The NFL’s investigation into Stephen Ross’s various schemes is complete, and earlier this week, the Dolphins owner learned he’s being fined 1.5 million dollars, stripped of two draft picks (including the Dolphins’ 2023 first-rounder), and suspended through the middle of October, which evidently does not mean he has to briefly sell the team and then buy it back, though that might definitionally be a more accurate description of suspending an owner. In exchange, he nearly got Tom Brady to play quarterback and Sean Payton to coach. How nearly? That’s still unclear.
While the investigation was prompted by Brian Flores’s lawsuit alleging racism on the part of the NFL, and while the most widely covered specific allegation was the one that Ross had offered Flores $100,000 per lost game in an effort to encourage tanking, the NFL seems to have focused on the tampering aspects. Seemingly once while Brady was under contract with the Patriots and once while Brady was under contract with the Buccaneers, the Dolphins—vice chairman Bruce Beal was heavily involved in this himself—were in contact with the quarterback about leaving his team and playing for them. The second case was the most scandalous in nature. Rather than a straightforward tampering incident, multiple reports now have it involving a conspiracy in which Brady would join the Dolphins’ ownership group and front office, the Dolphins would hire Payton, and Brady would then unretire, forcing a trade to the Dolphins. There’s a belief out there that this is why Brady initially retired from the Buccaneers, and that the plan was foiled when Flores filed his lawsuit. I think the logic behind this foiling impression is that the predetermination of Payton being the head coach would have proved Flores’s case that teams were violating the Rooney Rule, which in turn forced the Dolphins to backtrack, but it’s possible I’m missing something there. Regardless, this is kind of where we get into uncertain territory. We know the Dolphins were in contact with Brady about an ownership role while Brady was under contract with the Buccaneers. We know the Dolphins were in contact with Payton while Payton was under contract with the Saints. We don’t know exactly how fleshed-out the plan was, or how close it was to happening, and importantly, we don’t know the level of Brady’s participation in the plan’s design. It doesn’t sound like we ever will know. Because the NFL has declined to pursue punishment of Tom Brady.
In the fallout from the Dolphins’ announced punishment, league spokesperson Brian McCarthy confirmed, at the very least to ESPN’s Jenna Laine, that Brady will not receive any punishment for the tampering. This could mean he was simply a target of the tampering. It could mean the NFL’s tampering rule is an oddly one-way street, and that Brady didn’t really violate it. It could also mean, though, that Brady is finally untouchable. The Patriots weren’t untouchable during Spygate. Payton was not untouchable for the Saints’ bounty scheme. Brady was famously not untouchable during Deflategate. He might be untouchable now. That, or the NFL might just be unwilling to undergo the circus of touching him, possibly especially not right now, with the Deshaun Watson proceedings requiring so much league time and energy.
Again, it’s possible this is just the NFL relaying that Brady wasn’t the ringleader here, that it was the Dolphins, that the risk of trying to pull off a coup of this magnitude is, at least in scenarios in which you fail, that it’ll come at the cost of a little bit of money, some of your time enjoying the gig of being an NFL executive, and one good rookie. If it’s that, well, everyone has an idea of the price now, I guess.
If it’s not that, it means a lot more. It means Brady can get bolder in all his little plots. How much bolder? Nobody knows. The NFL definitely has a threshold, and it matters how the media and fans react, and it matters if Brady ever gets caught for it. But there’s a pretty straightforward interpretation here that says the NFL is done trying to make Tom Brady behave. How much bolder can he get? It wouldn’t be surprising if he’s asking the same question.
The Brewers: It’s Happening
Since trading Josh Hader, the Brewers have lost three straight games to the Pirates, last night’s coming on a walk-off home run allowed by new closer Devin Williams, today’s coming when deadline acquisition Matt Bush allowed more than the one expected extra-inning run to score.
Williams is not a bad pitcher. He was an All-Star himself this year. Bush was acquired separately from the Hader deal. The Brewers are probably feeling lucky it was the two of them, rather than newly-acquired-in-the-Hader-deal Taylor Roger. But this is a pretty good illustration of the risk the Brewers took on by trading Hader when they did.
The value of relief pitchers is unique, owing to the wide range of leverage relief pitchers face. Starters have the same job pretty much every game they start. Position players have the same job pretty much every game they play. Relievers have a different job in nearly every appearance, and at their highest leverage, those jobs are uniquely decisive. At points, entire games come down to a relief pitcher, and the default expectation is that they succeed, as it’s more common for a hitter to record an out than for a hitter to reach base. Games come down to position players as well, but that isn’t as large a piece of their job. The best ones get plenty of opportunities. Games come down to starting pitchers as well, but there’s always a whole game left when they begin pitching, while the best relievers pitch most often in moments of truth. Other playoff contenders traded away contributing players, but it’s hard to envision a scenario in which the Cardinals’ entire season would have come down to the departed Harrison Bader. It’s easy to envision playoff games or crucial regular season games coming down to the back end of the Brewers bullpen, one that now does not include Hader.
Hader isn’t much better, on paper, than Rogers. According to many, he isn’t better at all on paper than Williams. But the Brewers traded away a great player, and he’s a great player whose greatness came in part from the nature of his role. Hader always pitched when it mattered most. If things now go wrong when things matter most, a clear connection will be made. Rare is the case where the connection’s that clear.
So, this is the risk the Brewers have taken. It isn’t one very likely to break against them, but it’s going to hurt uniquely badly if it does. Usually, the fallouts from trades work themselves out on the margins. This one’s going to play out on the main stage.
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Viewing schedule for the day, second screen rotation in italics:
- 12:35 PM EDT: Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh, Woodruff vs. Thompson (MLB TV)
- 2:15 PM EDT: Cubs @ St. Louis – Game 1, Stroman vs. Mikolas (MLB TV)
- 3:45 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ San Francisco, Kershaw vs. Junis (MLB TV)
- 4:10 PM EDT: Colorado @ San Diego, Freeland vs. Musgrove (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Washington @ Philadelphia, Espino vs. Syndergaard (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Atlanta @ New York (NL), Wright vs. Carrasco (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Houston @ Cleveland, Verlander vs. Plesac (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Detroit, Springs vs. Hutchison (FS1)
- 7:40 PM EDT: Toronto @ Minnesota, Manoah vs. Gray (MLB TV)
- 7:45 PM EDT: Cubs @ St. Louis – Game 2, TBD vs. Quintana (MLB TV)
- 8:05 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Texas, Cueto vs. Ragans (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Boston @ Kansas City, Pivetta vs. Bubic (MLB TV)
