There’s much that can be said, but Georgia illustrated most of it on the field. They were the nation’s best team. TCU was not. We knew this, coming in, but the semifinals had given us reason to be intrigued, and TCU just had that magic, right? Magic does this sometimes. Sometimes, it shows that it’s actually quite in accord with the laws of nature.
As far as a referendum on TCU as a program, there’s nothing with last night’s game that undoes what Sonny Dykes and his team did this season. The Horned Frogs are among the Big 12’s best now, and coming into the year, they were at the tail end of that big, nine-team pack above Kansas (sure, Kansas has made it a ten-team pack, but we’re talking about how far TCU has come). That’s a giant leap, and with conference realignment creating a power vacuum in the league sometime soon, it bodes swimmingly for the Horned Frog future. Teams who make national championships tend to see recruiting spikes coming off those campaigns. TCU plays in a talent-rich area. I don’t think you have to go so far as to call TCU the future power of the state of Texas to acknowledge that the future should be really bright for this program again. Once Texas is gone, in 2024 or 2025 or 2026, would you take anyone in that league over them, knowing what we know now?
For Georgia, Alabama is still a long-term challenge, but what Kirby Smart has done is exceedingly rare. There isn’t a better job in the country than Georgia, accounting for financial resources, booster support, recruiting location, institutional ability to avoid chaos, etc. Still, it’s rare to see someone take a good job and do it spectacularly well. Kirby Smart is no Nick Saban. But he’s making a lot of a great situation, and that produces incredible results.
I bring up Saban and Alabama because for those who’ve watched any sports dynasty preemptively crowned, the next step is fairly obvious: Alabama bounces back. That’s what the narrative says will happen, anyway. The Tide are recruiting as well as ever, each of the Tide’s losses this year came dramatically and late, the program had a down season and the team was still clearly among the nation’s four best, with an argument they were its second-best. Alabama remains the team to beat, but Georgia—credit to Kirby Smart—is right behind them.
From there? Ohio State and LSU strike me as the only two obvious imminent national championship threats. Michigan’s talent is such that their ceiling is lower than those other four, and they don’t do consistent excellence the way Georgia or Alabama does it (neither does Ohio State, but that ceiling is sky high). For the Buckeyes, questions persist about whether Ryan Day’s the guy, but his banged-up corps hung with Georgia, and that means a lot. For LSU, it’s a matter of time: Does the excellence come before something blows up? That’s the key question. Because Brian Kelly doesn’t need to be a great recruiter to recruit well at LSU, and Brian Kelly’s big problem has always been acquiring the necessary talent.
I’m low on Clemson as a national power, though their path looks to remain easy unless Florida State really hits the gas this calendar year. We’re going on four years now of steady decline for the Tigers, and for the last three, they’ve been decidedly not on a plane with even each year’s second-best team. Playing basketball schools can be awfully convenient.
USC? Lincoln Riley wins tons of games, and the transfer portal is his best friend, so perhaps it’s a matter of time. Ironically, though, the upcoming move to the Big Ten probably hurts USC’s path, putting them up against stiffer competition which *could* do some iron-sharpening-iron but could also eliminate the Trojans’ margin for error. There’s also the question of how all that travel and all those cold-weather games for a fast-paced team will go.
From there, you get into teams who could believably get there but are too far away to really be in the conversation. Maybe one comes out of nowhere next year—Florida State’s set to be the trendy option for that—but even Tennessee just appears too far behind the pace. Oklahoma, Texas, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee, Florida State, TCU, Baylor…South Carolina? You can make a lot of arguments, but we’re deep into the barrel at this point.
For this week, college football belongs to the Dawgs. For 2023? It’s theirs and Alabama’s to fight over.
Scott Boras Backs Down
We’ll see what happens with the Twins and Carlos Correa, but presumably they know enough about him medically already, having employed him for the 2022 season, to not be surprised by what they find in his physical. So, we’re pretty sure Carlos Correa remains a Twin in the end, after a weird, wild, wacky saga.
It’s a pretty good deal for the Twins, provided their ownership is content to spend on top of it if it goes sour. They’re getting a projected 5-fWAR player for $33M a year, and if he ages normally (big question, yes) they seem to have gotten a discount, since he’s only 28? Plus, there’s reportedly that vesting option in there.
More or less, the risk for the Twins is that Carlos Correa is so damaged physically that he cannot play more than half a season in a year. There’s the risk this bottoms out. But while it’s a higher risk than it is for most players, it does exist with everyone. Carlos Correa is not the only man on earth capable of suffering injury. With the luxury tax nowhere on the radar, the Twins don’t have any cap beyond their own budget, so if they’re willing to take the risk with the guy, good for them. Hopefully he and Byron Buxton can each be healthy enough. They don’t need to play 162 games a year to contribute. They just need to be healthy enough.
Iowa State vs. Texas Tech
It will never be comfortable in the future we know to play Texas Tech, and I’m as nervous as anyone about the Cyclones’ game tonight, but let’s look at the Red Raiders for a moment: They’re 0-3, tied for last in the Big 12, popping up in our NIT Bracketology (that’s live again, by the way—here’s the NCAA Tournament Bracketology, where the Cyclones are aimed at a 5-seed??), and they’re projected to be underdogs in three of their next four games, with the only exception a visit from Baylor. Texas Tech is down bad, and this is exactly where we were afraid the Cyclones would be, which makes where the Cyclones are a gigantic relief. Iowa State needs to keep it up—every game is losable, this team is far from safely in the tournament—but they’ve done a ton already. They’ve done so much already. Hopefully, tonight is more of the same.
**
Viewing schedule for tonight, second screen rotation in italics:
College Basketball (what has my attention)
- 7:00 PM EST: Oklahoma State @ Kansas State (ESPNU)
- 8:00 PM EST: Texas Tech @ Iowa State (ESPN+)
- 9:00 PM EST: North Carolina @ Virginia (ESPN)
- 11:00 PM EST: Nevada @ San Diego State (CBSSN)
NBA (best game)
- 9:00 PM EST: Cleveland @ Utah (League Pass)
NHL (best game)
- 7:00 PM EST: Minnesota @ NY Rangers (ESPN+)
