Our preview of college football’s sixth week is available here, so if you’re looking for more than Iowa State, that’s where it is. Now, for Iowa State, some quick MLB playoff thoughts, and a little housekeeping:
Iowa State vs. Kansas State
The Cyclones don’t need this win, but ‘want’ seems to understate the importance. Iowa State’s coming off two straight losses to open conference play, and each was a game they should have won. Lose this, and they’re in danger of missing a bowl game. Win it, and the most optimistic of optimists can see a path to the Big 12 title game. Such is life in the early weeks of the Big 12 season.
K-State’s notoriety lies in Adrian Martinez, the Nebraska transfer representing the team under center. Its strength, though, lies in its defense. The offense has done good work—especially on the ground, where they’re fifth in the FBS in yards per rush attempt, trailing a pretty good crew in TCU, Alabama, Ohio State, and Oregon—but it’s the defense that Iowa State needs to worry about. Kansas State’s raw numbers aren’t sensational, but they take the ball away a lot, and as one of the worse teams nationally when it comes to protecting the ball, this spells trouble for ISU if trend combines with trend.
The hope with turnovers is that there’s some unsustainable luck happening, but I’m skeptical on that because it’s the only place K-State stands out, and SP+ has the defense rated the 15th-best nationally. That strength has to come from somewhere. How does Iowa State counteract it? On one side, protecting the ball is a good thing, but on the other, as we’ve said before, there’s value to playing ahead. The defense can help Hunter Dekkers by keeping Kansas State off the board early. Eventually, and at points, yes, Dekkers is going to need to make plays, and that’s going to require taking risks, but scripts like the one against even Iowa are more favorable than what happened when Baylor came to town.
So, it’s more of the same: A winnable game against a solid opponent, with the pressure on Iowa State’s defense to step up and take the heat off Iowa State’s young, talented quarterback, who leads a suspect but high-potential offense. We spin the wheel again. Here’s hoping it lands on a victory.
Holy Bieber
Thoughts on each playoff game yesterday:
Cleveland 2, Tampa Bay 1
This was just about a perfect playoff game. There was a little bit of back-and-forth, but it was mostly a pitcher’s duel—a pitcher’s duel Shane Bieber roundly won. Eight strikeouts, one walk, one home run, seven and two-thirds innings pitched. That’s quite the outing. Opposite him, Shane McClanahan was good, and him stretching himself seven innings was big for the Rays bullpen, which has its work cut out for it today behind low-pitch-cap Tyler Glasnow, but Bieber stole the show, even in a game José Ramírez won with that sixth-inning home run. Selfishly, I hope a little bit that the Rays win today, because this has the ingredients of a great series, and a Game 3 on Sunday would be a blast.
Philadelphia 6, St. Louis 3
Well, Ryan Helsley’s probably not going to pitch today, so the Phils took care of that.
Helsley’s meltdown may have cut Juan Yepez out of Cardinals lore, but it did open the door for Yadier Molina to play hero in the 9th, as Zach Eflin toed the line on a meltdown of his own. In the end, Eflin struck out Molina, the Phillies pulled it out, their bullpen is as fresh as they could ask, and Aaron Nola gives them a great opportunity to close the series out late tonight. They were the better team on paper, but the narrative disagreed. This doesn’t prove either right or wrong—it’s only one game—but if the Phillies do win this series, I’m curious how much the narrative will shift things like betting markets in the NLDS. That’s getting ahead of myself, though.
Seattle 4, Toronto 0
That’s how you open a series. Also, does Cal Raleigh only hit meaningful home runs? Not as in, Are all Cal Raleigh’s home runs meaningful. What I mean is: Does Cal Raleigh do anything but hit meaningful home runs?
It’s fun when a team goes all in, and it’s fun when the guy who signified the start of the all-in push, Eugenio Suárez in this case, comes through, and it’s also fun when the guy who signaled that the all-in push worked, Luis Castillo in this case, also comes through. Castillo shut down one of the best lineups in the game. Alek Manoah was fine, but he wasn’t enough. Castillo was phenomenal. Now, the Mariners get a chance at playing at least one home playoff game against the most hated team in their division. What a life.
San Diego 7, New York (NL) 1
I do love Max Scherzer, but holy crap, did that go badly. And on the other side, how about ol’ Yu Darvish?
There’s a lot to say about Scherzer’s outing, and we’re gonna say a little of it here:
- The Padres struck out seven times against the Mets’ bullpen while only sending 15 batters to the plate. They struck out only four times against Scherzer while sending 21 batters to the plate.
- The Mets have to start Jacob deGrom now, and they probably would have done that anyway, but if his blister is an issue at all, this series is likely over. That’s not the environment anyone wants, especially not this early in the playoffs.
- Scherzer only threw eighty pitches, and if I was feeling saucy, I’d say that means he’s probably going to try to force his way into Game 3 instead of letting the Mets lean on Edwin Díaz. An annual tradition that worked one time and was much more necessary then than anytime else.
There is also, though, a lot to say about Josh Bell—the key piece in the Juan Soto trade, some might jest; and Trent Grisham, of all people; and Jurickson Profar, who quietly was a 2.5-fWAR player this year. And, you know, Manny Machado. And Darvish. And Ha-Seong Kim. As with the Mariners, it’s fun when a team goes for it and the specific players with whom the team went for it show up big in October.
Man, playoff baseball is fun.
Housekeeping
Holy hell, are we behind. No college football futures this week, which might be good, since we need to get conference tiebreakers into our model. We do plan on running that model overnight tonight and having a recap up in the morning, plus some notes—Packers fans, that’s where those will be—and bets, which will include NASCAR but revolve around the MLB Playoffs, like almost all our bets do right now. ‘Tis the season. That’s what they say, right?
**
Viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:
MLB Playoffs
- 12:07 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Cleveland, Glasnow vs. McKenzie (ESPN2)
- 4:07 PM EDT: Seattle @ Toronto, Ray vs. Gausman (ESPN)
- 7:37 PM EDT: San Diego @ New York (NL), Snell vs. deGrom (ESPN)
- 8:37 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ St. Louis, Nola vs. Mikolas (ESPN2)
College Football (of interest, or time slot significance)
- 12:00 PM EDT: Tennessee @ LSU (ESPN)
- 12:00 PM EDT: TCU @ Kansas (FS1)
- 12:00 PM EDT: Texas vs. Oklahoma (ABC)
- 12:00 PM EDT: Michigan @ Indiana (FOX)
- 12:00 PM EDT: Arkansas @ Mississippi State (SECN)
- 12:00 PM EDT: Purdue @ Mayland (BTN)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Utah @ UCLA (FOX)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (FS1)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Auburn @ Georgia (CBS)
- 4:00 PM EDT: North Carolina @ Miami (ESPN2)
- 4:00 PM EDT: Ohio State @ Michigan State (ABC)
- 4:00 PM EDT: Mississippi @ Vanderbilt (SECN)
- 7:00 PM EDT: James Madison @ Arkansas State (NFLN)
- 7:30 PM EDT: Kansas State @ Iowa State (ESPNU)
- 7:30 PM EDT: South Carolina @ Kentucky (SECN)
- 7:30 PM EDT: BYU vs. Notre Dame (NBC)
- 7:30 PM EDT: Washington State @ USC (FOX)
- 7:30 PM EDT: Clemson @ Boston College (ABC)
- 7:30 PM EDT: Iowa @ Illinois (BTN)
- 7:30 PM EDT: Army @ Wake Forest (ESPN3)
- 8:00 PM EDT: Florida State @ NC State (ACCN)
- 8:00 PM EDT: Texas A&M @ Alabama (CBS)
- 8:00 PM EDT: Coastal Carolina @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPN+)
- 9:00 PM EDT: Oregon @ Arizona (P12N)
- 11:00 PM EDT: Oregon State @ Stanford (ESPN)
Motorsports (that we cover)
- 1:00 AM EDT: Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix (ESPN)
