FanGraphs posted its Playoff Odds this week, and few things bring me more happiness. I love the Playoff Odds. I adore the Playoff Odds. I am obsessed with the Playoff Odds.
This isn’t great for my MLB fandom. It makes things like last year’s Orioles surge less joyful. It makes it explicit when teams aren’t trying to win in a given season. It’s a lot like looking ahead at the ending of the book.
Still, it’s very hard to look away. Mostly because the Playoff Odds are so damn accurate.
The anti-analytics trope is often overdone. Knowing that getting on base is a batter’s primary purpose and that home runs are good doesn’t lessen the game of baseball. But it’s an issue for the analytically inclined that we can look at the Cubs’ 76-86 projection and say, “Ok, that’s it, then.”
It isn’t “it,” exactly. The season isn’t over. They do play the games on the field, and surprises do happen. The Cubs have a one-in-twelve playoff shot, per the odds themselves, and that’s far from nothing. Still, it’s probably the answer, and for as frustrated as I am with the Cubs PR department for allowing this narrative to develop where they’re expected to compete for a playoff berth this season, I have some envy for those with more immediate hope than I. It’s fun to follow sports a little blindly. It leaves more space for magic to happen.
For those who don’t parse these projection systems and are curious about the Cubs specifically, the situation is this: Projection systems and betting markets don’t think the Cubs have a good chance at a winning record. Projection systems and betting markets really don’t think the Cubs have a chance at making the playoffs in a league where eight to ten other teams are competing for those six spots and two could reasonably be called superteams. Some Cubs media who should know better have been stoking the flames of expectation, saying the youth could overperform and that the Cubs have upside. A lot of teams have youth. A lot of teams have upside. This is like the returning production fallacy in college sports. Just because a college football team returns twenty starters doesn’t mean it’s automatically going to be good. Those twenty have to be good players. Just because the Cubs have a lot of youth doesn’t mean the Cubs are going to break out. That youth has to break out.
So, I get some joy from seeing the numbers lined up on the page. I get some joy from seeing that the Guardians have a 42.2% shot at the AL Central and that the Orioles are almost at one-in-ten to make the playoffs and that Atlanta’s the clear-cut World Series favorite. But that’s because I’m a dork who likes numbers and spends a ton of time each year betting MLB futures. I’d sometimes rather be half-blind, full-hopeful, cheering for the Cubs.
Don’t Worry About the Bracket Reveal
If you enjoy the NCAA revealing the current top sixteen teams, please, enjoy it. But if you’re curious whether it matters…ehh.
It’s predictive, and it’s telling, and it’s an insight, but the bracketology industry generally has a pretty good idea where the top four seed lines sit at any given moment. Alabama, Houston, and Purdue figure to be on the top line. Kansas, Texas, and UCLA are in the next group down. Then come Tennessee, Arizona, Virginia, and Baylor, in some order. Then we’ve got a mix of teams including Marquette, Saint Mary’s, Iowa State, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Xavier, Miami, Indiana, UConn, and Creighton. There could be a little surprise—maybe San Diego State pops up as a 4-seed, or maybe Gonzaga’s held out of the top sixteen—but we aren’t going to learn anything today that dramatically affects our understanding of the landscape. This isn’t the College Football Playoff rankings. There are low stakes here.
Kansas vs. Baylor, Michigan vs. Michigan State
It should be a moving scene tonight in Ann Arbor as Michigan State returns to the court for the first time since this week’s horrors on campus. It’s also a big game, and it should be a good game. Michigan State’s trying to lock down a tournament spot and is grappling for the Big Ten 2-seed. Michigan’s trying to get back on the bubble. The Big Ten has a tight, tight pack from 2 to 8 or 9 or 10. The league might not have the top-line depth of the Big 12 or SEC, but just about every game is a good one, and the crowds are great.
Speaking of the Big 12, Baylor comes to Lawrence today for the easiest part of Kansas’s two-part test. In two weeks, Kansas will finish its regular season in Austin, but to make that a conference title-deciding game, the Jayhawks almost definitely need to win today.
Thankfully for Bill Self, they probably will. They’re the better team, they’re playing at home, Baylor may have gotten righter lately but so has KU. Maybe I’m missing the estimate here, but we aren’t holding our breaths around this game.
For Iowa State’s part, it’s a big one today in Manhattan. Iowa State might not be realistically in the mix for the Big 12 championship, but they’re fighting for tournament seeding, and Kansas State is their primary competition. What’s more, both teams would like a spot in Des Moines, a spot currently expected to go to Marquette after Kansas takes the first. Iowa State could still get past the Wildcats with a loss today, but a win would make it very hard for K-State to end up on top in that specific battle.
Cyclone in the Spotlight
Tyrese Haliburton’s in tonight’s three-point contest, which might not be the biggest spotlight ever, but I don’t know that we’ve spent enough time in these notes, specifically, appreciating the guy for helping keep ISU on the map in the NBA. He’s not an Otzelberger recruit—though from Wisconsin, he came to Ames during the years Otzelberger was out learning to be a head coach—but he fits the mold of the Wisconsin–Iowa State pipeline, and he’s a great example of the kind of upside you can ever so rarely get in a three-star recruit. Shame his Cyclone career didn’t end better.
Southern in the Spotlight
And Grambling State! Big SWAC matchup going down out at NBA All-Star Weekend this afternoon. Love to see it. Tournament implications.
Aaron and Aaron
Myself and Packers salary cap expert Ken Ingalls agree that what happened with Aaron Jones’s contract restructure is that he took a pay cut while also pushing some of his pay out into 2024. Which is to say, Ken Ingalls said that and it confirmed my impression so I’m feeling pretty good about myself, not gonna lie.
It doesn’t sound like this really says anything about the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. They needed cap space either way. This was just a necessary move, and it gives an answer to the Aaron Jones question, which had been festering. He’s staying, he’s getting a more Packers-friendly deal.
College Baseball Begins
I think this means all the collegiate spring sports are underway. Lot of fun games this weekend if you’re into that. We want to be into that. We’re working on it.
Betting the Daytona 500
Our bets currently have a 79.13-unit deficit. Of that number, 69 units come from NASCAR last year. IndyCar and F1 contribute to make up more than the rest. We had a terrible betting season on motorsports last year, and tomorrow, it begins anew. How are we changing?
Well, we still haven’t finished our models for these sports, so it isn’t going to come from there. Overall, though, we’ll probably be seeking things with odds closer to even. Fewer longshots, more top-ten bets, that sort of thing. That said, we’re hoping to take a shot tomorrow. We haven’t really looked at the odds yet, but we’re looking to take a shot. Because the thing about superspeedway races is that you can believably wipe out a 79.13-unit deficit with a single-unit bet. Is this the thinking that crushed us last year? Not really. Last year our problem was that we tried betting an assortment of winners over each race in the first half of the year, but those assortments rarely won. We’re just trying to lessen losses until we figure something out.
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What’s happening the rest of the weekend (for more college basketball, Stu will have an NIT Fan’s Saturday Preview out later this morning:
College Basketball (the big ones)
- Saturday, 1:00 PM EST: Tennessee @ Kentucky (CBS)
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EST: Baylor @ Kansas (ESPN)
- Saturday, 8:00 PM EST: Michigan State @ Michigan (FOX)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: UNC @ NC State (ESPN)
- Sunday, 3:00 PM EST: Memphis @ Houston (ESPN)
College Basketball (the good ones)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Illinois @ Indiana (ESPN)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Rutgers @ Wisconsin (BTN)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EST: Iowa State @ Kansas State (ESPN)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EST: Oklahoma State @ TCU (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 8:00 PM EST: Nevada @ Utah State (CBSSN)
- Sunday, 6:30 PM EST: Iowa @ Northwestern (BTN)
College Basketball (others of note)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Notre Dame @ Virginia (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EST: DePaul @ Xavier (CBSSN)
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EST: NBA x HBCU Classic – Southern vs. Grambling State (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 6:00 PM EST: Duke @ Syracuse (ESPN)
- Saturday, 6:00 PM EST: Georgia @ Alabama (SECN)
- Saturday, 10:30 PM EST: Cal @ UCLA (P12N)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Ohio State @ Purdue (CBS)
NASCAR
- Saturday, 11:30 AM EST: Xfinity Qualifying (FS1)
- Saturday, 1:30 PM EST: ARCA Daytona 200 (FS1)
- Saturday, 5:00 PM EST: Beef. It’s What’s For Dinner. 300 – Xfinity Series at Daytona (FS1)
- Sunday, 3:00 PM EST: Daytona 500 (FOX)
NHL (playoff-impacting games)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EST: Florida @ Nashville (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EST: Colorado @ St. Louis (NHLN)
- Saturday, 5:00 PM EST: NY Islanders @ Boston (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 5:30 PM EST: New Jersey @ Pittsburgh (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 6:00 PM EST: Columbus @ Dallas (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: Montreal @ Toronto (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 8:00 PM EST: Washington @ Carolina – Stadium Series (ABC)
- Saturday, 10:00 PM EST: NY Rangers @ Calgary (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 10:30 PM EST: Arizona @ Los Angeles (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 10:30 PM EST: Buffalo @ San Jose (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 10:30 PM EST: Detroit @ Seattle (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 10:30 PM EST: Tampa Bay @ Vegas (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 2:00 PM EST: Nashville @ Minnesota (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 3:00 PM EST: Edmonton @ Colorado (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 6:00 PM EST: Toronto @ Chicago (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 7:00 PM EST: Winnipeg @ New Jersey (ESPN+)
NBA All-Star Weekend
- Saturday, 8:00 PM EST: Skills Challenge, 3-Point Contest, Slam Dunk Contest (TNT)
- Sunday, 7:30 PM EST: All-Star Draft (TNT)
- Sunday, 8:30 PM EST: All-Star Game (TNT)
Premier League
- Saturday, 7:30 AM EST: Arsenal @ Aston Villa (USA)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Crystal Palace @ Brentford (Peacock)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Fulham @ Brighton (Peacock)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Southampton @ Chelsea (Peacock)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Leeds @ Everton (USA)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Manchester City @ Nottingham Forest (Peacock)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Bournemouth @ Wolverhampton (Peacock)
- Saturday, 12:30 PM EST: Liverpool @ Newcastle (NBC)
- Sunday, 9:00 AM EST: Leicester @ Manchester United (USA)
- Sunday, 11:30 AM EST: West Ham @ Tottenham (USA)
EFL Championship (games of consequence)
- Saturday, 7:30 AM EST: Sheffield United @ Millwall (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Swansea @ Blackburn
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Stoke @ Blackpool
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Birmingham @ Huddersfield
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Burnley @ Luton (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: QPR @ Middlesbrough
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Coventry @ Rotherham
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Bristol @ Sunderland
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Norwich @ Wigan
