According to canon, I was not in Virginia this week, but also according to canon, someone has to edit these things, and that someone is not me. Let’s catch up:
Nine Lanes Merging to…Six?
Here’s the full weekend preview from yesterday, but the basic overview of the college football weekend is that there are nine lanes to predictable playoff berths (two in the SEC, two in the Big Ten, one each in the ACC/Big 12/Pac-12, one each for Cincinnati/Notre Dame), and that the most likely number of those nine to close today is three. One could close with Ohio State beating Michigan State. One could close with Utah beating Oregon. One could close with Clemson beating Wake Forest. One could close if both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State lose. There are others at stake, but these four are the ones where we’re most expecting some plot development.
Uncasville and the Hall of Fame
The Cheez-It Hall of Fame Tip-Off is going down in Uncasville this weekend, and despite what most words in that sentence suggest, it’s our best college basketball of the week. Villanova, Tennessee, Purdue, and North Carolina. Three of those four teams are legitimate contenders for a number one seed in March. One of them is North Carolina. But even the Tar Heels are 3-0, and the polls think more highly of them than KenPom, or by extension, I. Villanova/Tennessee today should be fun. The winner against probably Purdue tomorrow should also be fun.
Is the Hall of Fame in Uncasville? No. It’s an hour away from Uncasville. I don’t know what’s going on with the name here. They’re playing basketball at a casino. Pretty good basketball.
Good Times for T.J. Otzelberger
Iowa State’s off to a 3-0 start, and while none of the wins were particularly impressive (Oregon State was the highlight, and Oregon State isn’t expected to make the NIT), it’s better than the alternative. Turnovers are the big concern so far, but the defense is forcing them at the same time, as our early impressions of Iowa State’s identity imply that this is an aggressive team with strong perimeter defense, some ability to get to the hoop, and poor rebounding/shooting. Those are dangerous impressions to make based on two games against low-majors and one against Oregon State, but they’re our impressions. The Cyclones host Grambling State tomorrow evening before heading to Brooklyn for the week.
Bad Times for Matt Campbell
I guess I didn’t post about this yet, but man. That Texas Tech loss. Awful. Just awful football.
On the one hand, it’s nice to be able to be disappointed by an Iowa State football team that’s 6-4. On the other hand, this team has been better than each of its opponents, and it’s lost four times. There’s still a Big 12 Championship shot, but they need a lot of help, and they need to beat a mediocre Oklahoma today in Norman. 11 AM Central kickoff on FOX.
MLB Contract Season
The most important contract of the offseason appears far from completion, with little good to report about CBA negotiations. In free agent news, Justin Verlander’s coming back to the Astros, Noah Syndergaard’s going to Anaheim, Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer, and Eduardo Rodriguez signed a five-year deal with the Tigers. There’s interest with each of these signings.
Verlander’s an unknown, having thrown just six innings since 2019. He’s only an unknown to an extent, though. The first round of projections on him from FanGraphs currently are that he’ll be worth 3.6 fWAR in 2022, and while that might sound high, remember that even over the seven years preceding 2020, the worst sample you can find, he averaged 4.8 fWAR. Over the two years preceding 2020, he averaged 6.5 fWAR. Might he fall off a cliff? Yes. But for two years at $25M a year, the Astros are taking a good risk, especially given how thin their starting pitching is (Verlander can opt out after 2022, but if he does that, the Astros will have gotten a bargain anyway).
I can’t decide whether Belt’s on a prove-it deal or if he just wants to stay in San Francisco. At 34, at first base, with a lockout looming, I can see why Belt would say, “You know what, let’s take the $18.4 million.” Could he get more? Probably, but it’s unclear if he could actually get much more. His 2021 season was the only one where he put up more than 2.3 fWAR (coincidentally right around what you’d expect to garner $18.4M in the old $8M/WAR dichotomy) since 2016. FanGraphs currently only has him projected to be worth 2.1 fWAR this coming season. He’s reportedly still working on an extension with the Giants, which makes the most sense. So, I guess I can decide. Leaving San Francisco, possibly on the back of a tumultuous free agency period, isn’t worth a little extra cash to him. Seems like the right call, and the Giants will be happy to have him.
Syndergaard signed a one-year deal for $21M. His health’s the question mark, but to be fair to his health, from 2015 to 2019 he averaged about 143 innings a season. That’s not a ton, but it’s not exactly the profile of a guy who’s constantly hurt. When he’s healthy, he’s crazy good. 2.93 FIP. If the Angels can get that many innings at that FIP, this will have been a good deal, with plenty of playoff upside. Also, what a seemingly low-pressure place to be an ace.
Rodriguez signed for what seems like a bargain for Detroit. The risk lies in the deal’s longevity, but as long as his heart’s fine with whatever the long-term effects are of Covid, he’s as good a bet as anybody to be a productive starter for a good bit of time. The AL Central’s fairly open. The Tigers are stepping up. Would be fun to have them back.
In non-free agency contract news, the Blue Jays extended José Berríos at an AAV of $18.7M. Seems like a good deal for Toronto for the production they can expect to get, though the worst-case with pitchers always feels terrifying. For Berríos, he’ll be a rich man, and being a possibly richer man through reaching free agency sooner doesn’t seem to have been worth the risks attached.
No other huge signings, I don’t think, but Wander Franco’s been offered a massive extension by the Rays, which could be a hugely interesting thought exercise. We’ll be keeping an eye on it.
The 40-man roster deadline for the Rule 5 draft was yesterday, and the only big news I noticed was that the Yankees DFA’d Clint Frazier, Rougned Odor, and Tyler Wade. It speaks, more than anything, to the Yankees’ depth, but with Frazier particularly, it also speaks to how things haven’t panned out in the Bronx in recent years.
MLB Awards Season
Aside from Manager of the Year, the MLB player awards have been handed out, with the MVP’s going to Bryce Harper and Shohei Ohtani, the Cy Youngs going to Robbie Ray and Corbin Burnes, and the Rookies of the Year going to Randy Arozarena and Jonathan India. I would have personally taken Trevor Rogers over India, but aside from that, no complaints from me. Corbin Burnes winning got some heat because he only threw 167 innings (Zack Wheeler threw 213 and an out), but Burnes led MLB in pitcher fWAR even while only throwing that many innings. I don’t really understand the complaint. He was so good over that sample that he contributed more than another outrageously good pitcher who threw 46 more innings. And if you want to play the team need card, the Brewers won their division comfortably and had no shot at the Wild Card. Did he hurt his team by not getting vaccinated and then getting Covid? Yes. But it had no real impact.
Weekend Viewing
Tomorrow, Purdue vs. whoever wins (or loses) that Tennessee/Villanova game. Today, all the football. Wake Forest/Clemson should be good if you aren’t among those of us with Iowa State ties. Cincinnati/SMU is high stakes, and Wisconsin/Nebraska should be fun, as could be Virginia/Pitt and as will likely be Baylor/Kansas State. Oregon/Utah should be a great one, with some potential from Oklahoma State/Texas Tech. Great day all around. Enjoy it.
