More information came out yesterday about the Cale Gundy situation at Oklahoma (Stu recapped it a little in his notes yesterday, if you’re trying to figure out what happened), in the form of a second statement by Sooners head coach Brent Venables (I like that they call it a Monday statement, as though each day of the week needs a statement):
This is actually fairly explanatory context. Reading the word we all assume Gundy read multiple times is different from reading it once in some sort of Ron Burgundy teleprompter moment. Reasonable people can disagree on the proper remedy for that, and the theories about Gundy as a Stoops-era holdover Venables didn’t mind seeing leave could have legs, but our best impression of what happened here is that some players were justifiably upset about how Gundy handled the moment in the film room, and the decision some group of people reached, or possibly Gundy himself reached but without his superiors stopping him, was for Gundy to resign. That all adds up. There’s no need for conspiracy theories here. What is interesting about this is what it indicates about Brent Venables. Namely, that he appears to be a players’ coach.
You hear the term “players’ coach” thrown around, but I don’t know that it has an explicit definition. The definition we’re using here is that a players’ coach lets players know that they, they the players, are said coach’s priority. A players’ coach can be loose (Steve Kerr, Pete Carroll) or can be a hard-ass (Tom Izzo), but they’re a coach whose players love them because those players, in turn, know the coach loves them. That the coach has their back. That loyalty between themselves and the coach not only exists, but is a two-way street.
Venables’s recruiting performance was one of the most impressive things that happened this college football offseason. Tasked with holding together a class bound for Norman, Oklahoma after the departure of renowned talent developer Lincoln Riley, Venables outperformed even optimistic demands. Oklahoma finished with the 8th-ranked 2022 class. They’re currently ranked 6th in 2023. Oklahoma can still recruit, and a reasonable presumption is that Venables is a big part of the reason why. Good high school athletes want to play for Brent Venables. Good college athletes seem to want to do the same. If it takes letting a locally beloved coaching figure walk out the door to preserve that, I’m sure Venables and Oklahoma both will take it.
This is a lot of speculation on my part. But I think there’s a reason Notre Dame recruiting improved and LSU recruiting worsened when Marcus Freeman replaced Brian Kelly who replaced Ed Orgeron. In today’s college football, it probably pays to be a players’ coach. So long as you can do the coaching part.
Jason Heyward: Au Revoir
Jed Hoyer announced last night that Jason Heyward will not be a Chicago Cub in 2023. The Cubs are letting him go. They’ll keep him on the IL the rest of the season, and then they’ll release him. His contract will linger for twelve months, but he will not.
It’s happy in some ways and sad in others, but I think one emotion present here is exhaustion. Since his first year, Jason Heyward has never clicked performance-wise, to the point that even his very good 2020 was washed out by all the surrounding frustration. The narrative was set in 2016, and while he outperformed his 2016 self each of the next four years, he never performed well enough to make his contract worth it, and he never performed well enough to “clear his name” in the eyes of fans, so to speak. These last two years, he was downright bad. It’s time for the Cubs to move on.
What’s next for Heyward? Well, someone might take a flyer on him at a low price this offseason. I don’t know exactly how this would impact the Cubs’ payroll, but any impact would likely be small. It’s also possible Heyward could retire. Hard to say what happens there.
With the Cubs, what’s next is that Rafael Ortega and Nelson Velázquez will continue to split time in center field, along with Christopher Morel. Next year? I think the hope is that a similar platoon (minus Ortega, in an ideal world for the Cubs) will be productive, but I wouldn’t rule out a free agent signing to put into that DH/OF mix.
Frank Schwindel: Au Revoir?
Also potentially on his way out is first baseman and 2021 fan favorite Frank Schwindel. Frank the Tank was demoted to AAA last night, clearing space for the recently acquired-off-waiver Franmil Reyes. Schwindel, only two years younger than Heyward, got great results last year with slightly above-average contact numbers. This year, the contact diminished and the luck ran out. By fWAR, he’s been the 12th-most negatively impactful player in all of baseball.
Is this the end for Schwindel? It might be. He’s 30 years old, he’s a one-position player (two, if you count DH), and that position (or positions) is one where players need to be well above-average hitters to have a positive impact. Case in point? Anthony Rizzo and DJ Lemahieu have identical wRC+’s, meaning their offensive production has been identical. They’re only 23 plate appearances apart, too. LeMahieu’s been worth somewhere between 1.5 and 2.4 more wins this year, depending on whether you use fWAR or bWAR. Not all of that is defense. A good first baseman needs to be a bopper. Schwindel was not and is not going to be that bopper.
That doesn’t mean we won’t see Schwindel again next year. The Cubs are short on options at first base. But with his age, with Patrick Wisdom still hitting adequately, with a loaded free agent infielder class and both Christopher Morel and Nick Madrigal presenting 2023 upside…it would make some guts sink, including mine, to see Schwindel on the Opening Day MLB roster, as great as the man has been. This, then, means he’s a non-tender candidate this offseason, because using a 40-man roster spot to keep a 31-year-old around to play AAA is unwise.
Reyes is intriguing. The Guardians cut him, which isn’t a good sign, but he only recently turned 27, and over parts of five seasons with San Diego and Cleveland, he’s amassed 3.2 fWAR. This season’s been terrible—he’s got a wRC+ 31% worse than the league average, and with his defense not helping anything, he’s been about as valuable as Frank Schwindel—but the upside is there, and it’s worth it to give him some DH and pinch hit at-bats over the rest of the regular season. Might even be worth it to try him at first base. Prior to this year, the guy was a solid hitter. Lot of strikeouts, but when he connected he absolutely smoked the ball. It’s worth trying to figure a player like that out.
No Hendricks, No Alzolay
Hoyer also gave some injury updates. Kyle Hendricks is going for another MRI, to see if his shoulder strain is improving. Sounds like he could be shut down for the year soon. Hopefully the reset works. Adbert Alzolay is throwing live batting practice (to Brennen Davis, notably), but he might not come back this season either. No sense in rushing him, as nice as it would be to get him some MLB innings again.
Oh No, Chris Sale
Chris Sale’s battle with the whims of fate took another dark turn over the weekend, as we learned today that he broke his wrist riding a bike to get lunch after a productive throwing session on Saturday at Boston College. It’s his non-throwing wrist, but he’s out for the year, and a Red Sox team that’s been taking its licks all over the place takes yet another one.
Joining Sale on the journey of personal injury is Matt Carpenter, who’s been otherworldly for the Yankees this year (Carpenter has, honest to God, been the most productive hitter in baseball with 150 or more PA’s). He broke his foot on a foul ball. His return ETA is unclear. It’s bad news for the Yankees, who have Giancarlo Stanton on the IL with Achilles tendonitis and Anthony Rizzo flirting with the IL with the back issues, which have flared back up. In better news for the Yankees, they beat the Mariners last night and the Blue Jays lost to the Orioles, pushing the Yanks back to more than ten games ahead and cutting their probability of losing the AL East by nearly half.
In other results of note last night, the Mets kept rolling (against the Reds, now) and the Giants beat the Padres 1-0, with Alex Wood outdueling Blake Snell. It was the fifth straight loss for the Pads, who suddenly sit just a game up on Milwaukee for the final NL playoff spot. The Giants won their third straight, but they’re still five and a half back.
The Big Ten TV Deal Is Near
Any day now, or so it sounds, the Big Ten will sign their new media rights deal, which we’ve been told will be the catalyst for the Pac-12’s media rights situation getting sorted out, which we can assume will give us our answers on what’s going to happen to the Pac-12.
The fact no movement has happened yet out of the Pac-12 does point towards the Pac-12 potentially holding on, but the stagnancy also might be meaningless. There’s no prescribed timeline with realignment. And while we don’t know what will happen, we know the Pac-12 has two of the least valuable Power Five members right now in Washington State and Oregon State, and they just lost their two most valuable members, and the Big 12 and the ACC have issues but they don’t look like patchwork leagues. It’s possible the gap between the Pac-12 and the Big 12 is small enough that the more powerful Pac-12 schools will pull off some unequal revenue sharing or short-term deal, adding Boise State and another Mountain West school (or just staying at ten, which isn’t desirable but is an option that doesn’t dilute the revenue share); and it’s possible something very creative will happen involving cutting dead weight or adding sneakier brands like Gonzaga or cutting some deal with the Big 12’s more powerful parts; but it’s hard to believe the Pac-12 would actually raid the Big 12. I don’t know. Maybe I’m delusional because of the Iowa State bias. But it’d be legitimately surprising if the Big 12 came out of this weakened in an absolute sense. Weakened in a relative sense, by the Pac-12 coming out stronger than expected? Sure. Possible. But in the absolute sense, losing members would be a big shock. I still think we’re headed for Pac-12 dissolution.
As far as the Big Ten deal, they’re going to get a ton of money and ESPN isn’t going to be involved, if anyone cares about that besides the media insiders writing all the articles (the money part is interesting—I don’t care if the Big Ten is or isn’t on ESPN).
T.J. Otzelberger: Not Done Yet
Well, maybe actually now they’re done.
Iowa State landed its fourth recruit in the 2023 class yesterday, pulling in Kayden Fish from Kansas City. Fish is a three-star, 6’6” power forward, and while we’ve been spoiled with the recruiting so far, landing three-stars isn’t a bad thing. If you’re landing guys at all, especially this early in the cycle, you’re in a good spot. It means you’re hitting your targets, and that’s a great barometer of where a program stands. The class ranks fourth nationally right now, and while it’ll likely slide a little as more top guys commit, that’s a great class to have coming in as the program prepares to graduate a ton of guys this spring. Iowa State basketball: The outlook is positive.
Elgton Jenkins: Not Good News
This isn’t all that surprising, but it’s sounding like Elgton Jenkins will stay on the PUP list to start the season, which would leave him unavailable into October and potentially leave the Packers down their first-stringer at both positions on the left side of the offensive line, should David Bakhtiari not be back for Week 1. This should be ok, but a concerning part is the question of how effective each will be when they do return. 90%? 95%? How much of a difference does that make as the season slogs on?
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Viewing schedule for the day ahead, second screen rotation in italics:
- 4:10 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Kansas City – Game 1, Lynn vs. Singer (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Miami @ Philadelphia, Garrett vs. Wheeler (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Toronto @ Baltimore, Manoah vs. Bradish (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Boston, Morton vs. Hill (TBS)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Cincinnati @ New York (NL), Minor vs. Carrasco (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Detroit, Bieber vs. Alexander (MLB TV)
- 7:40 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Kansas City, Martin vs. Heasley (MLB TV)
- 8:05 PM EDT: Washington @ Cubs, Espino vs. Stroman (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Milwaukee, Yacabonis vs. Peralta (MLB TV)
- 8:40 PM EDT: St. Louis @ Colorado, Mikolas vs. Feltner (MLB TV)
- 9:40 PM EDT: Anaheim @ Oakland, Ohtani vs. Kaprielian (MLB TV)
- 9:40 PM EDT: San Francisco @ San Diego, Cobb vs. Musgrove (MLB TV)
- 10:10 PM EDT: Minnesota @ Los Angeles, Ryan vs. Urías (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- 10:10 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Seattle, Cole vs. Castillo (MLB TV)
