Northwestern held off Indiana last night in the kind of environment that materializes when a college basketball program is newly competitive. There’s a different atmosphere in the air on these nights. It’s not the same as Assembly Hall or Hilton Coliseum or the Kennel, up in Spokane. There’s more of a nervousness about it, and more of a happiness. It’s new. It’s simply new. And with Welsh-Ryan Arena getting that big renovation only a few years ago, one year after the long-missed tournament trip, it was one of the first huge games ever held on the current court. The biggest ever, arguably, bigger even than Sunday’s visit from Purdue, a game played right before the Super Bowl and before Northwestern had made itself into such a likely NCAA Tournament team.
Welsh-Ryan Arena is rocking anew, and Northwestern is good anew, and plenty of people will talk about what Chris Collins is getting right, and that is the absolute wrong question. It’s not about what Chris Collins is getting right. It’s about how in the hell this team hasn’t been good before.
There are plenty of bad college basketball situations out there, teams in a terrible spot with regard to competing in their own conference. I would not want to coach basketball at Washington, for example, overshadowed locally by little Gonzaga and on display in front of a student body distracted by an enjoyable city. I would similarly not want to coach basketball at Boston College, even if it’s in more stereotypical basketball country and it’s a pain in the ass to get into Boston from Chestnut Hill. In both of those locations, though, and in worse locations I’m forgetting, teams have been fine at times, and even good. Hell, Cal’s made the tournament nine times this century, and right now Cal men’s basketball might be the poster child for an athletic program its school does not want to have.
The point is, it’s not that hard to have a good year here and there if you play in a power conference. You’re always on TV, you’re always playing in cities where your alums live, you have enough revenue to justifiably enjoy nice facilities. This isn’t football, where the scope of what’s necessary to be good and the threshold at which a team is acknowledged as good (top ten, rather than top 45) is so massive that the buy-in necessary to climb the hill is immense. This is men’s college basketball. There’s a reason so many athletic departments invest most heavily in the men’s game. The return on investment is highest here, with significant NCAA Tournament money and exposure on the table and the game requiring some of the least equipment and fewest scholarships of any Division I sport.
We should not be impressed that Northwestern is probably going to make its second NCAA Tournament ever. We should be bewildered that it hasn’t happened more often. How in the hell does a team in the Big Ten manage to be this consistently bad at basketball? How did Bill Carmody making four straight NIT’s qualify as unprecedented success? I don’t have an explanation. I don’t understand it. It is unconscionable that Northwestern is so consistently bad. It’s almost as if they’ve been trying to stink.
Tennessee Got What They Needed
We haven’t done categories in a while, because frankly, I don’t know what to make of the top of college basketball. Tennessee beat Alabama last night, and it showed some Tide vulnerability, but none we didn’t already know was there. Let’s go through the KenPom top 16 (so Virginia can be our line, because they’re probably the last on the list anyone is seriously talking about as a championship threat):
1. Houston
Houston’s offense has been lethally efficient lately, in the way where it’s been lethal to Houston’s opponents. Still, they haven’t played a tournament team since December, and we still don’t know if they can show up offensively with the consistency necessary to win those six straight games, especially in these low-tempo, higher-randomness dog fights they create. They’re the best team in the country. That is hardly a debate. But are they the tournament favorites?
2. Alabama
Alabama’s tough because their flaws are so significant, and their flaws are so clear, but their strengths are outrageously strong. Still…a lot has been made about Tennessee’s ridiculous numbers with three-point defense. 24.7% from opponents, the logic goes, is unsustainable. Well, you know who comes behind them? Alabama, at 26.3%. If you’re thinking what I’m thinking, yes, the SEC is the worst three-point shooting league in the country in conference games. Is this because of defenses like Tennessee’s and Alabama’s? Or is it because of offenses like Auburn’s and Mississippi State’s? Comically, Houston has the next-best three-point D after Alabama. God help us.
3. UCLA
This is my answer when asked, and I’m feeling close to the best I’ve felt about it lately because of the return of Amari Bailey. It’s not that Bailey’s an incredible player. He’s a very good freshman, but this isn’t about him specifically. It’s that Bailey gives UCLA that much more depth, and they sorely need depth. They need guys. They run a thin rotation. It’s not the worst recipe for March—if those guys are clicking, you’ll have a good time, and if one of your best players gets hurt you’re in trouble regardless of how many players are in your rotation—but it makes foul trouble a huge risk. Add to that UCLA’s weird numbers against tournament teams (Maryland remains their best win, and they don’t have many) and they’re tougher to gauge than teams from deeper conferences.
4. Tennessee
This offense is inconsistent and at its best it’s not that good. Could beat anybody, could lose to a lot of teams. Possibly undervalued because the losses have been so narrow, but I’m not going to bat for them right now.
5. Purdue
Right there with UCLA as a believable answer, though the same flaws that plague Alabama—inexperience and turnovers—are there for Purdue. Zach Edey is great, but he’s a weird guy to picture leading a team all the way through March. Also, the Big Ten is good, but it doesn’t have another top dog. People as smart as John Fanta are saying Northwestern is the second-best team in the Big Ten. That’s a low second ceiling for a league.
6. UConn
Honestly, maybe. They haven’t done it on the road, but the NCAA Tournament’s played on neutral courts, and like Tennessee, their losses have been close. The guard play just isn’t there, though. Again. So many good teams turning the ball over like crazy. I don’t know what to think.
7. Saint Mary’s
Good team? Yes. Championship quality? That’s very hard to believe. It’s not like they’re 26–1 right now. They’ve lost five games. Three of them to teams who probably won’t make the NIT. They’ve lost to more teams below NIT quality than they’ve beaten teams of NCAA Tournament at-large quality. This is one of those rankings that comes from taking care of business and being consistent, but their ceiling just isn’t that high. Not for six games.
8. Kansas
Like UConn, we’re coming back to Kansas. We still have concerns about their bench, but if they get a path like last year’s, they’re good enough to be responsibly believed in.
9. Texas
Maybe. It’s hard to pin down the reason why the answer should be no with these guys, which is a sign that narrative is dictating itself here. Tradition, basically. Really, I think the knock against Texas is that their best performances haven’t been that good. Worse than UConn’s best, and by a lot.
10. Baylor
The offense is so much fun and things are clicking again, but the defense is the worst of any team we’ve mentioned so far and of any we will mention besides Gonzaga. You want both offense and defense, partially because one alone can only get you so far, partially so you have a chance of one picking up the other if the other has a bad game.
11. Creighton
Creighton’s defense grades out better than its offense, which is flabbergasting. This is a really good team, and it’s pretty well-rounded, and over the conference season it’s hard to find a team who’s played better. They do lack strong road wins—their best came against Seton Hall—but if nobody else catches on, there might at least be value here in a few weeks.
12. Marquette
This is kind of the opposite situation to Creighton’s. They don’t have a well-rounded team, and the spotlight’s on them. They’re a great story, and they’re a lot of fun, but they’re Baylor Lite. Which makes them a less talented Gonzaga.
13. Arizona
Arizona’s defense has gotten better, and they have some absolute dudes. Even Kerr Kriisa, who is a nut, wouldn’t look out of place in a national championship game. The turnovers, though…holy hell, the turnovers. Like UCLA, they’ve been playing in the dark a little bit.
14. Gonzaga
The talent is there, but it’s not all there. That’s the secret with Gonzaga which Iowa State fans know too well. Rasir Bolton is a good player, but he isn’t going to win you a national championship in a starting role. Maybe there’s some value, but the absence of defense (Drew Timme is a massive defensive liability, as we’ve discussed before) and the questionability of these guards make it hard to buy in. I’d take a healthy TCU over Gonzaga in a heartbeat.
15. Iowa State
No.
16. Virginia
The most common Virginia argument banks on the ACC being undervalued by numbers that have an excellent historic track record, but it’s not the best Virginia argument. The best Virginia argument is that this team isn’t explosive offensively but is very competent. They’ve scored a point per possession in every game this year but two, and those two were in December, against James Madison and Miami. They scored against Houston. They scored in their other two losses. They don’t blast teams, and that is concerning, but they’re very consistent, which creates some hope. I’m seeing them tied for eleventh in futures odds (trailing Houston, Purdue, Alabama, Kansas, UCLA, Baylor, Arizona, UConn, Tennessee, and Indiana, disproving my rationale above about serious championship talk). They might be more believable than that (think of Villanova last year, to an extent).
Iowa State Bounces Back
It was a win Iowa State absolutely should have gotten, with Mike Miles still out and Eddie Lampkin a husk of himself (just sit the guy, Jamie Dixon, this is far too sad for all of us who love Eddie Lampkin, which I assume is all of us). It was a win Iowa State got, though, and that’s big. It’s better than the alternative. With Caleb Grill riding pine after losing his head down the stretch this weekend (I would assume Grill will be back and will be a big deal once again and that resting his back had something to do with his minutes), Aljaž Kunc took on a bigger offensive role, and it was a great recipe. Kunc is a very good shooter. Comparable to Grill on his career, albeit with fewer massive games. Much better than Gabe Kalscheur or Jaren Holmes. Aljaž Kunc is a man you want taking shots.
It doesn’t get easy from here for the Cyclones, which is part of what made the victory so important. ISU goes to Kansas State this weekend and then plays in Austin on Tuesday. With the win, they’re 8–5 in the Big 12, so dropping to a losing conference record is no longer on the table. There’s no realistic path towards winning the league, even sitting a game out of first place, but they’re in a great spot to avoid having to face Kansas, Texas, or Baylor in their first game in Kansas City, even if they don’t win either of these next two. They’re free plays.
(Shoutout to David Carr, by the way, for the big win in Columbia. Tough loss for the team, but nice to see Carr get some headlines.)
Another Blow for Washington
Not only does the Big Ten not want Washington (who badly wants to join the Big Ten), but Ohio State just ponied up half a million dollars to cancel games against the Huskies in 2024 and 2025. This leaves Washington scrambling to find an opponent to play each of those years, and they’re already playing an FCS school each season, meaning they almost definitely have to find a Group of Five team to play when a lot of those are already taken.
Why is Ohio State doing this? It would be funny if there was some beef between the Buckeyes and Seattle, but it’s really because Ohio State doesn’t know what the new Big Ten schedule is going to look like and probably rightfully assumes they’ll be asked to play a marquee game in Los Angeles one or both of those years and doesn’t want to fly to the West Coast and back twice in one season. Also, the expanded playoff means playing a challenging nonconference schedule has less benefit than it did. For a team like Michigan this year, there was legitimate fear of being left out at 11–1 (had they gotten there) because they scheduled cupcakes in nonconference. That won’t be an issue once expansion hits. At 10–2? Yeah, sure. But if Ohio State’s 10–2, they don’t care about making the playoff. They’re a program that’s focused on winning it all.
Anyway, really sucks for Washington, but the Huskies could also respond to this situation in part by joining the Big 12, and they aren’t doing that (yet). When you stay on board a sinking ship, you can’t complain about your suitcase getting wet.
**
What’s happening tonight:
College Basketball (the big one)
- 6:30 PM EST: Purdue @ Maryland (BTN)
College Basketball (the good ones)
- 7:00 PM EST: Florida Atlantic @ Middle Tennessee State (CBSSN)
- 9:00 PM EST: Ohio State @ Iowa (ESPN2)
- 10:00 PM EST: Utah @ Arizona (P12N)
- 11:00 PM EST: Gonzaga @ Loyola Marymount (CBSSN)
College Basketball (other national teams of interest)
- 7:00 PM EST: Houston @ SMU (ESPN2)
- 9:00 PM EST: Saint Mary’s @ San Diego (Bally?)
- 11:00 PM EST: Stanford @ UCLA (ESPN2)
NBA (the best two games, plus the Bulls, so all three games)
- 7:30 PM EST: Milwaukee @ Bulls (TNT)
- 8:00 PM EST: Washington @ Minnesota (League Pass)
- 10:00 PM EST: LA Clippers @ Phoenix (TNT)
NHL (the best two games)
- 7:00 PM EST: Florida @ Washington (ESPN+)
- 8:00 PM EST: Boston @ Nashville (ESPN+)
NASCAR
- 7:00 PM EST: Daytona Duel 1 (FS1)
- 8:45 PM EST (approximately): Daytona Duel 2 (FS1)
