Jason Heyward is back from the Covid-but-we-can’t-call-it-Covid IL, Christopher Morel is lighting Wrigley Field on fire, and this thing may finally be coming to a head.
For years, Cubs fans have been disappointed in Jason Heyward’s performance on the field. For years, Jason Heyward’s performance on the field has been disappointing. Signed to a massive eight-year deal prior to the 2016 season (after thoroughly excelling for the Cardinals in 2015), Heyward has posted just one above-average offensive season in Chicago, and it was across only 181 plate appearances in 2020.
There’s been defensive value, but not enough to salvage things. Conventional wisdom says you want to pay roughly eight million dollars per WAR in free agency. Using FanGraphs and the deal’s average annual value, the Cubs paid $15M over the contract’s first six years. If Heyward meets expectations the rest of this year, they’ll have paid $17M per WAR. If this all goes where it’s looking like it’s going and Heyward doesn’t contribute to the Cubs next season, they’ll have paid roughly $21M per WAR. You could, to be fair, do worse. Plenty have done worse. But it’s turned out to be a bad contract, and despite Heyward generally being well thought-of as a person in Chicago, it’s made for a bad situation. A bad situation that, again, may finally be coming to a head.
Reasons exist to hold onto Jason Heyward. Reasons exist to play Jason Heyward. If those reasons did not exist, the Cubs would not be holding onto Jason Heyward, and the Cubs would not be playing Jason Heyward. The question the Cubs are always answering, and may finally answer “no” to in the days ahead, is whether those reasons outweigh the reasons to cut him loose.
First, there’s production: Up until last year, Heyward was significantly better than replacement-level, and with nobody else taking on that contract, his salary was something of a sunk cost. Could that value return? Definitely. Plenty of batters have bounced back from one atrocious year, and Heyward really has had just one outright-atrocious year. 2016 a major surprise. 2017 was adequate. 2018 and 2019 were all the way up to average. 2020 was good, albeit short. Over 84 plate appearances in 2022, it’s been bad, but that’s a small sample. A few good games could dramatically change that picture.
Second, there’s leadership: The Cubs are a young team, and there’s a line of thinking that states you want your young players to learn from the example of veterans. A good question for this line of thinking is whether the young players on the Cubs are really the same young guys this team will build around when the time arrives to contend once more, but the idea exists, and it’s hard to know how much value it has, especially from the outside.
Third, there’s the simple matter of needing a body: At times since last year’s trade deadline, the Cubs have simply needed bodies out there. Even right now, the value of someone who can competently play the field and handle a plate appearance is greater than zero, with only one healthy position player on the 40-man roster and not on the active roster. The Cubs’ bench is thin right now. Very thin.
For the early stages of this year, this all seemed understandable. Heyward playing was taking plate appearances from Clint Frazier, from Rafael Ortega, from Michael Hermosillo, and from few others. Frazier and Hermosillo have taken opposite paths to this spot, but they’re lottery tickets in their prime. Ortega is a lottery ticket past his prime. Of all the players the Cubs are looking at right now, those three are not at the top of the developmental priority list. Should more energy be spent on Frazier and Hermosillo? Should Ortega be treated as a trade-deadline-rental-in-waiting? You could make a case for all of that, but you could also make a case against it. Ortega occupies a role similar to that of Justin Ruggiano in 2014. Frazier and Hermosillo are something like what Chris Valaika was on that team. Could it work out with those kinds of guys? Yes, and it sometimes does, but it could also work out with Jason Heyward, and you could theoretically generate more value by resurrecting Heyward to a passable state than by getting 0.6 fWAR out of Hermosillo.
Now, though, the equation has changed. Because now it isn’t Hermosillo & Frazier & Ortega. Now, it’s Christopher Morel. Christopher Morel, who might be pretty good. Christopher Morel, who is extremely fun.
We’ll deal with the “fun” piece first: I don’t think Jason Heyward’s generating much marketing value for the Cubs, and I don’t think the Cubs are thinking too much about marketing value right now. Were marketing value a priority for the Cubs these days, trading all three of Rizzo/Báez/Bryant would not have received a green light from ownership last summer. That said, there’s a chance someone on the business side could look at what Morel is doing and say, “Good God, Jed, keep that guy up, he’s the only thing making our fans happy.” Is that likely? I doubt it. But it’s at least possible.
More importantly, the “might be pretty good” piece: It’s true! Morel is not an exceptionally high-profile prospect. The scouting report on him when he came up was that he would have exceptional stretches and dreadful stretches at the plate, that he had great physical tools but that making contact was not among that category of tools. So far, he’s lived up to the billing, absolutely pulverizing the baseball but striking out at a clip not far off the roster average, a clip that’s expected to rise as scouting reports on him improve and as he inevitably goes cold, which the initial scouting report suggested would and will come.
Still, a player whose hot stretches look like this is valuable, especially at the age of 23, which is the age Morel will turn in three weeks. If Seiya Suzuki returns quickly from this finger injury and the Cubs want to play Heyward, they’re going to either have to sit Ian Happ, make Willson Contreras catch more, sit Patrick Wisdom, or send Morel back down to Iowa where he can get regular playing time. From there, it becomes a question of how much value Heyward provides on the bench compared to Frazier & Ortega (I’m assuming the IL stays static in this thought experiment, which isn’t the best assumption but is a fair one considering Suzuki could be back next week), and on the bench, that equation is different than it was in the starting lineup. On the bench, you’re no longer hoping on Heyward to get back to being a passable bat and a good glove who can provide a veteran presence in the clubhouse. On the bench, there’s no bouncing back. It’s just biding time.
The issue may not be forced. Injuries are a constant. Similarly, the issue might be forced and the Cubs might still choose Heyward, either through a lot of lineup rotation or by indeed sending Morel back down for a stint. But the equation has changed, and it continues to change. This thing may finally be coming to a head.
Five Games Against the Cardinals
Even if the Cubs had as bad a record as the Royals, this series would be significant, because it matters for the Cardinals and the Cubs, as a broader cultural entity, wish losses upon the Cardinals. As it stands, the Cubs are pretty much toast for 2022, but as we’ve mentioned a lot and will continue to mention, the difference between a 65-win 2022 and a 75-win 2022 is large in terms of what it says about the state of the roster. This logic can go too far—the Tigers were not as close to contention as last year made them appear—but you always want to win more games, and being capable of beating a solid team, even when you’re at your worst, says a good thing about the pieces you have.
More than that, though, and more than what it means for the Cardinals, it’s just a competition. It’s a competition both sides care about. It’s like college football a little bit: These games matter for the sole, circular reason that they matter.
Keegan Thompson gets the start tonight, opposing Matthew Liberatore, a 22-year-old who isn’t much of a prospect but has made a few starts for a Cardinals roster missing Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks, and Steven Matz (and still sitting just two games behind the Brewers). Tomorrow, it’s Marcus Stroman against Miles Mikolas, who’s off to a first two months closer to his great 2018 than even his good 2019. On Saturday, it’s a doubleheader, and neither side has announced its starters but the assumption is Matt Swarmer will start one game for the Cubs while the second belongs to either the bullpen, Anderson Espinoza, or rapidly ascending prospect Caleb Kilian, 25 years old today and part of the return from the Kris Bryant deal. Sunday, it’s Justin Steele against Adam Wainwright, and unfortunately, Wainwright has been pitching even better at 40 than you might fear.
It’s important, then, to get a win tonight. This is the best matchup of the three we know. To win the series, which would be fun and rewarding and provide a jolt of enjoyment in this rough season, the Cubs likely need to win tonight, grab the one win you should always expect to grab in a doubleheader (Monday hurts, still), and steal one more. Fingers crossed for Thompson to be as good as he often has been so far, and for Liberatore to look like a non-prospect.
Drew Timme Stays, Trevor Keels Goes
In the final wave of NBA Draft decisions, Drew Timme announced he would return to Gonzaga, Marcus Sasser announced we would return to Houston, and Trevor Keels announced he would turn pro.
The questions now, nationally, return to the transfer portal, where ten EvanMiya five-stars and fifteen EvanMiya four-stars remain uncommitted. Some of these, like Keyontae Johnson, have unusual circumstances surrounding them, but there is movement left to occur, and it’s not meaningless movement. Rosters are falling into place, but they are not yet fully in place.
That said, a big deadline has passed, and what else trickles in isn’t going to change the overall picture too dramatically. Gonzaga is going to be the national championship favorite. Behind them, Kansas is trendy right now because they had a great day yesterday, retaining Jalen Wilson and finishing off the Kevin McCullar pickup, but they’re only 8th on T-Rank’s current 2023 rankings, which are our best objective evaluation available. Baylor is 2nd. Tennessee, Duke, and Houston round out the top five. North Carolina and UCLA are also ahead of the Jayhawks.
No Kuemper: Problem?
Darcy Kuemper’s out tonight for the Avalanche after leaving Game 1 with an upper body injury, and it’s unclear how significant that is. This regular season, among the 50 goalies with the most appearances, Kuemper’s save percentage ranked fifth in the league. In the playoffs, it’s been much lower, and while some of that is circumstantial—you play better competition in the playoffs than the regular season, on average—I’m not sure it’s entirely meaningless. The Avalanche’s strength this postseason has been their relentless pressure on opposing nets, has it not been? That doesn’t have much to do with Darcy Kuemper.
In another area where momentum is intriguing (If anyone knows of good studies on momentum in hockey, with goalies or teams or whomever, any sharing of those would be appreciated), the Rangers beat the Lightning last night in Game 1 of that series. They beat the Lightning soundly. Controlled the game for the whole third period.
My personal best guess on this one is that it isn’t too noteworthy. If the theory that the Lightning were rusty is correct, well, the rust could be knocked off now. If the theory’s incorrect (and I lean that way, especially since it wasn’t like the Lightning came out slow—the game was tied halfway through), it’s not a conversation. The better explanation, which is the one Gelo’s pointing to, is that the Rangers are better than the team they’ve been thought to be. Maybe the guys who’ve won seven of their last ten, all played against the Penguins and Hurricanes, are a solid hockey team. Shocking, to be sure.
Warriors vs. Celtics: The Market, the Models, and the Minds
I’ve never bet much on the NBA, so I don’t have a good read on which probability models are worth attention, but of those quickly accessible: Man, these machines love the Celtics. BPI’s got them up over 80% likely to win the series. FiveThirtyEight has them close to the same. Whatever Basketball Reference uses has them above 55%. Meanwhile, if Action Network’s reporting on the percent of bets on each team tonight are representative of the market’s opinion, the public likes the Warriors a lot.
I don’t know what to make of all of this. It seems to me that the Celtics are an unusual team in today’s NBA, with a best player worse than the best players on, what, ten teams? Jayson Tatum is valuable, and he’s still very young, but it doesn’t seem to my admittedly rather far-from-the-NBA eyes that he’s as good as Ja Morant or Devin Booker, let alone the league’s best.
Of course, if the Celtics win the title, he’ll be the conversation—that’s how the NBA works right now—but the Celtics are something fairly novel within today’s NBA, which is to say that they’re an efficient, well-built team whose whole is greater than the sum of its parts. They are not a collection of superstars, even developed superstars, so much as they are just a good basketball team.
A friend recently pointed out to me how little Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks are often paid in the year they win the Super Bowl. Joe Flacco is the paragon of this, with the aged Peyton Manning also a used example and Tom Brady’s history of team-friendly contracts prominent in the discussion, but even those we think of as well-paid superstars in their primes often won before they got paid. Patrick Mahomes won early. Aaron Rodgers won early.
The NBA hasn’t had the same phenomenon. Not exactly. The NBA is a superstar-driven league. But to casual fans (and evidently bettors), it would track that the team of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson and Draymond Green and now Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins would be overestimated compared to the team of Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart and Al Horford. Just writing that sentence feels a little comical. That’s the point.
Trouble for the Ryu Jays
Just as the Blue Jays have heated up, Hyun Jin Ryu is headed back to the IL with forearm inflammation, leaving after four innings last night. Their rotation is still worthy of some envy—Ross Stripling is now probably their fifth starter—but you don’t want good players to get hurt when you’re chasing a title. Little tip I’ve picked up over my years in the industry.
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Viewing schedule tonight (second screen rotation in italics):
- 7:40 PM EDT: Padres @ Brewers, Manaea vs. Houser (MLB TV)
- 8:00 PM EDT: Oilers @ Avalanche, Game 2 (TNT)
- 8:05 PM EDT: Cardinals @ Cubs, Liberatore vs. Thompson (MLB TV)
- 9:00 PM EDT: Celtics @ Warriors, Game 1 (ABC)
- 10:10 PM EDT: Mets @ Dodgers, Walker vs. Gonsolin (MLB TV)
There were good day game matchups today and we failed to publish these in time to list them. Alas. Still working on moving our cadence up a few hours.
