We have to start with Rutgers, but to avoid giving them that satisfaction, we’re going to start with Illinois.
I Was Wrong: Illinois Edition
For a long time, I included Illinois as a Possibility in our national championship categories. Illinois, I reasoned, had been dealt a bad hand with injuries, and that MLK Day game between the full-strength Illini and Purdue was electric. The main problem with this logic was that it went on too long. Other problems were that 1) Purdue didn’t turn out to be all that good and 2) Andre Curbelo hasn’t played that well since MLK Day. I took too long to stop including Illinois, I never addressed it out loud, I’m sorry.
I Was Wrong: Rutgers Edition
This one is both easier and harder. Easier, because everyone was wrong except the most delusional of Rutgers-fan prophets. Harder, because they’re a really weird tournament case now, and I remain skeptical. They’re only 68th in KenPom still, but they’ve risen about as fast as a team can rise over these last four games, and their 2-3 remaining regular season projection makes sense, but it’s easy to see how they could top it. They’re playing great basketball against solid competition. If they play as well as they’ve played these last two weeks, they’ll go 4-1 (Purdue isn’t bad, even if they’re not “all that good”). That would put them in the tournament. 1-4? Probably not in, barring some sizable activity in Indianapolis. 2-3? I really don’t know. My guess is that our model will say no tomorrow, but that Bracket Matrix will soon say yes. It’s a narrative situation, at some level, as it was in the case of 2020 UCLA, and a situation of the importance of recent results, which is a tricky thing to put in a model like ours.
Another Baylor Wreck by Tech
Texas Tech, as expected, took down Baylor last night, and it brings up a big question regarding the Bears: Will Baylor’s floor still be in Possibility territory when they find it? Or will they fall to a spot nearer to the Tennessees and Dukes of the world? (Yes, we’re taking Duke out of the Possibility category, as promised. We’re leaving Houston and Villanova in, though.) Could they return to being a Contender? We don’t know. There’s a lot of uncertainty, and there’s also a little time for them to figure it out, meaning we aren’t just guessing at what they are now but are waiting to see what they’ll be.
In the meantime, I would never want to play Texas Tech. I also think they’d need a favorable draw or a big stroke of luck to make the Final Four.
Tonight’s Important Games
Arizona’s the only Contender in action, hosting Oregon State at 7:30 PM EST on Pac-12 Networks. Houston’s the only Possibility, trying to get back on track at home against UCF at 9:00 PM EST on ESPN2. Neither is likely to be all that compelling, though if UCF/Houston is compelling, it’ll be very compelling.
Michigan goes to Iowa at 7:00 on ESPN, and that’s a key one for Michigan’s still-bubbly résumé. They can afford to lose, but a win would earn them some much-needed breathing room. Iowa, meanwhile, has a lot to play for in the seeding department, both in the NCAA Tournament and, sooner, in Indy.
Saint Mary’s hosts San Francisco, and both teams should be in the tournament but the winner’s security will rise substantially. That’s at 10:00, but it’s only online (through the WCC streaming service) or on NBC Sports Bay Area.
Finally, Washington State goes to UCLA. Washington State has the potential to make a run—after this Los Angeles trip, they should be favored in their last five, and a 5-2 finish from here would give them a clear shot at Arizona in the Pac-12 semifinals—but they were in much better position before dropping those two to ASU and Oregon. They weren’t in our NIT projection on Monday, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make the NCAA Tournament, if you want an idea of the uncertainty here. Winning tonight would be a résumé-changer. It’s also unlikely. 11:00, FS1.
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Viewing schedule, then, goes Michigan/Iowa, UCF/Houston (maybe watching some NASCAR if it isn’t that close), Washington State/UCLA. Minnesota plays Penn State earlier in the day (4:00 PM EST) on Big Ten Network and Towson goes to UNC-Wilmington at 6:00 on CBSSN if you’re looking for earlier watches. Not a bad Thursday.
