I don’t know if this came from an on-the-record interview or a bunch of private conversations that found their way around Chicago, but the word is that Theo Epstein’s philosophy on the best approach to winning championships was to get the team in the playoffs as many times as possible and see what happened. It’s a numbers game, the reasoning goes, and while it’s better to be a great team on paper once you get to October than a mediocre one who snuck in, the nature of baseball makes it harder than in any other sport to stand out in a sample size as small as the playoffs. The 90’s Yankees won World Series after World Series. The 2000’s and 2010’s Yankees? It evened out.
It’s this last part of the logic we’re going to look at today. How often, since Major League Baseball expanded its postseason to include the Division Series, has each team made the playoffs? And how often has each team won the World Series? Ultimately, what’s each team’s success rate?
To handle the Wild Card Game era, we’re assigning half-berths to Wild Cards in relevant seasons. To handle 2020, we’re assigning half-berths to everybody who made those playoffs. If regular season performance worthy of making the Division Series counts as 1, it’s fair for regular season performance worthy of simply a 50/50 shot at the LDS to count as 0.5.
First, let’s look at the appearances and titles, in order of appearances, since that’s arguably our best way to gauge real franchise success these last 27 years:
| Team | Appearances | Titles |
| NYY | 20.5 | 5 |
| ATL | 17 | 2 |
| STL | 14.5 | 2 |
| LAD | 14 | 1 |
| BOS | 13.5 | 4 |
| CLE | 11 | 0 |
| HOU | 11 | 1 |
| OAK | 9 | 0 |
| SF | 8 | 3 |
| MIN | 8 | 0 |
| TEX | 7.5 | 0 |
| CHC | 7.5 | 1 |
| LAA | 7 | 1 |
| TB | 5.5 | 0 |
| ARZ | 5.5 | 1 |
| MIL | 5 | 0 |
| DET | 5 | 0 |
| PHI | 5 | 1 |
| CWS | 4.5 | 1 |
| SD | 4.5 | 0 |
| NYM | 4.5 | 0 |
| WSH | 4.5 | 1 |
| SEA | 4 | 0 |
| COL | 4 | 0 |
| CIN | 4 | 0 |
| BAL | 4 | 0 |
| MIA | 2.5 | 2 |
| TOR | 2 | 0 |
| PIT | 1.5 | 0 |
| KC | 1.5 | 1 |
Now, let’s look at success rate:
| Team | Appearances | Titles | Success Rate |
| MIA | 2.5 | 2 | 80% |
| KC | 1.5 | 1 | 67% |
| SF | 8 | 3 | 38% |
| BOS | 13.5 | 4 | 30% |
| NYY | 20.5 | 5 | 24% |
| CWS | 4.5 | 1 | 22% |
| WSH | 4.5 | 1 | 22% |
| PHI | 5 | 1 | 20% |
| ARZ | 5.5 | 1 | 18% |
| LAA | 7 | 1 | 14% |
| STL | 14.5 | 2 | 14% |
| CHC | 7.5 | 1 | 13% |
| ATL | 17 | 2 | 12% |
| HOU | 11 | 1 | 9% |
| LAD | 14 | 1 | 7% |
| CLE | 11 | 0 | 0% |
| OAK | 9 | 0 | 0% |
| MIN | 8 | 0 | 0% |
| TEX | 7.5 | 0 | 0% |
| TB | 5.5 | 0 | 0% |
| MIL | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| DET | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| SD | 4.5 | 0 | 0% |
| NYM | 4.5 | 0 | 0% |
| SEA | 4 | 0 | 0% |
| COL | 4 | 0 | 0% |
| CIN | 4 | 0 | 0% |
| BAL | 4 | 0 | 0% |
| TOR | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| PIT | 1.5 | 0 | 0% |
And finally, let’s look at that same list, but narrowed to only the thirteen teams who’ve registered seven or more of what we’re calling “appearances” over this 27-year period (the average is 7.2):
| Team | Appearances | Titles | Success Rate |
| SF | 8 | 3 | 38% |
| BOS | 13.5 | 4 | 30% |
| NYY | 20.5 | 5 | 24% |
| LAA | 7 | 1 | 14% |
| STL | 14.5 | 2 | 14% |
| CHC | 7.5 | 1 | 13% |
| ATL | 17 | 2 | 12% |
| HOU | 11 | 1 | 9% |
| LAD | 14 | 1 | 7% |
| CLE | 11 | 0 | 0% |
| OAK | 9 | 0 | 0% |
| MIN | 8 | 0 | 0% |
| TEX | 7.5 | 0 | 0% |
If the postseason was a true crapshoot, every team’s success rate would come out to 12.5%, meaning every team above 12.5% would be considered lucky, and every team below 12.5% would be considered unlucky. Honestly, the numbers aren’t far off. The A’s, Rangers, Guardians, and Dodgers have seemed unlucky, as have the Astros. The Giants and Red Sox have seemed a little lucky. The Yankees sure dominated the late 90’s, but their performance since has pulled them down towards the mean.
There’s luck inherent to cashing in on an opportunity. A great argument can be made that the Cubs were lucky to win in 2016. There’s skill inherent to getting yourselves a seat at the table again and again and again, and for as bad as the AL Central has been since 2013 realignment, the Guardians and Twins have each been successful by the fairest measure. The bottom line? The Royals and Marlins did a lot of things right. But they also sure got lucky.
Dayton Moore Is Out
On that topic: Dayton Moore is out as president of baseball ops for the Kansas City Royals. Since their title, the club has finished at or above .500 exactly once, in 2016, and that was an “at” season, not an “above” season. The wisdom of the title-winning team’s construction is an open debate, but the original idea of moneyball was to find the undervalued skills and buy them cheap, and you could argue the Royals did that. It’s the later performance under Moore that makes it appear this was more a happy accident than actual wisdom, but hey—it worked, didn’t it?
Kansas City had an absolute blast with that 2015 team, and with the 2014 team before it. By cutting the cord now, the franchise keeps Moore as an out-and-out hero. So, good for all involved on that.
This leaves four franchises in states of seismic change: The Tigers are assembling a new front office. The Royals will soon have a new front office. The Nationals and Angels are each approaching sale. The Rangers are undergoing a big transition, but they were active enough last offseason that they’re rather locked into certain identity pillars, and while trades are possible, they aren’t likely. The bones of that roster are staying the same.
Will more join the list? It seems doubtful. The Diamondbacks had a good year in the context of what they were trying to do. The Rockies appear committed to their approach, whatever it is. The Giants won 107 games last year. The Red Sox nearly made last fall’s World Series. The Cubs seem committed to their Epstein-era approach, with his apprentice Jed Hoyer still holding the reins and expectations set that next year will bring progress, if not success. The Pirates and Reds are two to watch, I suppose. Kim Ng is still fairly new in Miami. The A’s are trying to move to Las Vegas, which would make one assume ownership doesn’t particularly want a winner right now. Everyone else was either listed above or spent most of this year in the playoff chase (though the Yankees could ditch Brian Cashman this offseason and it wouldn’t feel like a shock, even if the thinking supporting such a move is rather dumb).
Games, news:
Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge hit his 60th last night, in the process sparking a five-run ninth inning rally that led the Yankees to a 9-8 win over the Pirates. The victory doesn’t mean much itself, but for a team struggling to win, it might be a big internal deal, and a guy hitting 60 home runs is a big deal externally as well. A great moment. Good for him.
Albert Pujols
We haven’t checked in on the other home run race in a while. Pujols went 2-for-3 last night, but he’s still at 698 all time, and FanGraphs’s Depth Charts—our go-to projection system—now has him effectively below 50% likely to hit the milestone this year.
NL Wild Card
The Cardinals lost that game, 5-0, to the Padres, and with the Phillies allowing 18 to the Blue Jays (they did score eleven of their own), San Diego’s now ahead of Philadelphia by more than a game. With the Brewers falling again to the Mets (Brad Boxberger and Taylor Rogers allowed seven runs and got five outs, as everyone continues to lose the Josh Hader trade), the Phils retained their two and a half game lead on a playoff slot.
AL Wild Card
The Rays were blanked by the Astros, and the Mariners only scored one against JP Sears and the Rays, so it was Toronto picking up a game in the seeding shuffle. They’re now two ahead of both the others in the loss column.
AL Central
Over in the Central, the Guardians won a festival over the White Sox, as the teams entered the tenth tied at three and finished the game having scored a combined eleven additional runs. Seven of those came from Cleveland, with Myles Straw’s eleventh-inning double the big play.
This doesn’t quite bury the White Sox, but it’s close. That deficit’s up to five. Triston McKenzie vs. Lance Lynn tonight.
NL East
Finally, the race that won’t end: Both New York and Atlanta won last night, though the Nats made it interesting down south in the ninth. Still a one-game spread.
News
Buster Posey joined the Giants’ ownership group, purchasing a minority share. Not a ton else. Kurt Suzuki’s retiring. 39 already? Time flies.
The Cubs
Keegan Thompson’s back active, though he’ll exclusively throw out of the bullpen. Jeremiah Estrada goes back to AAA.
At Double-A, the Smokies lost their first playoff game to the Trash Pandas. Elimination game tomorrow. At High-A, South Bend beat the Captains and will play a rubber-match at 7:00 PM EDT tonight for the Midwest League title. Not seeing odds on that. From that roster: Owen Caissie, one of the Cubs’ top prospects, and B.J. Murray, not one of the Cubs’ top prospects but a 22-year-old who’s been raking, have both been added to the Arizona Fall League.
**
Viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:
MLB (of playoff significance and/or home run record significance, plus the Cubs):
- 12:20 PM EDT: Washington @ Atlanta, Espino vs. Elder (MLB TV)
- 2:10 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ Milwaukee, Walker vs. Houser (MLB TV)
- 6:40 PM EDT: Cubs @ Miami, Stroman vs. Luzardo (MLB TV)
- 6:40 PM EDT: Houston @ Tampa Bay, McCullers vs. Kluber (MLB TV)
- 6:45 PM EDT: Toronto @ Philadelphia, Gausman vs. Wheeler (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Pittsburgh @ New York (AL), Contreras vs. Severino (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Chicago (AL), McKenzie vs. Lynn (MLB TV)
- 9:40 PM EDT: Seattle @ Oakland, Ray vs. Kaprielian (MLB TV)
- 9:40 PM EDT: St. Louis @ San Diego, Mikolas vs. Snell (MLB TV)
