We wrote our thoughts out Saturday night about college football’s second week, and we don’t have anything to add to those right now, so for the broad stuff, click the link. For the narrow stuff (and non-college football things, which are below), join us here and now.
It wasn’t exciting when Iowa’s field goal fell harmlessly to the turf on Saturday and the Cyclones left Iowa City with a win. It wasn’t something met with elation, at least in my house. It was a relief. Iowa State should have won the game, and win the game it did.
This says a lot about how far the program’s come under Matt Campbell. Iowa appears to be on its way to a bad year, sure, but that doesn’t change how beating Iowa in an ugly, mistake-laden game like Saturday’s is not cause for pandemonic celebration, like it would have been seven years ago. We’re at a point where the Cyclones can clearly outplay the Hawkeyes. We’re at a point where beating the Hawkeyes is a reasonable thing to ask the football program to do.
That is a cause for celebration. That is remarkable. In a rebuilding season of its own, Iowa State was so obviously the better team than Iowa that somewhere during the game, winning became a basic expectation, and while we’re not at the point where next year’s Cyclones should be an overwhelming favorite or anything—the power structure’s far from flipped—we’re closer. This was a big step forward.
Looking ahead, relievedly still, to the rest of the season, I’m not sure what a reasonable goal is for this team. You can write off the mistakes to a large extent as things that happen in a game as emotionally charged as this one, and what you’re left with is mostly the same thing we were left with after Week 1: This team is solid, but it’s got work to do.
In college football overall, that’s a description that leaves a wide range of possible outcomes, but this year’s Big 12 especially lends itself to such uncertainty because this year’s Big 12 is a jumbled league. I could be told by an oracle that Iowa State’s the eighth-best team in the league, and I’d be unsurprised, just as I’d be if the same oracle told me Iowa State’s the best. Kansas—and now, by extension, West Virginia—are both probably on the bad side, but everyone else?
Here, then, is how I’d classify Iowa State’s schedule:
- Already won (2): SEMO, Iowa
- Should win (3): Ohio (H), Kansas (A), West Virginia (H)
- Home games, opponent’s probably good (3): Baylor (H), Kansas State (H), Texas Tech (H)
- Road games, opponent’s probably good (2): Texas (A), TCU (A)
- Home game, opponent might be playoff caliber (1): Oklahoma (H)
- Road game, opponent might be playoff caliber (1): Oklahoma State (A)
There’s a wide range within “probably good”—I’d guess Texas is a lot better than TCU, and I’d put Texas Tech beneath Baylor and Kansas State at the moment—but this, generally, is what we’re working with. Iowa State should win six games, at a minimum. Eight appears a reasonable median. There’s a pretty clear path to eleven in the regular season, but every single thing would have to go right in every game but one for that to happen, unless these teams are all worse than we currently think, which is well within the realm of possibility. For the moment, the priority is avoiding a trap game against Ohio on Saturday. Get through the nonconference schedule unbeaten, then worry about the rest. Meanwhile…
Matt Campbell Isn’t Going to Nebraska (Right Now)
Nebraska fired Scott Frost, and after thinking such a decision would be wholly unjustified late last year, when the Huskers were losing close games all over the place, the question looks indisputable today. You just can’t lose to Northwestern and Georgia Southern. Not after a year like last year’s. They’re fine programs, but you can’t lose to them in this context as Nebraska right now.
The Huskers host Oklahoma this week, and it’s fitting. Back when Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma last winter, we spent a lot of pixels talking about how the risk for the Sooners football program was to turn into Nebraska. Will they? I don’t think so anymore—Brent Venables has been impressive off the field, and I’m excited to see what he does against Kansas State in twelve days in his first real test. Turning the question around, though, I’m not sure Nebraska can become Oklahoma again. They’re just so far away, and while the fanbase is powerful and I’d imagine NIL resources are large, I don’t know that even a community that enthusiastically behind its football team will make a program winners. It can happen, full stop, but will it?
It’s against this backdrop that every Iowa State fan watches warily the whispers of Matt Campbell taking an interview in Lincoln. It would be galling if he took an interview mid-season, which is why I doubt he will (or has), but I’d imagine Nebraska wants him, and I’d imagine Nebraska can outbid Iowa State for him. They have more resources than Iowa State does. Does Campbell want to go there, though? I really, really don’t know. We’ve been told he turned down Michigan State and the Detroit Lions. Those are decent comparisons for Nebraska, but not great ones.
The reality is likely that news on this won’t come until December. The possibility is that Nebraska will find someone they want more than Campbell. The other possibility is that Nebraska offers Campbell the gig, and if offered, neither him taking it nor him denying it would be a surprise. I will say, though: There is no way Nebraska becomes a power in the Big Ten in the immediate future. Especially not if USC becomes as good as everyone seems to think they’re about to become. Nebraska competing with full-strength Ohio State, Michigan, and USC, plus all these other solid football programs? That’s a gargantuan task. Meanwhile, when Oklahoma leaves, the Big 12 will be without a natural power currently displaying competence. Someone might fill the void, and if Campbell’s still at Iowa State, Iowa State’s as well-positioned as anybody to fill it. In the new twelve-team format, a possible peak for this program is to be favored annually to take one of the four first-round byes. That’s how open the Big 12 is, and that’s the territory to which Campbell has brought Iowa State. It’s possible. I’m not sure that’s possible at Nebraska.
So, we wait, and we add it to the list of worries, just as we’ll add any other prominent jobs that open. If Nebraska does pursue Campbell, they probably won’t be the only suitor. It’s a way of life when things are going well for you and you’re of Iowa State’s stature.
Izaiah Brockington, Maui
In Cyclone basketball news, ISU will be playing in the 2024 Maui Invitational and Izaiah Brockington has signed a two-way deal with the Pelicans, so he could get some NBA time this year. Good for him, fingers crossed for him. UNC, UConn, Michigan State, Memphis, Colorado, and Dayton will also be in Maui in ‘24. I think Chaminade only plays in that in the odd years now, but I could be wrong and that could change. Regardless, one more team is TBD or TBA.
No Worries for the Packers (Yet)
It was an ugly loss for the Packers in Minneapolis, but despite all the ugly they were two plays away from winning with:
- Aaron Rodgers and his new receivers playing their first game together.
- David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins both inactive.
- Their primary competition in the division playing a home game against them.
It’s scary psychologically, for fans, to play the Bears with so much uncertainty, but realistically, you’d rather play the Bears now than someone like the Buccaneers. That’s a risky thing to put out into the universe, but I think the Packers could probably play like they did Sunday and still beat the Bears.
On the personnel side, Jon Runyan Jr. was concussed, Quay Walker and Keisean Nixon each hurt their shoulders, and Krys Barnes suffered an ankle injury that required a cart and an air cast. Runyan’s injury further decimates a thin offensive line. The other three thin out the defense a bit, but injuries are part of the game. You just hope to spread them out as luckily as possible. The Nixon one came on a good-looking play on third down, so that was a tough twist of personal momentum for him.
Other NFL thoughts:
- Yes, last night went about as badly as possible for the Cowboys, but the fact Dak Prescott should be back midway through the season keeps them very much alive. Nearly half the NFL makes the playoffs, and for as impotent as the team looked, the Bucs are capable of forcing those performances.
- The Bengals/Steelers game was wild, but I have a hard time believing Joe Burrow turning the ball over that many times was more than a fluke. You’d think they, as well, will be fine. T.J. Watt, meanwhile, should also be back sometime in the medium run, but the Steelers don’t have as much cushion to work with as the Cowboys. That was a big, big win for Pittsburgh.
- If Mac Jones is hurt, how bad is it for the Patriots? Things haven’t exactly been going great up there, and Bill Belichick has a little history of making things happen with an unheralded backup.
Tick, Tock for the Yankees
The Yankees took their weekend series with the Rays, scoring a combined seventeen runs in the first two innings of Saturday and Sunday’s games to dramatically increase their chances of running out the clock and holding onto the AL East. They gained a game on the Rays, they held even with the Blue Jays, now those two teams play five against each other these first four days of the week while the Yankees play a pair in Boston. Good place for the Yankees to be.
Elsewhere:
NL East
The Mets also made some playoff progress, recovering from briefly losing the division lead Friday night to enter this week one and a half ahead of Atlanta, who scored five in the ninth last night to briefly take the lead over Seattle before home runs by Julio Rodríguez and Eugenio Suárez in the bottom half took the game right back. It was a long way of landing right back around where we’ve been for weeks: The Mets are clearly favored but far from safe.
AL Central
A great weekend for the Guardians, who swept Minnesota to nearly bury the Twins, stretching that lead to four and a half games. The lead over the White Sox is at two and a half after Chicago took three but not four in Oakland, and it’s at four games in the loss column, which is significant.
NL Wild Card
The Brewers won two of three over the Reds, the Phillies won three of three over the Nationals, and the Padres won one of three over the Dodgers. Small progress for Milwaukee, and not against the team they’d prefer to be chasing, but we’re at the stage where the Padres’ final projection is behind that of the Phillies, so this is who the Brewers are dealing with, at least for the moment. The gap’s at two games.
The Cubs
Tough weekend for the Cubbies, who’ve now lost eleven of fifteen and dropped six straight series. Really have come back down to earth. Nico Hoerner heated back up, but he left last night’s game with triceps tightness. No IL yet for him, but that’s where Nick Madrigal’s landed, sidelined with a groin strain. Patrick Wisdom is back active.
News
On the news side:
- The Giants extended Wilmer Flores to a small deal through 2024 or 2025, depending on what happens with a pair of player/club options. Consistent, solid player staying in San Francisco.
- Zach Eflin’s back for the Phillies, but he’s going to the bullpen rather than being stretched out to start. If Philadelphia makes a run, look for him to throw some big innings given the consolidated postseason schedule. Seranthony Domínguez is also back, and he’ll be going to the bullpen as well but that was always the plan.
- The Mets get Luis Guillorme back today, four weeks after losing him to a groin strain. He’s been a lifesaver for them at times, providing infield depth and getting on base. Fun kind of player that seems to pop up on playoff teams, probably because they add so much value and thereby help their teams make the playoffs. They have, however, put Starling Marte on the IL, making for a disproportional exchange.
- Tony La Russa spoke to the press yesterday, saying it was unclear whether he’ll return to the dugout or not. He’s evidently had a pacemaker installed. Best of wishes, and accompanying acknowledgment that the White Sox have been playing well since he left the team to get his health checked out. It’s uncomfortable, but it’s possible those things are tied.
- Drew Pomeranz reportedly won’t be back this year, hurting San Diego’s bullpen ahead of the playoff push, or at least removing some upside. It’s a small hit, but big and small, they all keep coming for the Pads.
- Blake Treinen is back on the IL right after coming off it. It’s unclear so far what his prognosis is, or at least I haven’t seen it. The Dodgers are in a position to play it safe, but I’d think with a guy who’s missed nearly the whole year, they’d be trying to get him innings, making me think this isn’t a move of caution.
- Eric Lauer’s on the IL, as we knew was possible for Milwaukee. Jason Alexander is currently the fourth starter there. There is no fifth starter. They’re relying on off-days for the moment.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s on the IL, having strained his hamstring. Will he be back before the playoffs? You’d think so, but a tough loss over these consequential next few weeks, with the division in reach and plenty to play for within the seeding hierarchy.
- The Rays got Wander Franco back, at long last. Didn’t help them Saturday and Sunday, but he’s back.
IndyCar Has a Champion, NASCAR Has an Open Field
Will Power did not win the race yesterday at Laguna Seca, but he drove to a comfortable second-place finish, good enough to hold onto the IndyCar season championship, his second career title and his first since 2014. Now, the long offseason for the sport, which I’d imagine is fairly quiet? If it isn’t, I sure don’t hear much about it.
NASCAR had a good one at Kansas, with Bubba Wallace taking the lead, pulling away, and then holding on as—in a small surprise, I’d think—no caution flag waved over I believe the entire last stage of the race. It’s his second career win, it’s 23XI’s third win as a team, and it puts the #45 car into the second round of the owner playoffs, keeping things a little wacky as far as the behind-the-scenes title is concerned. On the driver playoffs side…we’ve got a good chance of chaos ahead. Of the sixteen playoff drivers, I’m not sure anyone’s technically locked into the second round, with the possible exception of Christopher Bell, who’s above the cut line by 58 points. William Byron, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano are all 40+ points clear, which should leave them safe; and Ryan Blaney and Alex Bowman are both 30+ points clear, which probably means they just need to finish in one piece; and Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Ross Chastain are each 20+ clear, which isn’t comfortable but isn’t really in the danger zone. Behind them, six drivers are within thirteen points of one another, and Kevin Harvick’s 35 points behind the cut line, making him the only driver desperate for a win. The race? It’s at Bristol, and it’s the first time seeing the new car at Bristol on a paved surface. The only race held there so far with this car was Easter’s dirt race. Nobody knows what to expect. It should be a fun Saturday night.
In Formula 1, Max Verstappen won in Italy in a race that, as the rules dictated given the situation, ended under caution. Congratulations to Formula 1 for following its own rules, and for having them in the first place.
Movelor Update
Still no published college football model, as you can see, and it’s not looking likely for tomorrow either. It’s close. It’s very close. But how close is hard to gauge given it’s somewhat new, even as an echo of two older ones of ours.
**
Here’s the viewing schedule for the evening, with the second screen rotation in italics. The MLB pennant race has narrowed enough that the Astros, Dodgers, and Cardinals can all be assumed to be locked into their seedings, at least for the moment. Similarly, the Orioles, Red Sox, and Giants are all done. Fifteen teams playing for twelve spots.
MLB:
- 6:10 PM EDT: Anaheim @ Cleveland, Detmers vs. Pilkington (MLB TV)
- 7:07 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Toronto, Criswell vs. Berríos (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Cubs @ New York (NL), Assad vs. Bassitt (MLB TV)
- 9:45 PM EDT: Atlanta @ San Francisco, Strider vs. Cobb (MLB TV)
NFL:
- 8:15 PM EDT: Denver @ Seattle (ABC)
