Games are again underway, and Loyola/Ohio State is rather impactful (Loyola’s 23rd in KenPom, Ohio State’s 31st, Villanova—their 2-seed—is only 12th, making that game Sunday one of the obviously best on the slate right now) while Jacksonville State/Auburn is probably not going to change things, but then again…
Down Goes Kentucky
…we saw the 15/2 upset happen yesterday, and there was less reason to believe in it going in than there was for Jacksonville State, who Auburn is currently wiping up. These things can happen! But you all know that.
There are three things to talk about with Kentucky losing. The first is how it happened. The second is what it means for the tournament. The third is what it means for Kentucky.
Saint Peter’s shot 53% on threes, and looking at their three-point percentage on the year and Kentucky’s defensive three-point percentage, you’d expect the Peacocks to have only shot about 33%. Probably worse, given the scheduling disparity. With Saint Peter’s attempting 17 threes, they basically got nine or twelve more points than one would think they’d get from beyond the arc. Inside it too, though, they made things happen. They shot 50% on twos, and the expectation would have been about 46%, meaning they picked up four more points inside. On the other end, they held Kentucky to 27% shooting on threes, caught a couple points from a slightly below-average (by Kentucky’s standards) Wildcat free throw performance, and actually held UK below its season-average offensive rebounding rate.
In other words, it was a pretty complete victory for Saint Peter’s. The three-point shooting was striking, but it was far from a one-dimensional performance. They played, in a lot of aspects of the game, far beyond themselves, and Kentucky had a bad game.
For the tournament, this shakes things up. Kentucky was right there with Baylor in KenPom entering the night, and their loss really clears out the Elite Eight path for three teams between 14th and 20th in KenPom: Purdue, Texas, and Virginia Tech. Murray State, meanwhile, unexpectedly gets to play Saint Peter’s in the second round, and while nobody “gets” to play Saint Peter’s anymore…it’s still probably going to be the most advantageous matchup on the weekend slate.
For Kentucky…it’s rough. One year after 9-16 overall, two years after finishing just 28th in KenPom, a full seven years since their last Final Four, Kentucky is out of the tournament after just one day. But for as frustrating as the performance was, it would be foolish to do much about it. Kentucky will still probably finish in the KenPom top ten, the fifth time in the last eight years that they’ve done that, which is among the best in that category in all of college basketball. Meanwhile, the Cats have successfully pivoted away from being purely a one-and-done program, and it seems to be working. A 14-4 record in this year’s SEC is good. This was a good team who had their worst game at the worst time. The program’s not dynastic, but it’s in better shape than probably only Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas, and Arizona, and one of those four is still in the NCAA crosshairs for sanctions.
Speaking of Kansas, it was mentioned last night as the clock ticked down that the win over Texas Southern was the Jayhawks’ fifteenth straight win in a first round game, a streak that began the year after KU dropped its second straight first round stunner. At the time, Bill Self was just three years into the job, and while he’d made the Elite Eight his first year and was in what’s now known to be the top eleven of KenPom in both of the first-round-loss years, there was a whole lot of grumbling. They stuck it out, and I don’t think anyone would argue that was a bad call. Kentucky fans are justifiably distraught, but Calipari is not a problem for that program.
The Other Games
We talked about the early slate in yesterday’s notes, but the later ones were where the fun was at.
Arkansas kept up with Vermont in the offensive efficiency department, taking down the best low-major in the game. The Razorbacks now get a New Mexico State team for whom Teddy Allen is a folk hero in waiting after the West Virginia and Nebraska transfer shredded the vaunted UConn defense, going a perfect 13-of-13 at the line and getting plenty of three-point help from his teammates despite a team-wide poor performance inside the arc.
In the UCLA pod, Saint Mary’s punished Indiana, scoring at will while the Hoosiers looked thoroughly impotent. Good reminder of the danger of trusting a team’s recent trend once the tournament actually begins, and a reminder of the necessity for Mike Woodson to figure out the offensive side of the sport as it pertains to this team next year. Akron, for its part, kept things slower than slow against UCLA, but just couldn’t quite make enough shots to launch another John Groce MAC-based Cinderella run.
We mentioned Murray State, and they held off a feisty shorthanded San Francisco team despite nearly coughing the game away at the end of regulation. The Racers lost Carter Collins, a senior starter, and if he doesn’t play tomorrow, that’s going to hurt against Saint Peter’s.
Finally, in the Kansas pod, Creighton pulled off a wild comeback against San Diego State, rallying back from as many as fourteen down in the first half and nine points down with three minutes to play to reach the second round. The Mountain West, after just the First Four and one day of the first round, is done.
Today
Texas/Virginia Tech is the best game of the day, but there’s plenty of intrigue elsewhere as well, ranging from the Iowa State/LSU street fight (which we’ll talk about in a minute) to Colgate’s attempt to beat Wisconsin by shooting only three-point shots.
With Texas and Virginia Tech, the winner is going to be in a powerful position, likely facing a flawed Purdue team in the second round with Murray State, banged-up Baylor, and not-quite-clicking UCLA the other contenders in their region (or the Gaels, of course—the Gaels are out there).
What Iowa State Needs Against LSU
The Iowa State/LSU game is an odd one, with LSU Will Wade-less for the first time. Tari Eason’s the guy Iowa State needs to figure out, but risks abound. LSU, like Iowa State, is a turnover-prone team on both ends. LSU, like Iowa State, has elite perimeter defense but struggles to stop scoring inside. LSU, unlike Iowa State, is great at generating second chances, though they also struggle on the defensive glass. We know there are going to be sloppy moments. Iowa State’s two ways to win are emerging above the slop or finding its groove for enough stretches on offense. Stopping LSU’s tempo’s also going to be important.
I wonder if there’s an angle here where you can rattle LSU, whether that’s something Wade’s presence would make less likely. I haven’t watched the Tigers a ton, but at the very least, it might be a possibility. Get Jaden Walker out there causing a little chaos and see where things go? Wonder if they’ll try him against the three-inches-taller Eason. Don’t know how his wingspan compares to that of Kalscheur. Don’t love being a four-guard team against an opponent with a long, athletic power forward. Especially not as a team that’s defense-first.
Where the Cy-Hawk Rivalry Stands
On the more emotional side:
With Iowa losing, there’s a good chance Iowa State and Iowa will both be out of the NCAA Tournament in the first round. With Iowa losing, there’s an opportunity if Iowa State can go on a little run here. Wisconsin has won a lot of close games this year. Auburn has laid plenty a dud. The Cyclones are in an advantageous position.
For the last few years, Iowa’s held the crown in both football and men’s basketball. It doesn’t look like ISU’s going to grab the football throne back this fall (even with a win, it would likely feel more like a one-off victory than a demonstration of superiority), so getting the upper hand in men’s hoops feels important in the power struggle. The win this fall helped. Making the Sweet Sixteen would also help. It would be debatable—Iowa’s had some good teams and great players these last few years—but ISU could benefit from the Hawkeyes’ hard luck in March.
Kris Bryant to the Rockies
I think this is the only big recent signing since we last talked, and, well, there it is. Bryant, Rizzo, Báez, and Schwarber are all not returning to Chicago. It never seemed all that likely for any of them, but it’s still a sad day, both nostalgically and in the hypotheticals. There’s a growing narrative that of the four, only Schwarber’s contract status was poorly handled by the Cubs’ front office, and from everything we know, that’s correct. Cutting Schwarber was a cheap, idiotic move. The contracts offered to the other three were reasonable. Scott Boras was a poor choice of agent for Kris Bryant.
There’s the aspect, though, still, where these guys should have developed better in Chicago. Especially Bryant, Rizzo, and Schwarber. It might be too late for Bryant to return to MVP form, and injuries have played a role there, but all three of those guys should have been better with the Cubs than they were, and whiffing on all three, as we’ve said before, points to a major organizational flaw that we can only hope is being corrected. You have to develop your major leaguers. You have to.
Davante Adams to the Raiders??
Really surprising here—figured they’d call Adams’s bluff and deal with the long term after this year. It’s a scary situation for Packers fans to see Aaron Rodgers’ one phenomenal weapon off the roster, and it’s scary to see the possible (probable?) outcome where the saved money is invested not in a comparable weapon, but into more role players. Ideally, the extra draft picks and the saved money turn into something that can help the Packers immediately, but it seems more likely that this is a move that smooths the curve a little, making the 2023 and 2024 and 2025 Packers better but the 2022 Packers a little worse. That’s a very uncertain read, though, from a guy who doesn’t follow the NFL too closely.
Longshots All Over the Place
Added more futures for college basketball today, mostly on the extreme longshot end. IndyCar races again this weekend, in addition to NASCAR, so we should have more longshots on Sunday, too. We’ll be wagering on Formula 1, but I’m not sure that will lend itself to longshots, based on the duopolistic nature of that sport right now. More to come, though. Tomorrow or Sunday.
***
We intend to do notes through the weekend, so only doing the viewing schedule for the rest of the day. If you’re looking for one game in each of the next three time slots, these are your three:
- Texas vs. Virginia Tech (4:30 PM EDT, TBS)
- LSU vs. Iowa State (7:20 PM EDT, TBS)
- Houston vs. UAB (9:20 PM EDT, TNT) There are games that should be better during this time slot, but this one’s probably a lot more impactful, with Houston in the KenPom top five and Arizona vulnerable next weekend.
Really, though, we’ll be channel-flipping. As we are right now.
