I know, I know, you can’t wait. You want to hear our thoughts on Houston losing a conference road game. We have to talk about Rob Manfred first, though. He spoke today, you know.
The Lockout Will End When It Ends…Right?
My impression with the lockout at this point is that it really could end rather soon and it could also drag on for a long, long time. A contributing impression within that is that we won’t receive much warning before it ends. We won’t see the progress until it’s finally close enough that it snaps into place, like magnets approaching one another.
I might be wrong on this. This is all guessing. But the root of the question for fans is, “When will this end?” and the root of that answer really does seem to be, “We have no idea.” And we likely won’t.
Anyway, Rob Manfred didn’t say anything too noteworthy today besides trying out the “baseball teams aren’t a great asset” line again, saying historically the stock market’s been a better investment. This might be true since 1930. I don’t really know. But it isn’t true in recent history. Franchise values are skyrocketing. Owners get a lot, lot, lot of money. And that’s a good thing! It’s good that baseball’s such a profitable enterprise! Just shoot it to us straight, though, Rob. Stop being such a conniving punk.
The Fall of Houston
Nothing to see here. Really. Houston lost a road game to an NIT-quality team. That is a routine occurrence, even for teams that could win the national championship. The Cougars stay there in our categorical thoughts with Purdue and Kansas and Baylor. Possibilities. Could they do it? Sure. Will they? At this point, it doesn’t look like it. Just like it didn’t before tip last night.
There’s some bubble talk to go with this, and that’s that for as good as this win is, SMU still has quite a lot to do. We do predictive bracketology, rather than where-they-stand bracketology, so we’ll be lower on them than the market, but I think everyone but homers would agree that SMU could end up on the right side of the bubble and also could end up on the wrong side (nothing against homers, that helps make this fun). Gotta dodge bad losses, even if this maybe gives them enough good wins (one or two, they have one or two good wins).
Loyola, Rutgers, Missouri State, Florida State
Other notes for today:
- Loyola lost at Bradley last night, which isn’t a bad loss but does put the Ramblers in some danger, for two reasons. First, if they’re in a position where they need an at-large bid, that will mean they’ve lost in the conference tournament, and if they lose in the conference tournament, that’ll be another loss, possibly a pretty bad one. The cushion for mid-majors projected to receive at-large bids is always smaller than it appears, for this reason. Second, it would’ve been some good filler on the résumé. Another Q2 win. NET’s high on Bradley, which helps, but it’s still disappointing for Loyola. No getting around that.
- Rutgers beat Ohio State at home a few days after beating Michigan State at home. There are NIT bid questions about them, and those are fair. They have a weird résumé. Deserving of questioning. On the one side, Rutgers has four Q1 wins and two Q2 wins. On the other, Rutgers has three Q3/Q4 losses. Back on the first, their worst loss, at home to Lafayette, came in a game in which Geo Baker got hurt, and he missed a good chunk of the next game as well, on the road against UMass. I don’t really know how the NIT committee weights recency or proximity to New York City or power conference membership. Maybe it matters. Maybe it doesn’t. I’ll try to look into it if these questions are still relevant in a couple weeks.
- Missouri State beat Drake on the road, that’s another solid win for the Bears, who do have four Q3 losses (and one down in Q4). They might be back above the projected NIT cut line. They’re certainly in the picture.
- Florida State keeps sinking, dropping their sixth straight, and they’re a big, “What happened?” team. So surprising to see them struggle like this, which then makes it striking how consistently good they’ve been in recent years after many seasons of not being much of a factor.
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Tonight’s big ones:
- Purdue goes to Michigan, looking to stay hot and keep making moves towards the realm of Kentucky and Arizona, two teams we think probably could win a national championship but might not be realistic to expect to do it. Defense remains Purdue’s issue, but it was better on Tuesday. Quick turnaround, just played Michigan on Saturday, tricky game for the Boilers.
- Arizona goes to Washington State, who might be coming into their own. The Cougars are riding a five-game win streak, and while little of it’s been against impressive competition, they’re back to grading out, by the numbers, as a team on par with USC and Iowa State and teams of that nature. Bad résumé, solid team, playing at home that’s an interesting recipe.
- Duke plays at Clemson, looking to bounce back from Monday night like a scrawny rich kid who just got popped and is now trying to reestablish himself as a possible homecoming date for the pretty girl when he may not have been in the running to begin with. Clemson, like so many in the ACC, is skidding.
Personally, the viewing schedule probably goes Iowa @ Maryland (7:00 PM EST, ESPN2), Arizona @ Wazzu (9:00 PM EST, FS1), BYU @ Loyola Marymount (11:00 PM EST, FS1). Some personal preference in there, though.
