Let’s talk about…well, last night first, I suppose.
Brian Kelly Is Self-Aware
During last night’s Texas Bowl (well done, Kansas State, we’re all proud of you, and I mean that with sincerity we really like you guys), Brian Kelly gave an interview, and I’m mostly interested in it because of how much it was just about the accent thing. Brian Kelly, based on his navigation of the topic when asked, knows he got made fun of for that gimmick (if you’ve missed all of this, one of Kelly’s first appearances as LSU’s head football coach involved him taking on an exaggerated Southern-ish drawl, which was then obviously widely panned). This isn’t actually surprising, but it does remind us of something important concerning Kelly: He’s a human being. He has ears. He has eyes. And his humanity implies he knows things beyond what we think of his accent. He presumably knows what we think of him. Brian Kelly probably knows that nobody really likes him. Some are neutral on him, but nobody says, “You know who seems like a great guy? Brian Kelly.” He knows this. He’s aware of it. What a thing to know about oneself.
Illinois’s Sneaky-Big Win
It’s hard to win conference games on the road. It’s especially hard to win them by 23. And while Minnesota will probably miss even the NIT, it was another strong result from the Fighting Illini, who after getting Kofi Cockburn back and shaking off the Kofi Cockburn rust have beaten Kansas State, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Iowa, Mizzou, and Minnesota by an average of 17.5 points. Now, yes, only one of those teams will probably make the NCAA Tournament, and only one or two of those teams will probably make the NIT. Beating those teams isn’t impressive. Beating them by a dozen and a half points apiece, though? That’s something.
The rough early season kind of made us forget about Illinois as a national player. Even yesterday, when discussing Purdue’s inability to twist the knife, I said the Big Ten lacks a contender for a one-seed. I may have erred in neglecting to mention Brad Underwood’s team (furthering this, Minnesota might actually be decent—they played a laughable nonconference schedule, so it’s hard to know, but they’ve only lost to Michigan State and Illinois, which is a solid pair).
Kentucky: Not Young, Still Foolish
The SEC regular season race is a fascinating little entity, and Kentucky’s still among the favorites, even after last night’s loss. But man, watching those last thirty seconds…
It’s fascinating how much John Calipari’s approach has…not worked. He’s consistently been a very successful coach, of course, with three really good Memphis teams, one great Memphis team, a national championship at Kentucky, five more really good teams at Kentucky, and another great team at Kentucky, but it’s been three years since that last really good team, the results in between have been bad, and at Kentucky, isn’t really good an allowable expectation? If Kansas can do it so consistently, why can’t Kentucky? Kansas’s worst team in the KenPom era got a three-seed. Kentucky didn’t get an NIT invite last year.
Again, this year’s Kentucky team might be really good. They are comparable in quality to UCLA, and were a favorite team of mine playing UCLA, I would not expect to have a chance. But Kentucky doesn’t feel as scary, and in college basketball, perception goes a long way, through mechanisms such as: If your program is thought lowly of, recruiting is more difficult. Kentucky might not have a problem with its program, but if everyone thinks it does, that could become reality.
The oddity of Kentucky’s foolishness (high turnover rate, two rough last-minute losses now, best win over underwhelming UNC on short notice) is that this isn’t a young team coming into its own. Kentucky’s starting four upperclassmen. Only TyTy Washington is getting tons of minutes as a freshman, and he’s far from the problem, with an excellent assist-to-turnover ratio even if last night featured him missing a lot of baskets. This isn’t, in other words, a team of that Calipari mold. And yet it still looks haphazard at times. Am I putting too much stock on two instances in which I’ve seen it myself? Probably. But it’s jumping out.
A positive spin, for Big Blue Nation, is that Calipari’s coached freshmen into great teams over the time he has to coach a group of some veterans into a great team. The Wildcats should only be underdogs three or four more times this regular season (if that). They’ll get tested, but nobody on the schedule is loaded enough to obviously obliterate them. With the right draw, Kentucky could be a favorite to make the Final Four. I’m often wrong, but I believe in Kentucky. Man, though. Are they ever interesting.
Michigan Did the Bad Again
Michigan is now 7-6 overall, with losses to Minnesota at home, UCF and Rutgers on the road, and three teams with NCAA Tournament expectations in non-embarrassing locales. Their best win is a mild drubbing of San Diego State. Teams are moving the ball against them at will. They are coughing up the ball like fiends.
Michigan was, to be fair, missing roughly a fifth of its rotation last night, going by minutes. But it wasn’t like the game was that close. They trailed by nine at the half. They trailed by thirteen with ten to go. Rutgers is really bad. Sorry, but Rutgers is really, really bad. Rutgers is between Cal and South Carolina in KenPom, which is a good proxy for what Vegas thinks. Rutgers is worse than Miami and Chattanooga, and is a lot worse than Fresno State. This isn’t the Rutgers of the last two years. This is the Rutgers of the twenty years before that. This is the Rutgers that briefly found itself in the American.
The danger for Michigan is that even if they’re fine—and they might well be fine—the Big Ten is punishing enough and they picked up enough losses in nonconference play that they might need an historic admission in terms of overall win-loss. Currently, the worst record to ever garner an NCAA Tournament at-large bid is 16-14 (Villanova, 1991). Right now, if you assume Michigan will win every game it’s expected to win and lose every game it’s expected to lose, it’ll enter the Big Ten Tournament…13-17. Michigan needs to steal three. Or more. And this way of looking at it has them beating Michigan State on Saturday, so that’s not a theft if it happens. Michigan really might not make the tournament. Might not even make the NIT.
The Muss Bus Is Crashing
Arkansas isn’t in as much danger of missing the NIT as Michigan is (because of the .500 thing), but Eric Musselman missing the NCAA Tournament, which perhaps felt unreasonably unthinkable a few months ago, is now a strong possibility. Again, this probably shouldn’t be that surprising, but Musselman’s brand makes it feel surprising. The Razorbacks are in trouble, and losing to Vanderbilt did them no favors. Lose at Texas A&M this weekend and at LSU next weekend and there isn’t really a good win on the schedule until February. Racking up medium wins isn’t nothing, but Arkansas is in some serious trouble.
***
Alright, I think that’s everything all that big from last night. Rough loss for Florida State, but it was on the road. Good win for Virginia, but winning at Clemson shouldn’t count as good for that program. Virginia Tech had a terrible loss, but nobody was paying attention to them anyway. On to tonight:
Is Iowa State for Real?
Obviously, had the Cyclones beaten Baylor on New Year’s Day, this question would have been answered. They did not beat Baylor, however, and the possibility of opening Big 12 play 0-6 is all too real, with the only home game between this one and TCU coming against Texas. Whoop up on the Red Raiders, who are missing Terrence Shannon, and Ames can breathe a little easier about its men’s basketball team’s legitimacy. Lose, and there’s probably some begrudging accepting to be done. It’s early in the year, but this is big, big game, and one a tournament team—which Iowa State unexpectedly aspires to be—should win.
Game’s at 8:00 PM CST on ESPNU.
Can Florida Enter the Fray?
This is our best bet today, so head over there for our best answer to this question, but to elaborate on the question…
Florida has beaten Florida State (H), Ohio State (N), and…well, no one else. Florida has lost to Texas Southern (H), Maryland (N), Oklahoma (A), and did we mention that the Texas Southern loss was by fifteen?
If you took that Texas Southern result out of the equation, the Gators would be up there with Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Kentucky, and Tennessee in the SEC discussion. Instead, they’re kind of in a no-man’s land, and while on the one hand, it was just one game, there are also only about thirty games in a season. Each is significant. Especially when it’s significant.
Mike White’s team hosts Alabama tonight having not played since before Christmas. There’s a script where they come out rusty, get obliterated, and limp their way to a terrible start to conference play that lands them on the bubble. There’s another script, though, where they figure out a way to beat the Tide and guarantee themselves at least one win from this Alabama/Auburn/LSU stretch. It sounds like Myreon Jones will be returning. Game’s at 6:00 CST on ESPN2. See you there.
