beaten the Steelers head-to-head and have the better division record than the Dolphins, while the Dolphins beat the Steelers head-to-head and the Jaguars will have the best conference record of the four (plus the Browns and Jets) if all end up at 8-9. Lastly, the Jets and Browns have no route to win a tiebreaker, because of (most simply) the Browns’ conference record and the Patriots having swept the Jets. So, here’s who gets it:
- The Patriots make the playoffs and get the 7-seed with a win OR a loss, a Dolphins loss, a Steelers loss, and a Jaguars win.
- The Dolphins make the playoffs and get the 7-seed with a win and a Patriots loss.
- The Steelers make the playoffs and get the 7-seed with a win and losses by both the Patriots and Dolphins.
- The Jaguars make the playoffs and get the 7-seed with a loss and losses by the Patriots, Dolphins, and Steelers (they’re already in if they win).
- If there’s a tie somewhere (or in two places): The order of tiebreakers goes Patriots, Dolphins, Steelers, so take the first team on that list among those who remain tied.
AFC 5-Seed
The Chargers (10-6) hold the advantage here over the Ravens (10-6), based on conference record, and they will retain that advantage if the tie remains in place. The Chargers play the Broncos. The Ravens still play the Bengals. So:
- The Chargers get the 5-seed with a win OR a Ravens loss OR a tie and a Ravens tie.
- The Ravens get the 5-seed with a win/tie and a Chargers loss.
AFC 2-Seed
The Bills (12-3) and Bengals (11-4) could end up tied for this, and if they’re tied, it’ll go all the way down the tiebreaker list to Strength of Victory, since they’ll have the same conference record (8-3) and the same record in common games (7-3). The Bengals have the better strength of victory right now, and it will stay that way no matter what, because the teams the Bengals will have beaten whom the Bills won’t have beaten (Bucs, Falcons, Panthers, Saints – the entire NFC South) are guaranteed to have better records than those the Bills will have beaten whom the Bengals won’t (Lions, Bears, Packers, Rams). So, as the Bills still play the Patriots and the Bengals still play the Ravens:
- The Bengals get the 2-seed with a win and a Bills loss/tie OR a win/tie and a Bills loss.
- The Bills get at least the 2-seed with a win.
- The Bills get the 2-seed with a loss and a Bengals loss.
Importantly: If Kansas City loses to the Raiders, the scenario where the Bengals have won will lead to a neutral-site AFC Championship if it’s KC/CIN, and the scenario where the Bills have lost will lead to a neutral-site AFC Championship if it’s KC/BUF.
AFC 1-Seed
Kansas City (13-3) plays the Raiders, Buffalo (12-3) still plays the Patriots. In the event they end up “tied” at 13-3-1 and 13-3, Buffalo would have the head-to-head advantage and I believe also the better win percentage. So:
- Kansas City gets the 1-seed with a win OR a Bills loss.
- Buffalo gets the 1-seed with a win and a Kansas City loss/tie OR a tie and a Kansas City loss.
Importantly: If Kansas City and Buffalo both win or both tie, and the two then meet in the AFC Championship, that game will be played at a neutral site.
NFC East
Onto the NFC, where only the East remains undecided among the four divisions. Here, the Eagles (13-3) play the Giants and the Cowboys (12-4) play the Commanders. The Cowboys hold the hypothetical head-to-head tiebreaker, which would be division record. So:
- The Eagles win the NFC East with a win OR a tie OR a Cowboys loss/tie.
- The Cowboys win the NFC East with a win and an Eagles loss.
Whoever doesn’t win this division, between these two, gets the 5-seed.
NFC 1-Seed
At the top of the NFC East, the Eagles (13-3), Cowboys (12-4), 49ers (12-4), and Vikings (12-4) could all end up in an eventual tie. If it’s a 4-way tie, the Eagles will be eliminated in the division stage of tiebreaking and the 49ers would then take the conference based on conference record. If it’s a 3-way tie, the 49ers would still take the conference based on conference record if they’re involved, and if they’re not, the Cowboys would get it based on the same metric. If it’s a 2-way tie, the 49ers top the Eagles by conference record and the Eagles top the Vikings because they won head-to-head. So, with the Eagles playing the Giants, the Cowboys playing the Commanders, the 49ers playing the Cardinals, and the Vikings playing the Bears:
- The Eagles get the 1-seed with a win or a tie OR a loss and losses or ties by both the Cowboys and the 49ers.
- The 49ers get the 1-seed with a win and an Eagles loss.
- The Cowboys get the 1-seed with a win, an Eagles loss, and a 49ers loss or tie.
NFC 2-Seed
The 49ers, Cowboys, and Vikings are all still in play for the 2-seed, and the tiebreaker order is the same. So:
- If the 49ers don’t get the 1-seed, they get the 2-seed with a win OR a loss and a Vikings loss OR a tie and a Vikings tie.
- If the Cowboys don’t get the 1-seed but they win the NFC East, they get the 2-seed.
- The Vikings get the 2-seed with a win and a 49ers loss/tie OR a tie and a 49ers loss.
NFC 7-Seed
Finally, the Lions (8-8), Packers (8-8), and Seahawks (8-8) are duking it out for the last playoff spot, with the Lions and Packers playing one another and the Seahawks playing the Rams. The Packers hold the hypothetical tiebreaker over the Seahawks by conference record. The Seahawks hold the tiebreaker over the Lions by having won head-to-head. If the Lions and Packers tie, the Lions hold the tiebreaker by head-to-head result. If both games end in ties, the Commanders could get back into things by beating the Cowboys, and their presence would help the Lions by making it about conference record, where the Lions would win the three-way tiebreaker. So:
- The Packers make the playoffs with a win.
- The Seahawks make the playoffs with a win and a Packers loss or tie, OR with a tie and a Packers tie and a Commanders loss or tie.
- The Lions make the playoffs with a win and a Seahawks loss or tie OR with a tie and a Seahawks loss OR with a tie and a Seahawks tie and a Commanders win.
I think that covers everything. Please let me know if you notice any mistakes, so that I can then correct them. Thanks in advance.
The NFL Has No Small-Market Teams?
I don’t think this is true. I think the NFL has plenty of small-market teams and that’s why the South Divisions are so habitually bad. I do think it’s noteworthy, though, that the Packers keep getting these primetime spots. Last weekend, two Los Angeles teams were playing one another and upwards of 90% of households got the Packers and Vikings from CBS. This weekend, the Packers and Lions got flexed into Sunday Night Football. No other Big Four league has a team in a city as small as Green Bay, and even the small-market teams they do have don’t get the attention the Packers get. Ditto the Steelers.
Is Carlos Correa a Value Add?
The Mets and Carlos Correa are reportedly on the outs, and while it could still come together there, the market is reopening, which is a huge deal. Correa may be damaged goods, but you’d have to say the injury makes him a ton worse in the short term (which it doesn’t) for him to be a bad asset. At this point, it looks like he won’t be able to get a conventional long-term deal, like he wants. But he’s still going to get a ton of money, and someone’s going to get a good bat (and probably glove) on the left side of their infield.
Movelor and the FCS Championship
I am very sorry to not have this handy—we’ll have it Sunday, I think, in the bets—but Movelor’s on a different computer than the one I’m on right now, and that computer is in a different place than I’m at right now. I’m pretty sure the Movelor line’s around 4 in South Dakota State’s favor, though, so no major disagreement with the market right now. There’s a phenomenon with college football rating systems where they break down a little at the top, because the best teams in each division often win so dominantly that it’s hard to find their true level, but the bottom line is that it should be a great, great game. You couldn’t draw up a better game with this year’s FCS.
Jim Harbaugh, the NFL, and Matt Campbell
I’m not too worried about the NCAA sanctions with Jim Harbaugh. If my interest is Harbaugh staying at Michigan (and I do think it is, though as I’ll get to, we’re dealing with fringe possibilities), the NCAA investigation doesn’t worry me. Those take a long time, and they’re rarely that severe with their sanctions. Even a suspension probably wouldn’t hurt Jim Harbaugh.
Instead, I’m just worried Harbaugh will get poached. We haven’t gotten to the NFL hiring cycle yet. Harbaugh says he expects to stay at Michigan, but what else is he going to say?
If Harbaugh does leave, yes, Matt Campbell would probably be on Michigan’s radar. But it’s not certain he’d be their top target, and even if he was, it’s unclear whether that makes him more than 50% likely. If the probability of Harbaugh leaving is 1-in-4 and the probability of Campbell being his successor is 1-in-3, we’ve got a 1-in-12 chance of seeing Campbell at Michigan (I don’t think those are the exact probabilities, but it’s in those kinds of ranges). At that scale, I’m comparably worried about the NFL coming back to Campbell or something else unexpected going down.
Gonzaga Doesn’t Need to Win
Gonzaga escaped San Francisco last night, and it was not what they needed. A close win on the road against a team unlikely to make the NIT? You can have it, sure, and it’s better than a loss, but if Gonzaga wants to get back into the national picture with an ounce of seriousness, they need to be beating up on the WCC. Most importantly, they can’t keep letting teams score at will against them, which San Francisco was the latest to do last night. 43.5% from three-point land. A 39.4% offensive rebounding rate for the Dons. Gonzaga is so uninspiring defensively that they’ve now fallen behind Rutgers in KenPom. Rutgers is up, yeah, but they’re still Rutgers.
Iowa State’s Free Play
Iowa State’s got the thing this weekend in Fort Worth where they’re the metaphorical quarterback and the metaphorical defense is offsides but the metaphorical play is live. They get to take a shot. Lose, they’re 2-1 in the Big 12 heading into their second conference home game. Win, they’re at the top of the conference after one sixth of the season, and they’ve got a pretty good shot to be alone at that top, with Kansas facing a tossup game in Morgantown and Kansas State an underdog in Waco.
**
Weekend viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:
College Basketball (sampler platter, big national games bolded)
- Friday, 7:00 PM EST: Penn @ Cornell (ESPN+)
- Friday, 8:30 PM EST: Akron @ Ball State (CBSSN)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Creighton @ UConn (FS1)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Texas @ Oklahoma State (ESPNU)
- Saturday, 1:00 PM EST: Kentucky @ Alabama (ESPN)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EST: Iowa State @ TCU (ESPNU)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EST: Tennessee @ South Carolina (SECN)
- Saturday, 4:30 PM EST: Xavier @ Villanova (FS1)
- Saturday, 5:00 PM EST: Washington State @ Arizona (P12N)
- Saturday, 6:00 PM EST: Kansas State @ Baylor (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 6:00 PM EST: Kansas @ West Virginia (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 6:30 PM EST: Utah State @ Boise State (FS1)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 8:30 PM EST: Arkansas @ Auburn (SECN)
- Saturday, 9:30 PM EST: UNLV @ New Mexico (CBSSN)
- Saturday, 10:00 PM EST: Gonzaga @ Santa Clara (ROOT)
- Sunday, 12:00 PM EST: Iowa @ Rutgers (BTN)
- Sunday, 12:00 PM EST: Northwestern @ Indiana (FS1)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Ohio State @ Maryland (ESPN)
- Sunday, 3:00 PM EST: Houston @ Cincinnati (ESPN)
- Sunday, 6:00 PM EST: Purdue vs. Penn State (BTN)
FCS Championship
- Sunday, 2:00 PM EST: South Dakota State vs. North Dakota State (ABC)
NFL (playoff-impacting)
- Saturday, 4:30 PM EST: Kansas City @ Las Vegas (ABC)
- Saturday, 8:15 PM EST: Tennessee @ Jacksonville (ABC)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: New England @ Buffalo (CBS)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Minnesota @ Chicago (FOX)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Baltimore @ Cincinnati (CBS)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: NY Jets @ Miami (FOX)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (CBS)
- Sunday, 4:25 PM EST: LA Chargers @ Denver (CBS)
- Sunday, 4:25 PM EST: NY Giants @ Philadelphia (CBS)
- Sunday, 4:25 PM EST: Arizona @ San Francisco (FOX)
- Sunday, 4:25 PM EST: LA Rams @ Seattle (FOX)
- Sunday, 4:25 PM EST: Dallas @ Washington (FOX)
- Sunday, 8:20 PM EST: Detroit @ Packers (NBC)
NBA (best game each day, plus the Bulls)
- Friday, 7:00 PM EST: Bulls @ Philadelphia (League Pass)
- Friday, 7:30 PM EST: Brooklyn @ New Orleans (ESPN)
- Saturday, 8:00 PM EST: New Orleans @ Dallas (League Pass)
- Saturday, 8:00 PM EST: Utah @ Bulls (League Pass)
- Sunday, 6:00 PM EST: Utah @ Memphis (League Pass)
NHL (best game each day)
- Friday, 8:00 PM EST: Tampa Bay @ Winnipeg (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: Minnesota @ Buffalo (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 7:00 PM EST: St. Louis @ Minnesota (ESPN+)
FA Cup (best games in otherwise open time slots)
- Friday, 3:00 PM EST: Everton @ Manchester United (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 7:30 PM EST: Southampton @ Crystal Palace (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Burnley @ Bournemouth (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 7:30 AM EST: Barnsley @ Derby County (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 9:00 AM EST: Leeds @ Cardiff City (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 11:30 AM EST: Chelsea @ Manchester City (ESPN+)
