I think he first said it in an interview with the Tampa Bay Times, and I think he next said it on Jayson Stark’s podcast, but Joe Maddon is unhappy with the way front offices are handling analytics. It was evidently a point of tension for him while with the Angels, and it was evidently a point of tension for him in the latter half of his time with the Cubs, and his basic messages are that 1) it’s all just too much, it’s overkill and 2) at some point, what’s left for a manager to do?
The first point is worthy of debate—at some point, returns do diminish, and the prospect of overwhelm in something as psychological as baseball is a legitimate concern—but we’re going to focus on the second: What is there left for a manager to do?
Baseball is not fully strategically optimized. Teams haven’t gotten there yet, nor will they ever get there, as part of strategic optimization involves reacting to opponents’ decisions. But front offices have, over the last two decades, grown more prescriptive in their directions to managers. Is this true for every team? Probably not. But gone are the days when Grady Little could leave Pedro Martinez in too long in the deciding game of an ALCS.
It makes sense to have a strategist making strategic decisions the same way it makes sense for a surgeon to perform surgery. “Baseball guys”—the ones hired to be managers, almost always former players—are strategists to an extent. But it isn’t a comparative strength of theirs. Analytics departments are better equipped to identify which pinch hitter is the best bet in which situation than Aaron Boone or David Ross is, and it’s in the best interests of the team for the manager to be someone who accepts that. This is why it was so strange for the White Sox to hire Tony La Russa. He comes from a different era, and his reputation is not one of humility.
If your head coach isn’t deciding who plays and sits, though, what’s the point of having a head coach? This is where baseball separates from other major sports.
Since the statistical revolution began, the constant refrain has been that managers don’t make as big of a difference as players do. The difference between Connie Mack and Bernie Mac, placed in a managerial role, should not be worth more than a few wins (according to statisticians over the last fifty years or so). Strategy matters, but in baseball, a lot more comes back to the simple ability of the players on the field.
This could be used to argue that teams should give managers back more strategic control. What’s the worst that could happen? Again, this could be debated. But the broader point is this:
Strategy is not the manager’s main job.
The manager’s main job is leadership.
Baseball is a mental game. Baseball is a mentally exhausting game. Baseball is a mentally trying game. A manager’s biggest job is not choosing the best lineup or optimizing the order of his rotation. A manager’s biggest job is keeping his players in the best mental state possible. Joe Maddon received plenty of attention for his strategy. But he received more attention for the atmosphere he created within the team. And deservedly so.
This new generation of managers is going to know this. Many already do, Boone and Ross high among them. Their job is not just to pull a pitcher at the right moment. In fact, that’s not really the primary responsibility. Their job is to navigate fifteen road trips a year amidst the frustrations of April and doldrums of June and the pressure of August and September. Their job is to make the right players comfortable and the right players uncomfortable. Their job is to motivate, and to channel energy in the right directions. Great bullpen usage is a wonderful thing to have, but computers can do a damn good job of it, and even the wisest pitching change can be washed out by luck. Great chemistry is not quantifiable. Its impact may be bigger. That’s the manager’s job now. It always has been, but now it’s the focus.
The East Is All Knotted Up
Atlanta won a busy one in Oakland after the Mets lost to the Pirates, and the top of the NL East enters play today tied. Which makes now a good time to remind: They got rid of the tiebreaker game. Those bastards got rid of the tiebreaker game. It’s all decided by head-to-head now, or at least I assume it is. Maybe it’s the All-Star Game again.
Anyway, the East is tied, and this last month is now even bigger. I’m curious if there’s any merit to the concept of teams burning themselves out. I’m curious if that’ll change with a longer layoff now for teams receiving first-round byes. I’m curious how much the Mets’ remaining schedule—the easier of the two—matters. Lot to learn. Also, Max Scherzer went on the IL this morning with what he’s describing as an “achy” left side. He’s stressing that it’s minor, but that’s not going to reassure anybody in Queens.
Other races, with their respective news:
NL Wild Card
The Brewers took a 6-1 lead into the bottom of the eighth last night in Denver, then proceded to lose 10-7 in extra innings on a Randal Grichuk walk-off dinger. It was a very Colorado thing to happen, but it was also yet another frustration just as Milwaukee was starting to get its legs back under it a bit. The Phillies edged the Marlins, the Padres came back in the ninth to beat the Diamondbacks (Jorge Alfaro had the walk-off single there), and the Brewers’ playoff gap is back to three games. As with the Mets, the remaining schedule is easier, but the frustration’s gotta be so high right now. This is a time when a good manager is useful.
In other news for the Brewers (more relevantly, whichever of these teams plays the Cardinals), Dylan Carlson’s going on the IL with a thumb sprain, but the guy they’re calling up is a middle-tier prospect who’s been mashing at AAA, so he’ll probably become a Hall-of-Famer.
AL East
The Yankees were rained out, and while they waited the Rays beat the Red Sox but the Blue Jays lost to the Orioles, trimming the New York lead to four and a half games over Tampa Bay and six over Toronto (Tampa Bay has the tough schedule there). Remember when there was all that talk about another Subway Series in October?
Evidently Anthony Rizzo’s epidural was to address his back, but he’s now been suffering from headaches as well. Scary stuff, sad stuff for Rizzo amidst the pennant chase.
AL Central
The White Sox fell to the Mariners, blanked mostly by Logan Gilbert, who struck out nine without walking a batter over six innings of work. The Guardians beat the Royals, and with the Twins rained out that gives Cleveland a one and a half-game lead over Minnesota and a three-game lead over the Sox, flipping them back across the 50% mark to win this thing in FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds.
The Cubs
It was a nice win for the Cubs last night, made even nicer by Hayden Wesneski tossing five stellar innings in relief of Wade Miley in Wesneski’s Major League debut. Eight strikeouts, one walk, an infinite number of Yankees fans furiously asking Brian Cashman why they gave this guy up for a high-risk, high-reward reliever who’s now hurt (hope Effross returns—he was cool). Wesneski’s not a standout prospect, but like many Cubs, his upside is prominent. In other words, don’t get attached, but go ahead and enjoy it.
Speaking of young pitchers, Jed Hoyer implied yesterday that Keegan Thompson and Justin Steele could both be shut down for the year with their back issues, but did say Adbert Alzolay might get called back up soon from his own injury and make his season debut.
Iowa State Injury News
Cartevious Norton won’t play for Iowa State on Saturday after hurting his leg last week against SEMO. Jake Remsburg remains questionable.
**
Viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:
- 12:35 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ Pittsburgh – Game 1, Bassitt vs. Underwood (MLB TV)
- 3:05 PM EDT: Minnesota @ New York (AL) – Game 1, Varland vs. Germán (MLB TV)
- 3:10 PM EDT: Milwaukee @ Colorado, Lauer vs. Freeland (MLB TV)
- 3:37 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Oakland, Strider vs. Waldichuk (MLB TV)
- 4:10 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Seattle, Kopech vs. Castillo (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- 4:10 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Los Angeles, Cobb vs. Kershaw (MLB TV)
- 6:35 PM EDT: Minnesota @ New York (AL) – Game 2, Ryan vs. Cole (MLB TV)
- 6:35 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ Pittsburgh – Game 2, deGrom vs. TBD (MLB TV)
- 6:40 PM EDT: Boston @ Tampa Bay, Pivetta vs. Springs (MLB TV)
- 6:45 PM EDT: Miami @ Philadelphia, Rogers vs. Falter (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Toronto @ Baltimore, Manoah vs. Wells (MLB TV)
- 7:40 PM EDT: Cincinnati @ Cubs, Minor vs. Assad (MLB TV)
- 7:45 PM EDT: Washington @ St. Louis, Abbott vs. Montgomery (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Kansas City, Morris vs. Greinke (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Texas @ Houston, Ragans vs. Javier (MLB TV)
- 8:40 PM EDT: Arizona @ San Diego, Henry vs. Darvish (FS1)
