It’s June 22nd. We’re eleven weeks into Major League Baseball’s 26-week season. The Yankees and Mets have the best two records in baseball, and the Mets are second-best by more than a game. This is happening in surprisingly quiet fashion. Some of it may be timing: The NBA Draft hasn’t yet happened, the Stanley Cup won’t be lifted for another few nights, we’re still a few weeks away from baseball holding its highest market share of the year in day-to-day action, something it achieves in July, after which things only escalate, with the accelerant of the trade deadline kicking off the sporting year’s academic calendar. If the Yankees and Mets are still 1-2 in a month’s time, we will likely be hearing about it more.
The Yankees are, to use a phrase, a wagon. They’re 50-18 so far, on pace for 119 wins, and while FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds project them for a 103-win finish, those odds don’t account for the likely trade deadline buying Brian Cashman and his team will do. The Yankees are a force, far and away baseball’s best team so far, with the best offense in the league (by wRC+), the best pitching staff in the league (by FIP), and the fourth-best defense in the league (by FanGraphs’s defensive runs above/below average). The Yankees have won seven or more games in a row just as many times as they’ve lost two or more games in a row: thrice. Of the Yankees’ seven qualified hitters, six are above average, and four are more than thirty percent better than average. Of the Yankees’ four qualified starters, all are at least ten percent better than average, using FIP. Of the Yankee’ four qualified relievers, only one is below average by FIP, and two of the other three are more than fifty percent better than average. Clay Holmes allowed his second run of the year Monday night. Clay Holmes has appeared in 31 games.
A bit further out on Long Island, though, the Mets are arguably turning in the more impressive performance. Despite injuries to Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, who’ve together won four of the last six National League Cy Young awards, their rotation is seventh-best in the Majors by fWAR. They might not play in the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium, but no team has scored more runs this year than the Mets.
This doesn’t mean the Mets and Yankees are destined to meet in October. Even if you assign the Yankees an outlandish 32% probability of winning the AL pennant, as some sportsbooks do, and assign the Mets an aggressive 22% probability of winning the NL pennant, as FanGraphs does, that still leaves you with just a 7% chance of another Subway Series.
Nevertheless, though, have two teams together in America’s most prominent city ever been better than these two are, at the same time? Maybe in hockey. Maybe if you include the Devils there. Maybe.
Good Ump, Bad Ump
Jeremie Rehak had a strong game behind the plate last night, and in doing so I believe he moved past Pat Hoberg for the league lead in ball/strike accuracy, according to Ump Scorecards. Meanwhile, Doug Eddings had a jarringly terrible game in the wild one that was Blue Jays/White Sox, shifting the strike zone environment of the game 2.03 runs in the White Sox’ favor:
Eddings is not the worst umpire in the league. This was not the most inaccurate game in the league this year. This was not Eddings’s most inaccurate game in the league this year.
Presumably relatedly, Blue Jays hitting coach Guillermo Martínez was ejected while handing over the lineup card before today’s game.
The Cubs: Back Down
There was a moment during that Cardinals series a few weeks back when it seemed like the Cubs had an abundance of guys capable of turning in a quality start. At the time, they kind of did have that. After another rough Matt Swarmer outing last night, the Cubs no longer have that. The upside is there with the current rotation—if any one of Kyle Hendricks, Keegan Thompson, Justin Steele, and Alec Mills were to toss a good five or six innings, it wouldn’t be surprising, and Swarmer’s at least done it before (and recently)—but the expectation is not there. The rotation is, again, bad, and just three days after a pair of elated home wins over the defending World Series champions, the Cubs have lost three straight and are relying on Thompson to play stopper this evening.
In other Cubs bits:
- Mark Leiter Jr. is back up on the big-league club as Caleb Kilian returns to AAA to try to get back into his groove.
- Clint Frazier evidently goes by Jackson, his middle name, privately, and will now go by that publicly as well.
- Max Fried won his arbitration hearing, and while Max Fried isn’t on the Cubs, it’s nice to be reminded that the Cubs aren’t the only ones sending franchise cornerstones deep into the arbitration process. Really. A lot of the hate the Cubs’ front office receives is for industry-wide customs. That’s lost sometimes if you don’t follow other teams in a nitty-gritty fashion.
Shohei Ohtani Can Only Do So Much
On the topic of cornerstones, one of the Angels’ hit two home runs last night, singled, hit two sac flies, and drove in eight while his team lost in eleven innings to the Royals, who don’t have the worst record in baseball but are within striking distance. Anaheim tries to avoid a sweep by Kansas City tonight. Ohtani’s on the mound.
In other MLB bits:
- The commissioner’s office has sent out more detailed instructions on how to apply mud to baseballs, in an effort to make the balls more consistent. Lots of issues with that this year. Hopefully it works. Such an unforced error by an organization that makes a lot of unforced errors.
- Dylan Cease was outrageous in the White Sox/Blue Jays game, striking out eleven over six scoreless innings before the bullpen fell apart and Josh Harrison heroics (among others) were needed in extras. Still, the White Sox got the win. One they needed, with the Guardians’ surge lifting them to percentage points ahead of the Twins for the AL Central lead.
- Anthony DeSclafani came back from the 60-day IL, and it did not go well but the Giants still won 12-10 in Atlanta.
- The Cardinals beat the Brewers 6-2, pulling back even despite the absence of Paul Goldschmidt, who was resting what’s evidently an often-ailing back. I wish I could do what Paul Goldschmidt does. Guess my back must be worse than his.
- Isaac Paredes homered three times for the Rays in a 5-4 win over the Yankees. Paredes has a 128 wRC+ through 95 plate appearances, but his xwOBA is .280 compared to a wOBA of .338, which is especially ridiculous given he has a .154 BABIP. Basically, the guy is getting half the success you’d expect on balls in play, and xwOBA says he’s been unlucky? Either something’s off here on FanGraphs/StatCast or the sample size is too small.
Game 4
The Lightning have a chance to draw the Stanley Cup Finals even tonight. Gelo views the game as a tossup, as do betting markets. We’ve got a hedge down on the Avalanche that makes us favor them tonight, but our overall position is still one which favors the Lightning, so we’re a bit torn on the betting front. Nazem Kadri is expected to play for Colorado, and it appears Darcy Kuemper is going to start despite being pulled early in Game 3.
**
Viewing schedule, today/tonight, second screen rotation in italics:
- 2:00 PM EDT: Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M, College World Series (ESPN)
- 2:10 PM EDT: Mets @ Astros, Carrasco vs. Garcia (MLB TV)
- 2:10 PM EDT: Blue Jays @ White Sox, Stripling vs. Giolito (MLB TV)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Mississippi vs. Arkansas, College World Series (ESPN)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Cubs @ Pirates, Thompson vs. Eickhoff (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Yankees @ Rays, Montgomery vs. Baz (MLB TV)
- 7:20 PM EDT: Giants @ Atlanta, Rodón vs. Morton (MLB TV)
- 7:40 PM EDT: Guardians @ Twins, McKenzie vs. Gray (MLB TV)
- 8:00 PM EDT: Avalanche @ Lightning, Game 4 (ABC)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Cardinals @ Brewers, Wainwright vs. Lauer (MLB TV)
