It isn’t *too* early to talk about the bubble. It’s never too early, and if your team is anywhere in the range of the NIT, we would strongly suggest you regularly check in with our NIT Bracketology, perhaps even multiple times a day. You never know when we might change it. And you know what would help your bubble understanding even more? Buying the products any advertisements on our NIT Bracketology suggest you buy. Those are there to help your college basketball fandom. We can’t recommend them enough as a tool in your following of this great sport.
In all seriousness, there is a lot of time left before Selection Sunday. Proportionally to how much each game means (eliminating buy games, in other words), roughly thirty percent of the season remains. Last year at this time, UNC was in a world of hurt. They came out of that world in an 8/9 game. Last month at this time, Texas Tech had four more losses to lose and three quarters of a game to play terribly before bouncing back from rock bottom and emerging within shouting distance of a bubble comeback. Things can change in instants, and a lot of instants remain between us and decision day. Importantly, though, that works both ways.
With the NIT specifically, the window is painfully narrow. A team like Kentucky making the field would be spectacular for us at The Barking Crow, but the likelihood of it happening is well below 50%. Not only can the Cats recover, but they could also plummet. In fact, this is exactly what they did two years ago from a similar situation. They fell apart. UNC? Similar story. The Tar Heels aren’t going to finish below .500—they’ve clinched that—but in addition to holding two or three more Q1 opportunities *before* the ACC Tournament, they have two or three more chances for devastating losses, playing Florida State and Notre Dame on the road in addition to an early game in Greensboro against someone like Syracuse or Boston College.
So please, join us, and watch closely, but remember how much cake remains to be baked. We’ve got a long road ahead of us, friends. A long, long road.
It Isn’t About the Refs (But It Was Briefly About the Refs)
Praising NFL referees three days before a heavily debated call put the nail in the Eagles’ coffin? Couldn’t be me.
I don’t know if the defensive holding penalty on James Bradberry was the right call. I suspect some still have strong opinions one way or the other, but I don’t see how you can feel much certainty about it in either direction. I’m not even sure we were looking at the full play on the replays—it was hard to tell, but it seemed like there was contact before the moment the play was often paused for the zoom-in on Bradberry’s left hand. I also don’t love the number of people who know better pretending catchability matters on defensive holding. Whether a pass is catchable or not affects pass interference, but it doesn’t affect holding. Holding happens before the ball is thrown.
Regardless, it was a disappointing moment in an otherwise great game. That doesn’t mean it was wrong, but it was a big stinkin’ bummer to see that moment materializing and to then have it extinguished so anticlimactically.
A few takeaways from the game itself:
Andy Reid is behind nobody but Belichick as far as this era goes, and he’s up there with the all-time greats. We hit on this last week as well, but the man is a titan of the game. His personality and his constant presence in the sport probably contribute to him being overlooked in these sorts of conversations, but that seems to be shifting as well, and if you’re looking for one coach to win another title in the next few years, it’s hard to find one with better odds than Reid. Forget the Brady/Mahomes comparisons. Let’s talk Brady/Reid. Reid feels a little like the coach equivalent of Tom Brady in 2015, when he’d just won his fourth title after ten ring-less years and started putting to bed questions about whether he was a “system quarterback.” It wouldn’t be a big surprise to look back in 2028 and say, “Remember when we were spending so much time talking about Sean McVay and Sean McDermott and Zac Taylor and Kyle Shanahan that we forgot Andy Reid was one of the best coaches ever?”
We’re not trying to overplay this. Reid shows up near the top of every ranking of current NFL head coaches. But back in September, everyone was talking about how good the Bills were going to be, and back in December, everyone was talking about how hot the Bengals were, and going into Sunday, a lot of people cast this game as Patrick Mahomes vs. two of the best lines the NFL had ever seen. Then, Kansas City didn’t allow a sack and Kansas City roared back in the second half and Kansas City won a Super Bowl with a roster whose leading postseason rusher/receiver was a seventh-round pick making less than a million dollars. Were the Chiefs loaded? Sure, yes, sure. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and Chris Jones and Orlando Brown Jr. are great football players, and they weren’t the only ones on the roster. But lots of teams have lots of great players. Reid makes so much happen with his.
Jalen Hurts came out of this looking like a diamond despite losing the game and fumbling a ball that was returned for a touchdown, which was and is refreshing. Hurts was incredible, doing more for the quarterback sneak than Babe Ruth did for the home run and looking every bit a worthy sparring partner for the best offensive player in the NFL. Selfishly, it brought a lot of joy to see Hurts succeed. You could write a hell of a leadership book based off his time at Alabama, and it’s so rare to see someone blend confidence and humility the way he blends that pair. Good for him. The arrow is pointing upwards.
As for Mahomes: What is there to say? It wasn’t some exceptional game from him, there weren’t outrageous moments or any passes thrown between his legs, but once he got moving in the third quarter, it was clear the Eagles’ margin for error was gone. He’s so visibly athletic and the things he does are so visibly impressive that he hasn’t fallen victim to the debate Brady did regarding whether he was the best or if he surroundings were the best, but in case the Reid paragraphs gave the wrong idea: Patrick Mahomes is unbelievably good at football. And he’s also evidently pretty damn tough. Didn’t ham up the ankle once it felt better, either. That’s one of the differences between tough and showy. With the toughest players, you don’t remember that they’re hurt.
Housekeeping
We’re 28 days from the NIT’s tipoff (and the First Four, good God, what has Stu done to my brain), so expect pure and abject chaos around here. I have no idea how often we’ll get notes out, how good they’ll be, or what will and won’t disappear under the couch only for us to find it in April. We will try to do everything, which is a terrible idea that will end in us not doing everything and makes it hard to predict what we will actually do. Consider yourself warned.
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What’s happening tonight:
College Basketball (the big ones, Stu’s got the rest)
- 7:00 PM EST: Creighton @ Providence (FS1)
- 9:00 PM EST: Kansas @ Oklahoma State (ESPN)
NBA (the two best games)
- 7:30 PM EST: Boston @ Milwaukee (TNT)
- 9:00 PM EST: Sacramento @ Phoenix (League Pass)
NHL (the two best games)
- 8:30 PM EST: Boston @ Dallas (ESPN+)
- 9:00 PM EST: Tampa Bay @ Colorado (ESPN+)
