The first NET rankings of the year are out, and we don’t need to look at them. They’re wonky, and they’re not very representative of where NET will end up. It’s way too early to release rankings from a system designed only to be strong when it has nearly a full season’s worth of data in its hands, and the only reason these early releases happen is to grab headlines. This is, of course, effective but it’s also annoying, because in releasing them now, the NCAA undermines trust in NET.
Is it a problem for the NCAA to undermine trust in the rating system it uses as the spine of its selection process? Yes and no. No, because it doesn’t affect the selection process and people are going to complain no matter what; Yes, because it gives people who want to hate NET a helpful thing to latch onto, and it makes people who are unsure about NET trust the system less, and more distrust of the system inevitably leads to me getting more annoying messages in March. “Why are you taking NET into account when it had Sam Houston State ranked 7th in December?” (Sam Houston State has played five Division I opponents and will assuredly drop when the system is allowed the time with which it was designed to work.)
It’s not necessary for fans to understand how the selection system works, and it’s not necessary for fans to like how the selection system works, and maybe there’s some argument to be made that in some roundabout way, getting a certain subset of fans pissed off about NET keeps them from directing that energy at officiating or transfer rules or whatever else may catch their eye. But in general, making something look worse than it is feels like a dumb idea to me. NET’s fine. It’s had one truly weird rating in its history, and that was Colgate’s in 2020, one that was both 1) explicable, because of Covid scheduling and 2) didn’t end up mattering, because the committee said, “Well that’s dumb.” NET is tons better than RPI as a gauge of how good teams are and, more importantly, what teams have accomplished. It also does away with a lot of the scheduling mechanizing RPI encouraged. I don’t know why we don’t use a Strength of Record system as the backbone, but NET’s the next best thing. The NCAA is just determined to make it look stupid.
Who’s Going to Win the NCAA Tournament?
A month ago tomorrow, with college basketball tipping off, we named six teams who could win the NCAA Tournament. They were…
- Gonzaga
- Kentucky
- Baylor
- Kansas
- North Carolina
- Houston
We also named Texas, Tennessee, and Virginia as teams you could include if you wanted to sound smart, and those look better, but our original six…ouch. One by one:
Gonzaga
Gonzaga struggled to put away Kent State last night, but the feisty mid-major was the least of their problems so far. They’ve got the narrow win over Michigan State on the aircraft carrier, the big win over Kentucky in an off-campus game in Spokane, and a narrow win over Xavier in Portland, but they were thumped on the road at Texas and in Portland by Purdue, and they lost to Baylor on Friday in South Dakota by a point.
That’s not great.
It’s still good, but it isn’t national championship-caliber right now, and while Gonzaga could be a late peaker, the situation at present seems to be that this is just not the team we’ve seen out of these guys for the last four years. This is 2018 Gonzaga, not 2019-22 Gonzaga. Not a death knell for the program by any stretch, but a down year, like Alabama’s in football this fall.
Kentucky
Kentucky’s still fifth in KenPom, and they just beat Michigan in London, but Michigan looks woeful right now and that’s the only good mark on Kentucky’s résumé. I’ll still consider them for our updated list, but their most impressive result aside from beating U of M was taking MSU to two overtimes at the Champions Classic. Oscar Tshiebwe appears healthy enough, but the team hasn’t beaten anyone yet, and kind of like Gonzaga with last night’s Kent State visit, Saturday’s game against Yale looks way scarier than it should be.
Baylor
Yikes. Baylor’s beaten Gonzaga and UCLA, which should be plenty, and they played Virginia close in the game where we confirmed that Virginia is, again, for real. Their loss at Marquette was a bludgeoning, though, and it’s not even like Marquette shot 60% from three. The Golden Eagles shot well, but they weren’t above 50%, and the real problems are that Baylor can’t hold onto the ball and lets their opponents move the rock like the 2015 Warriors. The Bears have the pieces to be fine, but they have a lot of work to do, and conference play starts kind of soon. Right now, they’re the clear third wheel in the Big 12.
Kansas
How do you put a shrug into words? The Jayhawks were in Baylor territory until late last week, when they pulverized Seton Hall in Lawrence. They’d edged Duke in New York, survived Wisconsin in the Bahamas, and laid a big egg against Tennessee (also in the Bahamas), but they were slipping fast. This rights the ship…by a little. Kansas is still outside the KenPom top ten, and KenPom isn’t everything—especially when it comes to determining where a team lands—but at the moment, the best impression is that this team doesn’t have it. Last year’s team never quite fell this low. National championship contenders shouldn’t.
North Carolina
YIKES.
Where to begin.
Well, UNC is 5-4, they’ve beaten James Madison and College of Charleston and Portland but they lost to Alabama, Indiana, Iowa State, and Virginia Tech, and losing to any one of those teams wouldn’t be cause for panic but losing to all four is bad.
Something that was often forgotten about this UNC team across the offseason was that they were quite an unimpressive team through last season’s first three months, and that even with their March surge, they might have been an underdog against Iowa on April 15th on a neutral court. Maybe UNC wasn’t really that good. Maybe they just got a bunch of good matchups (Duke was overrated by the media, if you can believe that) and played out of their minds for half the game against Baylor.
Houston
Ok these guys rock. Right? No sensational wins yet, but a lot of big wins, and the defense is terrifying. Kent State and Saint Mary’s both gave them games, but at the moment, it’s fair to call them the best.
Texas, Tennessee, Virginia
Texas hasn’t lost yet, and while it took a terrible shooting night from Creighton to make that true, Texas hasn’t lost yet. They haven’t played on the road, and they’ll only play their first game outside the state of Texas tonight (against Illinois at Madison Square Garden), but they do look good.
Tennessee has only lost to Colorado, a bizarre opening weekend defeat in Nashville. They’ve only beaten Kansas, of the other top teams, but they’ve been beating most opponents badly enough that KenPom is pouring gas on the fire, and we do trust KenPom.
Virginia not only beat Baylor but also took care of Illinois (both games were in Las Vegas at the end of the week the school lost those students in the bus shooting), and importantly, they’ve won on the road, beating Michigan in Ann Arbor in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Winning on the road can be overblown, but it does legitimize teams, and it’s legitimized this team, who—even with a letdown against Florida State on Saturday—might be back.
The New List
What’s our list now? I’d say we’ve got two, actually. The first is national championship contenders, and it goes…
- Houston
- Texas
- UConn
- Purdue
- Virginia
All four of these teams has a cause for doubt: Houston has had some ugly offensive showings (a threat which was its undoing last year), Texas and UConn each haven’t played a road game yet, Purdue and Virginia both struggled against Florida State. But none of the four have lost, Purdue and Virginia have won on the road, Texas and UConn have been beating the crap out of teams, and Houston’s making it nearly impossible for opponents to score.
The second list is KenPom darlings, and it’s simply…
- Tennessee
- Kentucky
We need to see better from both of them if we’re going to believe, but we also kind of do expect to see better, especially because each is a proven-enough program/coach combination to not have the sustainability doubts which accompany Texas and UConn. That said, they do share the one-dimensional concern that plagues Houston, Texas, and Purdue. A big takeaway here is that we don’t have great answers. The field is wide open.
As for the other four we removed: I’d say Gonzaga, Kansas, and Baylor are all in a category where they’re probably capable but they have issues right now, and that UNC is just not a national championship-caliber program these days. They were a magical run. They are not a dominant team. That’s our best guess at the moment.
Other Characters
UCLA’s also in the KenPom top ten, as is Arkansas. Indiana and Alabama are close outside it, as is Auburn, who remains undefeated, and Arizona, who got its pants pulled down at Utah in a major hype derailment. The sparknotes on those six are that UCLA’s 0-2 against top-20 KenPom competition but keeps beating everyone else; that Arkansas’s talented and playing well early but has yet to play anyone better than Creighton, who’s trying to figure things out; that Indiana has been good and beat Xavier on the road but was an early victim of a road conference game, crushed at Rutgers on Saturday on a day plenty other good teams will imitate but could also be a display of legitimate vulnerability; that Alabama got wrecked by UConn but so did everyone else; that Auburn’s toughest game was against Saint Louis or Northwestern; and that Arizona needs to start playing a little defense.
That’s the rundown of the high-level college basketball picture.
Iowa State’s Hot Start
It’s been a good month for the Cyclones, who are up from 62nd in KenPom before the year to 41st right now and have picked up wins over all three of Villanova, UNC, and St. John’s while only losing to UConn. These guys haven’t had trouble with any of the buy games, either, which is a very good baseline.
I haven’t been able to watch a ton or follow too closely, but going by numbers, I’m encouraged to see Tamin Lipsey doing so much in these early stages of his freshman year, and I’m excited about Osun Osunniyi. The wings have slightly varied skillsets but are kind of a collective roll of the dice every night, and Jaren Holmes is a nice default point guard but has a low ceiling, and Hason Ward and Robert Jones have upside but also downside, but having a good freshman guard in Lipsey and a strong experienced big in Osunniyi is a happy combination. It’s a little like having a baseball team that’s strong up the middle.
Also: Can T.J. Otzelberger coach? We knew he could recruit, but this is two years in a row where the early returns on what he’s getting from this roster are close to outrageous. The defense is good again, and the offense is struggling but it’s a step better than last year’s. They’re looking like a tournament team, which was far from guaranteed thirty days ago right now.
Bellinger to the Cubs, Everyone Else to Everywhere Else (So Far)
Apologies to Cubs readers for being so dang out of the loop for the second straight year once the playoffs started. Hopefully it’s a two-month thing this time instead of a six-month thing.
The Cubs made their first move of free agency today, picking up Cody Bellinger for one year and 17.5 million dollars. It’s a stabilizing move while the Cubs wait for their outfield prospects to round into form, and while it’s partially a bet on a bounceback campaign from the 27-year-old former MVP, it’s also a purchase of good center field defense, which is valuable. Overall, the only lens through which it’s a bad move is one where only 2021 and 2022 are representative of this guy as a player. If you include 2020 or any other season, it’s a good price.
Not a lot else on the Cubs right now (though hopefully we’ll get a whole lot more soon). Things have been happening, but it’s all either raw speculation or smaller things, things where I don’t have much to add to what others have said. Instead, let’s move on to thoughts on every other big signing so far on which we have thoughts (I don’t have many thoughts on any trades so far—feel like a lot of moves that could look like a huge deal in hindsight but are currently quiet):
Justin Verlander to the Mets
If you have the resources/willingness to give Verlander his price, you probably have the resources to spend enough around him to be ok if he falters. The high-value, low-duration deal was exactly what was expected, and it’s both a good and fun fit for Verlander and a great addition to the Mets’ rotation.
Jacob deGrom to the Rangers
On that topic: I would take Verlander over deGrom 100% of the time, even with the five-year age gap. For one thing, 35 is old. Jacob deGrom is old. Add in all the injuries and it’s even worse. I get the argument that if you can sign Jacob deGrom, you have to sign him, and he’s without question the best pitcher alive, but it’s so hard to trust him to stay healthy. And 35 is old! He came up at 26. People do not realize how old Jacob deGrom is.
The Rangers feel like they’re doing the Angels thing of signing a handful of awesome players and expecting them to carry a whole team. That’s not possible.
Trea Turner to the Phillies
I assume this is a commitment to blow away the luxury tax for a few years to come? I feel like I remember that being an issue for the Phils in recent years. Maybe the World Series trip got them off that. With the farm system still a long way from fruitfulness and with the NL East still tough (it isn’t as tough as it seems, but more on that another time), this is a necessary kind of move. It’s also fun. It’s fun when a pennant-winner doubles down in the offseason.
Clayton Kershaw back to the Dodgers
We’re close to Kershaw spending his whole career with the Dodgers, and that’s special.
Anthony Rizzo back to the Yankees
If I were Anthony Rizzo, I’d pay to play on the Yankees. What a ballpark for a hitter like him. Weird to see him becoming a face of the franchise, though, especially if Aaron Judge does leave. Will Anthony Rizzo go into the Hall of Fame as a Yankee if he makes it? Ugh.
Martín Pérez back to the Rangers
Joc Pederson back to the Giants
The perfect guys to be offered qualifying offers and the perfect guys to accept them. Breakout years, significant doubts, now they get a chance to try to prove themselves.
José Abreu to the Astros
Abreu’s a weird hitter because he’s kind of peaked late. Is he aging well? Was he a late bloomer, debuting at 27? The deal implies something like 2.0 WAR per year, and I’d imagine he’ll exceed that. So, good pickup. A little sad the Cubs didn’t make this deal.
Edwin Díaz back to the Mets
I would never give five years of $20M to a relief pitcher, but maybe I’m a coward.
Others
I see Josh Bell and Zach Eflin and Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney and Mike Clevinger and I just don’t have strong feelings or any worthwhile thought. Let’s call it a day on baseball and see what tomorrow brings.
Robinson, Garoppolo, Mayfield
Kind of a busy day in NFL news, which I guess makes sense in the middle of a playoff push. Jon Robinson’s out as the GM in Tennessee, Jimmy Garoppolo won’t have surgery (reportedly “does not need surgery,” per Adam Schefter, but that could just mean he doesn’t need surgery right now) and could be back in time for the playoffs, the Rams picked up Baker Mayfield.
With the Rams playing Thursday, I’d imagine we can’t see Mayfield this week, though I wonder how universal football playbooks are, and what a team could do with twelve plays or something like that. The timing would be terrible, the plays would have to be simplistic, it’s probably only something a team with a dominant offensive line could do to any positive effect, but if we’re looking for new ways to torture Al Michaels on Thursday night, it’s certainly an idea.
Garoppolo’s return is intriguing partially because we don’t know how essential he is to that offense. He’s had a great year, but he’s been playing in the ideal situation, and the rap on him was always supposed to be that he was good in good situations, like Tom Brady without the legacy of heroics. Brock Purdy steps into the same situation Garoppolo inhabited, with playmakers at the ready and a good line in front of him and a creative offensive mind at the helm and a strong defense backing him up. He connected on a lot of short routes on Sunday, which is exactly what he did in college, and while you need the downfield threat, I’m curious if an offense like the 49ers’ needs it as badly as what we think of as more traditional units need it. Put otherwise: Do the 49ers have varied enough threats that the necessity of connecting deep is as essential as it is for, to pick a team, the Vikings?
I’m not saying Purdy can seamlessly step in for Garoppolo. But it wouldn’t be surprising to see some version of him putting up numbers, another team trading for him this offseason, that team expecting him to be The Guy, and him being unable to be The Guy. Hopefully he goes off and keeps going off for years—I love Brock Purdy—but his best-case is probably…Garoppolo. Heroics-less Brady. Not bad at all, but needs a good situation.
Finally, Jon Robinson. This one’s weird and dramatic, weird because the Titans are in the midst of their most successful stretch as a franchise since the Warren Moon era and dramatic because it comes immediately after A.J. Brown, whom Robinson traded, cut up the Titans. It feels like a situation where there’s something bigger happening behind the scenes. Not necessarily nefarious, but this feels like a firing that’s about more than strictly performance.
Of Course the Packers Want Rodgers Back
The Packers headlines yesterday were about Matt LaFleur and Brian Gutekunst answering the question of whether he wants Aaron Rodgers back next year with some variation of, “Yeah, duh, of course,” and while the question has to be asked, the answer is obvious. Why would you not want Aaron Rodgers back?
At some point, yes, the Packers need to move on to Jordan Love (or whoever the guy is, if they ultimately decide to move on from Love, but Gutekunst saying “We’ve seen what we need to see” about picking up Love’s 2024 option sounds like “We’re picking up that option” to me). But when they locked up Rodgers this offseason, it was pretty clearly for more than a year, or so it at least felt to me. I could be wrong, I’m often wrong, but it’s hard to see the Packers making that big of a commitment if the intention was not to—in situations in which Rodgers wants to keep playing and keep playing for the Packers—let him run for another two years, 2022 and 2023. The bigger possibility in my eye is Rodgers retiring. He’s flirted with it before, and maybe I read too much into the salute, but it felt like a goodbye to Bears fans. I don’t really think he will retire, but that seems to be the choice. It’s not Rodgers vs. Love for the Packers. It’s not Packers vs. Elsewhere for Rodgers. It’s Packers vs. Retirement.
The Heisman Race That Wasn’t
We got our list of Heisman finalists, and it’s pretty standard fair: Caleb Williams, C.J. Stroud, Max Duggan, Stetson Bennett. Bennett’s inclusion is a little funny. Probably not as funny as those who didn’t follow him a ton this year think, but a little funny. It feels like a courtesy invite, stemming from a lot of voters looking for a guy to fill out their ballot.
It’s too bad we didn’t get a more dramatic Williams vs. Stroud race. That feels like it should have been the competition. Williams really turned it on at the end, seizing heavy control of the “favorite” mantle, while Stroud just kind of did what he did last year, which is put up numbers and lose to Michigan. Stroud, much like Ohio State, is almost really good. But he isn’t really good. He’s merely good.
In other college football news, Sean Lewis is leaving Kent State to take the offensive coordinator job at Colorado, which is big news for Colorado fans and medium news for Pac-12 fans but mostly interesting to us because Lewis was Kent State’s head coach. He’s taking a smaller job at Colorado. This speaks to two things, I’d offer:
The first is that the MAC is a very hard place to succeed nationally in football. It’s a bad league. A very bad league. Resources are extremely scarce, talent isn’t readily available, it’s a hard place to coach football, and very much the bottom of the heap in the FBS. Stable, as we’ve talked about before, but bad. Stable because it is bad.
The second is that Colorado is paying Lewis, we’d imagine, and I’m interested in whether this is a larger commitment from the school(’s donors, it’s all about donors) to football than we’ve seen in the past. If it is, it could be interpreted as a fear-based tactic. Colorado’s revenue is low. They are one of the lowest-revenue Power Five athletic departments in the country. And while revenue isn’t everything, it’s a reflection of how much interest the school’s athletics generate, and that’s a big deal in the conference realignment equations. The Big 12 or some bizarro expanded ACC would probably still take Colorado, because it’s helpful to have a presence in young growing large prominent cities like Denver, for both TV revenue and alumni engagement (a piece of the Rutgers formula I never appreciated), but it would help if they could, you know, be better.
**
Viewing schedule tonight, all college basketball of interest (second screen rotation in italics):
- 7:00 PM EST: Illinois vs. Texas (ESPN)
- 9:00 PM EST: Maryland @ Wisconsin (ESPN2)
- 9:30 PM EST: Iowa vs. Duke (ESPN)
