At the beginning of the NCAA Tournament, five of the twelve best teams, by KenPom, were placed into the West Region. These five did not include Arkansas, who was ranked 20th despite the theoretical average for an 8-seed being 30.5th.
This is not a complaint. The NCAA Tournament seed list isn’t built purely on how good teams are on the day the tournament begins. It’s built on accomplishment (good), and it’s built on perception (meh), and it gets sorted into regions based on a convoluted series of geographic interests and avoidance of rematches (good).
What this is, instead, is an acknowledgment that UCLA and Gonzaga are two of the six or seven best teams in the country, and they played a Sweet Sixteen game last night, and now Gonzaga will play UConn, who is—on paper—even better.
Being the 1-seed, Kansas was the face of this lineup going in. Kansas was the one who was staring down UCLA, and UConn, and Gonzaga, and Saint Mary’s, and even potentially Arkansas in the second round (as, very consequentially, did come to pass). Kansas “had” the tough region. That’s how we talk about the bracket—we observe each region through the lens of its 1-seed. This made things a little ironic, because last year, Kansas had one of the easiest paths to a national championship in history. Kansas, in 2022, didn’t play a single team in the NCAA Tournament who finished the season in the KenPom top nine. Villanova was the best, and Villanova finished tenth. That isn’t true of any other champion in the KenPom era, which stretches back to 2002.
This isn’t a good or a bad thing about the tournament. College football, which currently has the best season/playoff format of any sport when it comes to combining drama with finding the true champion, is infamous for having variably difficult paths. Making the playoff out of the ACC? Compared to making the playoff out of the SEC? An entirely different ballgame. Variable paths are fine and well and good, and not some problem that needs to be solved. They do, though, result in early heartbreak for teams who are better than the 9th-16th best in the country. Such is life, this year, for UCLA.
The Case Against Drew Timme
When I first became familiar with Drew Timme, I liked him. He was good, he was fun, I got a kick out of the guy. The more I got to watch him play, the more unlikable he became. Part of this is the fawning media, the same crew that adored Coach K and is, at its median, so separate from the common fan that they not only can’t comprehend fans’ affinities but are actively offended by said affinities. “How can you not like Drew Timme?” they ask, not noticing that he grades out terribly on defense (check EvanMiya, that’s statistics, not grumping), partially because he doesn’t seem to take conference play seriously (that’s grumping). Being told repeatedly that he’s the best player in the country? Or in the conversation to be the best player in the country? Insulting, frankly. Drew Timme is a great offensive player, great enough offensively to make him a deserving All-American in some capacity. But first team? Are we sure about that?
Much like how Brock Cunningham’s attendance of an elite high school makes his dirty moments look dirtier, Timme’s endless self-promotion looks worse coming from a guy who could be using that energy making stops in the post. Gonzaga’s defense locked in last night. But how much of that, even, was Timme?
To be clear on all of this: This is only as an athlete. I don’t dislike Timme as a person. Sports hate and personal hate are different entities. (Similarly, I don’t dislike Cunningham as a person, or even as a player—I just find his identity incongruous with him going to Westlake.) But I wanted Jaime Jaquez to beat him. I’m sad he didn’t. Credit to Timme, of course. What a game by Timme. What play calling by Mark Few. What a shot by Julian Strawther. But Timme, yes. Timme did everything Gonzaga needed him to do, and he did it until—judging by how his legs looked on that last free throw—he couldn’t do it anymore. A begrudging tip of the hat. I’ll miss watching UCLA.
On the other games, the quick thoughts are:
- What else can be said about Markquis Nowell? I guess the Big 12 angle is that he gives the league a 50/50 shot at having a team in the Final Four even if Texas goes down, and that’s without having to play the Houston’s–joining–next–year card. That was one of the best individual games I’ve ever seen in college basketball, and with his ankle clearly bothering him? Stunning. I’m concerned about the ankle for Kansas State’s sake, and for Nowell’s, and I wonder if it had something to do with his occasional attempts at the deep, deep threes (he gave his team a shot at second chance points with those, and he saved his legs for the next possession while giving him a short trip up the floor), but maybe it’s completely fine. By overtime, it looked like it was.
- Holy UConn. They’re still probably more vulnerable than others to having a really bad night, but it’s been so long since they’ve had one, and the number of chances to have one is now down to three. I don’t think all that highly of Dan Hurley, but maybe that should be reassessed. This team is really, really good. (KenPom had it right again.)
- Tennessee had FAU put away in the first half if they just had some sort of offense to rely upon. Even while visually dominating the game, they never had control on the scoreboard, and when FAU got its legs under it, that spelled doom for the Vols. Good riddance. Hoot hoot.
On tonight’s games, here’s where my head is, for whatever it’s worth:
- I would think Creighton won’t be vulnerable to Princeton in the same way Arizona was (forget Mizzou, Mizzou was a fun team but not particularly good), which is to say I think Creighton is in a better headspace at pretty much all times than Arizona was. I don’t have a great grasp on the Jays—they’ve had a weird season—but this game shouldn’t be an issue for them.
- San Diego State could be a huge issue for Alabama. Brian Dutcher and his staff clearly know defense, and what Alabama’s done all year when in trouble has been to turn to Brandon Miller. Can Dutcher pull off the double feat of putting Alabama in trouble and then stopping Miller? I don’t know, but he’s got to be among those with the best shot. (Also, what’s the deal with Miller’s groin?)
- Miami is terrifying because of last year, but the hope if you’re Houston has to be that you can simply overpower them. It might not be pretty, but methodical demolition is the goal. The guards for Miami are going to try to do a lot, but if Houston’s offense can just stay pointed at the hoop, they should be able to keep up even if they have trouble on the other end.
- Xavier’s good enough and plays such great offense that they can probably beat anybody, but they do feel more like a Cinderella at this moment than a team that swept UConn and finished second in a good Big East. It feels like a trap for Texas, but the moment’s also such a big one for Texas that it’s hard to picture them being truly trapped. Also: I know Rodney Terry probably isn’t a great idea long-term in Austin, but he’s been the best in-season coach these guys have had in years. That should matter for single must-win games.
Mills to Wichita, Shrewsberry to South Bend
Two coaching changes we haven’t mentioned (I’m sure there are others, but these we’re particularly late on): Paul Mills is jumping from Oral Roberts to Wichita State, Micah Shrewsberry is jumping from Penn State to Notre Dame.
The Shrewsberry hire, as many have said, is a great one for Notre Dame and a harsh reminder for Penn State of where their program stands. This is through Penn State’s own doing, of course—that arena doesn’t belong in the Big Ten—but it has to sting.
Mills is interesting because so much of his Oral Roberts success came thanks to Max Abmas, but Oral Roberts was better than Wichita State this year with fewer resources, so basic logic would say this makes a ton of sense for the Shockers.
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We’ll have thoughts on the games throughout the weekend, and we’ll be back with fuller notes on Monday. One last thought, I guess: FAU’s only been in Division I since 1993, which isn’t much longer than Utah Valley over in the NIT, who’s been getting some attention from us for their own NCAA newness. Startup schools, doing big things. It’s fun how possible that is in college sports.
