Hope you had a good Thanksgiving, friends.
Is Iowa State Good at Basketball?
Let’s start with this question. The answer is no. There are going to be some painful lows this year. But they sure played a good game on Wednesday night.
Xavier’s going to have plenty of struggles, and will probably lose today to Virginia Tech in the third-place game, but that’s a great win for Iowa State and, speaking practically, it gets the median projected final record up to 15-17 or 16-17, which is very close to the effective minimum for NIT consideration. The best part of the outcome is that it shows us the Cyclones can compete against middle-of-the-pack power conference teams. Again, Xavier’s going to have its share of struggles, but the Musketeers should make the tournament, and I’m not referring to the NIT with that one. Iowa State beat what might be a tournament team on Wednesday.
How’d they do it? Izaiah Brockington was lights out, hitting four of six threes to pace a 50% team effort from beyond the arc (he also went 8-of-13 on twos). George Conditt, when not on the bench with foul trouble, was effective down low. Tyrese Hunter spent the night in Xavier’s pockets, and the team looked deep off the bench. The Cyclones were adequate at protecting the ball themselves, and while they struggled on the boards, their offense was outrageously efficient.
Tonight’s a lot tougher. Memphis is, by a lot of accounts, a top-ten team. They do play somewhat recklessly on offense, though, and they aren’t the most efficient shooters, so if Iowa State’s guys can play within themselves while still putting pressure on the Tigers’ guards, they might be able to make it a game.
Regardless, good trip to New York for the Cyclones.
Duke’s Turn Against Gonzaga
One of the main plots of the college basketball season so far has been different alleged contenders getting swatted away by Gonzaga like the slowest gnats you’ve ever seen. Tonight, it’s Duke’s turn to give the Zags a shot. Game’s at 10:30 PM EST on ESPN.
Atlantis
Over in the Bahamas, Michigan State’s having a good week and plays Baylor in the early slot for the Atlantis title. The Spartans may have gotten some help yesterday against UConn, but they’ve still looked better than we thought they might after that opening-night loss to Kansas. Tom Izzo’s team seems to be fine. Not in Purdue’s echelon, but fine.
Elsewhere in the bracket, Loyola missed two good opportunities at big wins, and there aren’t a lot left on their schedule, leaving them in a familiar bracketological place for good mid-majors, which is one where they can’t afford many mistakes at all in conference play. The MVC has a little bit of depth, but it also has a few anchors, and that word isn’t a good thing in this context.
Maui
In other island news, the Vegas Maui Invitational turned into not just a rock fight but an outright rock festival, with Wisconsin eventually emerging on top. The biggest takeaways, really, were that Oregon probably isn’t that good, that Texas A&M is competitive, and that Notre Dame has plenty of work to do. Houston might still be pretty darn good, by the way. But they sure have some memorable terrible games.
Florida? (Pitino Section)
I’m not positive where the ESPN Events Invitational is being held, and I’m curious if they couldn’t get a sponsor, as has been speculated elsewhere on this site. Anyway, this has turned into one of the more interesting tournaments of the week, especially with Iona beating Alabama yesterday.
It wouldn’t be all that surprising to see Iona ranked this coming week, especially if they upset Belmont today. They’re still just 126th in KenPom, though, and KenPom’s seen a lot of them.
Basically, the deal with Iona is that yesterday was hugely impressive and deserves its credit, but we still don’t have reason to think this is a Sweet Sixteen contender any more than we should think that about Chattanooga or Weber State. The Gaels clearly are capable of being a very good, team, though. Especially when considering they only went 4-of-21 from deep yesterday.
The downside of Iona doing what they did is that we won’t get to see Kansas play the Crimson Tide on Sunday in the championship. But we can endure that for a little Rick Pitino intrigue.
This Weekend’s College Football
I wrote a lot about this weekend on Wednesday, but the basic script is that we’ve got elimination games in Ann Arbor and Stillwater while Georgia, Alabama, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame try to hold off disaster and impress everyone as multi-score favorites. Cincinnati’s at the most risk of those four, playing at East Carolina this afternoon.
There are great games outside the playoff race, too, and a lot of them have bearing on conference championships. We’ve got every tiebreaker scenario here.
Brock Purdy’s Senior Day, the Future of Iowa State Football
It’s Senior Day in Ames for an incredible class, and while Purdy’s getting the attention, and deserves a lot of attention, Charlie Kolar and Mike Rose arguably deserve more, as has probably always been the case. I love Purdy, and this isn’t his fault, but he’s gotten more credit than he deserves for a couple years now, and for as fondly as he and this era will be remembered, there’s a justifiable what-might-have-been element here, especially with the Big 12 as open as it’s been this season. Winning a Fiesta Bowl is a huge accomplishment. It’s just that…they could’ve done more.
The game’s this afternoon against TCU, Iowa State’s a sizable favorite, and should they win, the Cyclones should be headed to either the Cheez-It Bowl or the Texas Bowl, which actually outrank the Liberty Bowl even if they feel disappointing. Basically, if a Big 12 team makes the playoff, Iowa State gets to go to the Cheez-It Bowl. If one doesn’t, it’s likely the Texas Bowl. All of that is if they win. Which isn’t guaranteed, but does appear likely. Hopefully it’s an easy win and a feel-good day. This senior class absolutely deserves that.
While we’re zoomed out a bit on Iowa State, it’s probably worth checking in on Matt Campbell. There are three huge jobs available: USC, LSU, and Florida. None seem like the prototypical fit for Campbell, who’s made his mark overachieving with teams in the heartland. That said, all are in a position to offer him a ton of money, and none of their coaching searches are going particularly well right now. The word has always been that out of the premier jobs, Campbell would prefer one in the Midwest, but barring a big surprise in South Bend or Ann Arbor, none appears poised to open particularly soon (and Campbell may have shot down Michigan last year, or at least appeared uninterested enough that they didn’t go to the trouble of trying to figure it out).
If Campbell leaves, it’s a gut punch. If he stays, though, the future isn’t exactly rosy. The Big 12 restocked with some good football programs, most currently those of BYU and Cincinnati, either of which could be capable of taking over Oklahoma’s role atop the league. Iowa State still hasn’t turned the corner with recruiting, and has actually taken a step back this year. Campbell develops guys as well as anyone in the country, but part of why it wasn’t a certainty this year that ISU would be Texas Tech or West Virginia (or Kansas State, whom they did beat) is that they can’t out-talent anyone in the conference not named Kansas. There’s a script where Iowa State becomes the king of the Big 12, making the playoff routinely when it expands to twelve teams. There’s also a script where the Cyclones, even if Campbell stays, remain mediocre, inhibited by their ceiling.
This last part isn’t to say anyone should hope on Campbell leaving. He is far and away Iowa State’s best hope, and ratings systems suggest this was a top-ten team that played their worst at the worst possible times. But the program, as it stands right now, seems to have a ceiling, and it’s probably something like what we’ve seen these last sixteen months: You can win eighteen games over two seasons, but getting more than that is going to be excruciatingly difficult in a power conference.
Wade Davis Retired
Wade Davis retired the other day, so a little note reminding everyone that the Cubs would not have won the 2017 NLDS if not for his heroics. What a series that was, and what a role he played in it. The last stand, as it turned out, for that core. Wild. Anyway, wanted to give it some attention since he’s a sneaky big part of recent Cubs history.
Viewing Schedule
Today, Michigan State/Baylor’s interesting on the basketball court, as are a handful of other games leading up to Duke/Gonzaga (including Iowa State/Memphis, though again…that might not be very fun). Cincinnati/East Carolina deserves a lot of attention, and Iowa/Nebraska should be a good game.
Tomorrow, the football action’s thickest in the noon hour, with Ohio State and Michigan going at it, and then in primetime, when we get Bedlam. Wisconsin/Minnesota’s a game of consequence in the afternoon, and BYU/USC should be good after dark. On Sunday, that whole ESPN Events Invitational should supply some solid basketball if you aren’t into the NFL at the moment.
Enjoy the weekend. Go Cyclones. See you on Monday.
