Joe’s Notes: Kershaw and an Imperfect Game, College Baseball Weekend Preview

The decision to pull Kershaw is easy to be upset about. It would have been a lot cooler if he stayed in. It would have been a lot more fun if he stayed in. It would have been special if he stayed in.

At the end of the day, it should be his decision, probably, and maybe it was, but there are also stakeholders out there dependent upon him maintaining his health. Dave Roberts particularly needs a healthy Clayton Kershaw if he’s going to keep his job, and while moments like the ones we missed (even just the attempt would’ve been neat) are what make sports special, the wins the Dodgers might have missed had they injured Kershaw or worn him down are what make individuals in the Dodgers’ organization their money.

There’s been a similar conversation lately surrounding load management in the NBA, and while some of the problems there are rather clear—a lot boils down to the playoffs being too big—the solution is still hard: How do you maintain playoff revenue while making the regular season more competitive?

What we’ve run into in both sports, to an extent, is the optimization of the game under its current rules leading decisionmakers away from those pieces of sport that stoke our evolutionary desire and admiration for glory. The best way to win games and thereby make money is to mix in a healthy amount of rest, and who can argue with wins and money, especially in tandem? Might these moves cost sports money in the long run, by making them less entertaining? Yes, but that cost isn’t part of the equation in the short-term for individuals. I can’t really begrudge Clayton Kershaw not pulling Dave Roberts aside and saying, “I am staying in this game, and if you take me out I’ll fight you in this dugout,” but I wish he’d done that. I wish he’d said that. I wish he’d done what he could to go for glory.

Players still do go for glory, of course, and the winning piece of this does tie back to Kershaw’s probable belief that leaving the game could lead the Dodgers to another World Series title. But man…it isn’t fun. It isn’t inspiring. It’s calculated, and it’s cold, and those things are great in their own way but when they lead away from the glory, it’s probably time to change the rules in some way to incentivize greatness. I have no idea how to do this with the perfect game thing. Absolutely no idea. An individual bounty on such things seems so contrary to the spirit of baseball’s regular season, and reducing roster sizes or limiting the number of pitchers a team could use over a season (which would force pitchers to alter how they throw so they could eat more innings, which would also probably create more offense and lead to shorter at-bats) would cut out opportunities for dozens of players, if not more. The days of chasing perfect games might be done for now. That’s sad.

Around the Majors

Kershaw’s performance led the Dodgers to a 7-0 win in Minnesota, gave them a two-game series sweep and sent them back home to host the Reds this weekend with a 3-2 record. What had been a rough weekend in Colorado has given way to solidity, and even some excitement back in Los Angeles. Things change fast in April. The Twins are off today before starting a four-game set in Boston tomorrow, culminating in the Patriot Day game at Fenway on Monday.

A fan of Steven Kwan? Maybe you’ll also like Owen Miller. The Guardians’ rookie first baseman had a big two days in Cincinnati, clubbing two solo home runs yesterday after striking two doubles on Tuesday. Expectations are lower for him than for Kwan, but expectations aren’t crazy-high for either, and here they are doing things. The Guardians took the series and now head home to host the Giants this weekend. Four straight wins for Cleveland, who’s averaged eleven runs per game over the stretch.

The Royals, Cleveland’s victim on Sunday and Monday, only got to play one game in St. Louis, with yesterday’s canceled. It was a 6-5 loss, but Salvador Perez went deep twice, and remember: This guy’s only 31. The Royals host the Tigers for four games beginning tonight. The Cardinals start a four-game set in Milwaukee.

Milwaukee bounced back after the series loss to the Cubs, taking two of three on the road in Baltimore. Their bullpen flexed its muscle in the set, tossing eleven innings and allowing just two runs, but they struggled a bit with walks, as Devin Williams issued three over an inning and a third and Josh Hader walked as many batters as he struck out in the series. Both guys have shown plenty of nastiness already this year, but if there actually end up being control issues, the whole Brewers team will be on thin ice. The Orioles host the Yankees this weekend.

The Yankees have one more game to play against the Blue Jays, but what a series that’s been. Toronto leads two games to one, having won last night’s on the back of three home runs and a double by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the 23-year-old phenom who may make baseball the national sport of Canada before the decade’s done. It had been a bit of a slow start from the guy, who entered the game slashing just .263/.300/.421 and was sitting at a 32-home run pace. His 108-home run pace is clearly much more realistic. Blue Jays fly back home tonight to host the A’s.

The A’s are looking to take a four-game series in Tampa Bay as this is written, and Paul Blackburn’s outing yesterday is a big part of the reason why. Over five innings, the 28-year-old roster-filler with a 5.54 career ERA struck out seven Rays, walked just one, and allowed no runs on three hits. Is it fair to put more hope in a guy to break out if he’s on the A’s, who can still probably be considered advanced in the evaluation game? The Rays play the White Sox in Chicago starting tomorrow.

In Chicago at the moment, the White Sox are looking to close out a sweep of the Mariners after Luis Robert’s home runs these last two days (and two stolen bases on Tuesday) led the team to a pair of close victories. Strong start from the defending AL Central champions. Seattle hosts the Astros this weekend.

It was a nailbiter of a series for those Astros over in Phoenix, where they split a pair of low-scoring, one-run games. Last night’s was decided when a Ketel Marte sacrifice fly (which would have won the game anyway) hit off Chas McCormick’s glove in left in the tenth. Merrill Kelly was strong over five and a third for the D-Backs, striking out six and walking just two. Arizona will visit the Mets this weekend as they start a week on the East Coast.

The Mets are hanging in there, taking two of three in Philadelphia to head home with a 5-2 record, best in the division. Brandon Nimmo led the charge, homering twice in the set. The Phillies start four games in Miami this evening.

Down in Miami, that Starling Marte trade from last summer might be paying off for the Marlins. Jesús Luzardo was ridiculous in Anaheim on Monday, striking out two-thirds of the 18 batters who came to the plate. He allowed a run on one walk and two hits, but his FIP is negative, which over five innings is pretty darn good. The Angels visit the Rangers this weekend.

The Rangers scuffled in Colorado, losing both halves of a two-game series. Connor Joe homered, doubled, and scored four times for the home team, who’s currently tied with the White Sox for the best record in baseball. They’ll host the Cubs beginning tonight.

It wasn’t a bad two games in Pittsburgh for those Cubs, though they did only split the pair. Seiya Suzuki continued his hot start, homering twice on Tuesday. The Pirates host the Nationals tonight and through Sunday.

Those Nationals had an up-and-down series in Atlanta, winning 11-2 on Monday before dropping Tuesday’s by a score of 16 to 4. In the end, they won the series, and Maikel Franco drove in seven runs on eight hits, three of which went for extra bases. Atlanta now visits San Diego.

What’s the latest with the Padres? Blake Snell is going to the IL with a groin injury, and Fernando Tatís Jr. is still about three weeks away from swinging a bat, if expectations there prove correct. The Pads lost two of three up in San Francisco, where Brandon Belt went 5-for-10 on the series and homered on Tuesday.

Finally, Kike Hernández led the way for the Red Sox in a series win in Detroit, doubling three times and homering once in Boston’s two wins.

Around College Ball

With Easter on Sunday, college baseball’s weekend is kicking off tonight. Here are the five biggest series:

Stanford @ UCLA

Out in the Pac-12, Stanford’s working on its case to host a regional while UCLA looks to swing out in front in the conference title race. Games tonight (Pac-12 Networks) and tomorrow (ESPN2) at 10:00 PM EDT, Saturday’s game (P12N) at 7:00 PM EDT.

Miami @ Virginia Tech

Across the country in the ACC, Miami’s looking to build on last weekend’s dominance of Virginia as they head up to Blacksburg, where they’ll meet a Virginia Tech squad some have on the bubble. That’ll start tonight and tomorrow at 7:00 PM EDT on ACCNX and finish Saturday at 2:00 PM EDT, with the broadcast situation for Saturday unclear.

Louisville @ Florida State

In the Atlantic Division, Louisville’s trying to hold onto their lead while Florida State’s looking to get back to or above .500. Games tonight and tomorrow at 7:00 PM EDT, Saturday at 1:00 PM EDT. All on ACCNX.

LSU @ Arkansas

Over in the SEC, we’ve got a top-of-the-West-Division clash in Fayetteville. Games tonight (7:30 PM EDT, SEC Network+), tomorrow (7:00 PM EDT, SECN), and Saturday (3:00 PM EDT, SECN+).

Oklahoma State @ West Virginia

Finally, the Mountaineers try to maintain an improbable Big 12 lead with conference favorite Oklahoma State coming to town. This one has an Easter game, so it’ll start tomorrow at 6:30 PM EDT, continue Saturday at 4:00 PM EDT, and wrap up Sunday at 1:00 PM EDT. All games on ESPN+.

Cubs in Colorado

The Cubs, as mentioned, start a series with the Rockies tonight, and there are two main storylines to follow.

The first is how many games the Cubs can win. The most likely number is two, but taking a four-game set would be big for a team trying to make a case to its front office that it’s ready to compete in one of baseball’s softer divisions. With the Cardinals and Brewers playing each other, a series win would also almost definitely leave the Cubs in either first or second coming out of their first nine games, which is a small thing but better than the alternative. Winning just one wouldn’t be disastrous, but it’d be a bit of a gutshot in a season where the Cubs probably need to steer clear of gutshots through June if they really want to make something of it.

The second is the reunion with Kris Bryant. It isn’t Bryant coming back to Wrigley again—that isn’t on the schedule until September—but it’ll be his first time playing the Cubs in a Rockies uniform, and that’s going to be something that’s paid attention to. He’s hitting the ball well so far, with a 139 wRC+ through five games, and the Rockies have been winning, starting the year 4-1. Could be fun, could be a little bit heartbreaking.

Justin Steele starts opposite Kyle Freeland tonight, and the Cubs hope each does more of what they did in their season debut. For Freeland, that was a five-run outing against the Dodgers on Friday, though he did strike out six of twenty batters and walk just two while allowing little strong contact. For Steele, that was the dominance of the Brewers on Saturday. Temperatures should be cold these next three nights, but Sunday’s looking like a beautiful day.

Tough one yesterday, of course, with Kyle Hendricks looking bad and the offense failing to break through (a lot of which can be credited to some nice defense by the Pirates). Seiya Suzuki had a rough play on that ball in the corner, but it was a wide enough game where one thing probably didn’t make the difference. Another good day at the plate from him, and Willson Contreras hit one a mile, which was fun. Michael Rucker also did a great job out of the bullpen, keeping a chance alive for the Cubs while eating innings. Ke’Bryan Hayes had a strong day for the Pirates, helping justify an extension I at least found a bit surprising, given his injury history and the Pirates’ reticence to spend.

In deeper Cubs news, Manuel Rodríguez is going on the IL here in Des Moines, which stretches the minor league depth a little thin. To be fair, though, it’ll look deeper when the rosters contract back down to 26 men.

Another Cyclone Transfer Target

Up in Ames, Chris Williams reports that Ohio forward Ben Vander Plas will visit Iowa State. Vander Plas is comparable to Grant Basile in terms of quality, but he has one fewer year of eligibility and he spent more time at the four this year for the Bobcats while Basile was more often playing the five at Wright State. He’s actually listed as a little larger than Basile, and he did spend some time at the five, so it’s not like this is a dealbreaker, but while Basile was a high-usage guy getting it done inside, Vander Plas was an every-minute kind of dude for an Ohio offense that ran through him a lot in 2020 and less so in ’21 and ’22 (which benefited his efficiency). He’s a better three-point shooter than Basile, but he’s still not great from three. He does grade out better defensively, and he dropped 17 on Virginia in that 2021 first round upset.

This isn’t to compare Vander Plas and Basile as an either-or situation, and it might not be Iowa State’s choice to make. Vander Plas is, per Jeff Goodman, reportedly looking at both Virginia and Virginia Tech in addition to a trio of Big Ten schools. Still, he’s making a visit to Ames, and he’d be one of Iowa State’s best players, and a massive upgrade, like Basile would be, over Robert Jones and/or Tre King.

***

Aside from the Cubs (8:40 PM EDT, Regional TV), there’s good baseball today between the Cardinals and Brewers (5:14 PM EDT, Regional TV), Atlanta and San Diego (8:10 PM EDT, ESPN+, Charlie Morton facing Joe Musgrove), the Blue Jays and Yankees (7:05 PM EDT, Regional TV, Kevin Gausman vs. Luis Severino), and those four college games listed above. If I were to script a viewing schedule for someone with my exact sporting interests, I’d probably tune into this White Sox/Mariners game when I’m done with work (Regional TV, started at 2:10 PM EDT) and then go Brewers/Cardinals, Miami/Virginia Tech, Cubs/Rockies, Stanford/UCLA, with Miami/VT on the muted screen.

The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
Posts created 3299

One thought on “Joe’s Notes: Kershaw and an Imperfect Game, College Baseball Weekend Preview

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Related Posts

Begin typing your search term above and press enter to search. Press ESC to cancel.