How much did the postponement of Game 3 change the World Series picture? We can measure that.
All postseason, we’ve been looking at two of FanGraphs’s models, plus the implications of betting markets, to see where series probabilities lie. Here’s where things stood yesterday:
- Depth Charts: 52.7% Astros
- ZiPS: 56.0% Astros
- Betting Markets: 61.5% Astros
The two projection systems are hard to take anything from. ZiPS doesn’t appear to have updated its pitcher matchups (or FanGraphs didn’t get them posted), Depth Charts may have shifted its projected innings distribution around a little bit but it’s hard to know. In betting markets, though, the Astros are up to…61.8%. So, nothing much changed.
Practically speaking, what we now have happening is the Phillies pivoting to Ranger Suárez, a comparable option to Noah Syndergaard, and then the Game 1 and Game 2 starters for both teams assumedly moving up to cover Games 4 and 5, except…oh. Oh, never mind. No wonder Szymborski didn’t update ZiPS.
Based on what everyone’s saying (and I wonder if this will change), the new matchups are as follows:
- Game 3: McCullers vs. Suárez
- Game 4: Javier vs. Nola
- Game 5: Verlander vs. Syndergaard
- Game 6: Valdez vs. Wheeler
- Game 7: McCullers vs. Suárez
So, the Astros are giving everyone an extra day of rest, and the Phillies are moving Aaron Nola up to start on normal rest but giving Zack Wheeler an extra day of rest and then starting Suárez on normal rest where they were going to start Syndergaard? I get why the market didn’t move much. Tomorrow looks better for Philly than it did, Game 5 looks better for Houston, after that it’s effectively the same. But. Things happen, and extra innings specifically happen, and I don’t know if Dusty Baker will get aggressive, but I’d be surprised if Rob Thomson doesn’t get aggressive if the opportunity’s there. Ultimately? We’re still looking at Aaron Nola on three days’ rest in Game 7 if we get there, whether he starts or not. And with him more equipped for that kind of thing health-wise than Wheeler, it’s adding up why the Phillies flipped the two and had Nola start Game 1.
I will say: If the Phillies win tonight and get to go into a Nola vs. Javier matchup in Game 4, that is a good path to putting the Astros on the ropes, and on the other side, Game 4 becomes more important to win if the Phillies lose tonight than it previously was, with Verlander vs. Syndergaard looming in Game 5. The switch doesn’t change the overall probabilities much, but it does change the script, and possibly some leverage equations in certain scenarios.
The First CFP Rankings
They come out tonight, here’s our preview, not much to add beyond that except that in digging through this I noticed that by our model’s measure, the committee (based on its precedent) should view Notre Dame as having the best loss in the country, two of the best five wins in the country, and two extremely bad losses. A worst loss that’s worse than anyone else’s in the top 40. A second-worst loss that’s worse than anyone else’s in the top 70. The team’s set up to be an agent of chaos, with Clemson and USC both still on the schedule, but chaos can work in all sorts of ways.
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Viewing schedule:
- 7:00 PM EDT: College Football Playoff Rankings Release (ESPN)
- 8:03 PM EDT: Houston @ Philadelphia – Game 3, McCullers vs. Suárez (FOX)
