Major League Baseball’s trade deadline arrives on Tuesday, and as we wrote the other day, teams’ calculations of the impact of moves are imprecise. One thing that is rather measurable, or at least possible to estimate, is the raw value every player presents in a hypothetical trade. If baseball were a positionless, fungible sport, which player’s combination of on-field value and payroll cost makes them the most valuable asset?
FanGraphs’s annual trade value ranking exercise names Gunnar Henderson the answer to that question. 23 years old, contending for the MVP, and under team control through 28, Henderson is affordable and talented. Gunnar Henderson, though, is not available in a trade. He is contending for the MVP on a team contending for a World Series title.
Who is available, from FanGraphs’s top 50 and honorable mention? Let’s figure it out. First, here’s every player on that list whose team is selling or might be inclined to sell:
- #4 Elly De La Cruz (CIN)
- #13 Riley Greene (DET)
- #16 Logan Webb (SF)
- #24 Tarik Skubal (DET)
- #26 Patrick Bailey (SF)
- #28 Luis Robert Jr. (CHW)
- #35 James Wood (WSH)
- #39 Ezequiel Tovar (COL)
- #40 Zach Neto (LAA)
- #48 Hunter Greene (CIN)
- #49 Justin Steele (CHC)
- #50 MacKenzie Gore (WSH)
- #HM Bo Bichette (TOR)
- #HM Randy Arozarena (TB/SEA)
- #HM Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)
- #HM Shōta Imanaga (CHC)
- #HM Spencer Steer (CIN)
- #HM Isaac Paredes (TB)
- #HM Reese Olson (DET)
- #HM Brenton Doyle (COL)
- #HM Brent Rookier (OAK)
- #HM Mason Miller (OAK)
- #HM Taj Bradley (TB)
- #HM Garrett Crochet (CHW)
Second, here’s every prospect from the top 50 and the honorable mention category whose team is buying or might be inclined to buy, with prospect defined as someone not currently in an everyday role:
- #37 Jackson Holliday (BAL)
- #HM Roman Anthony (BOS)
- #HM Samuel Basallo (BAL)
- #HM Heston Kjerstad (BAL)
- #HM Coby Mayo (BAL)
- #HM Andrew Painter (PHI)
- #HM AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL)
The way FanGraphs constructs its honorable mention list, we shouldn’t consider it truly the 51st through 104th-most valuable trade chips. For the sake of estimating what portion of the most valuable assets in baseball are theoretically available, though, let’s call the sample 104. With 31 players on our filtered list, that indicates something like 30% of the most valuable trade assets in baseball could theoretically be available, using strictly a buyer/seller dichotomy. All 30% of these assets, though, aren’t actually available. Let’s eliminate some names:
- The Reds aren’t trading Elly De La Cruz or Hunter Greene. Both are under team control through 2029, and neither will reach age 30 before that time. This is part of what makes them so valuable, but these are players whose value is spread over so many seasons that they’re more valuable to the team that would sell them than to the team that would buy them. The Reds are building around Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene. You don’t trade away cornerstones. Spencer Steer isn’t exactly a cornerstone, but he likely isn’t available either. Currently 26, he’s also under control through his age-30 season, which will come in 2029. The Reds aren’t that far away from contention, nor would they admit it if they were.
- Riley Greene is only under Detroit’s control through 2029, but he’s so young and that’s so far in the future that he’s similarly sitting in cornerstone status. Reese Olson is so new to the majors that his free agent year won’t even be locked in until October, and he’s on the IL anyway. It would be strange to see him move. Tarik Skubal? We’ll leave him on the list, but with two full cheap seasons ahead, well…more on him further down.
- I haven’t seen any indication the Giants are planning to sell, and while Logan Webb’s on the older side for this category, he’s still got three seasons of his traditional “prime” left after this one, keeping him in that De La Cruz-adjacent cornerstone space. Patrick Bailey fits the cornerstone archetype more neatly.
- MacKenzie Gore is only under the Nationals’ control through 2027, but rightly or wrongly, they seem excited about next year, making them unlikely to trade anyone young. James Wood has barely graduated from prospect status. He’s not moving.
- Ezequiel Tovar meets cornerstone criteria, as does Brenton Doyle, although he—like Webb—is a little older. (If the Rockies were savvy, they would learn from Nolan Jones’s second season and listen to offers on Doyle. The Rockies, however, are not savvy.)
- Randy Arozarena already moved, but more on him below. We’re leaving him on the list for a reason. Taj Bradley fits cornerstone criteria.
- Zach Neto fits cornerstone criteria.
- Shōta Imanaga’s age does not fit cornerstone criteria, but the Cubs are trying to become one of the primary destinations for Japanese players crossing the Pacific, making it unlikely he’s dealt.
- We’re not going to worry about any of the buyers’ prospect assets. This is about the biggest assets sellers can sell. Jackson Holliday could be part of a Tarik Skubal deal, but the Orioles aren’t going to trade him for prospects himself.
That leaves the following list, then, upon which I’ve marked players with asterisks:
- #24 Tarik Skubal (DET)*
- #28 Luis Robert Jr. (CHW)*
- #49 Justin Steele (CHC)*
- #HM Bo Bichette (TOR)*
- #HM Randy Arozarena (TB/SEA)
- #HM Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)*
- #HM Isaac Paredes (TB)*
- #HM Brent Rooker (OAK)
- #HM Mason Miller (OAK)*
- #HM Garrett Crochet (CHW)*
What’s the purpose of the asterisks? They indicate an uncertainty over whether or not the player is truly available. Notes:
- Skubal, mentioned above, has two seasons left in Detroit at an affordable price, and he’s not very old. If the Tigers sell him, it’ll be a sell-high move, one that lengthens their potential championship window but lessens their playoff probability these next two years.
- Through club options, Luis Robert Jr. is under White Sox control through 2027 and should be in his prime through all those years. Garrett Crochet won’t reach free agency until after 2026, and he’s reportedly tanking his own trade value by signaling he might not be willing to pitch in October without a contract extension. The White Sox might recognize how far away contention is for them, but two and three whole seasons is a long time in the 12-team playoff era.
- The Cubs haven’t developed a starting pitcher as successful as Justin Steele since the days of Jeff Samardzija. Of greater consequence, they expect to contend next year and Steele won’t reach free agency until after 2027. The one caveat here is that Steele is 29, meaning he should start the downhill portion of the aging curve after next year. Even with that, he’s more like Skubal than Crochet.
- Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won’t reach free agency until after next year, and each still has at least three prime years left, giving the Blue Jays extension leverage because of that last year of arbitration awaiting each and the cost of the qualifying offer each would likely receive.
- Isaac Paredes is under club control through 2027, and he’s only 25. We’d have him off this list if he wasn’t actively appearing in rumors and if the Rays weren’t so good at stocking their farm system that they can afford to deal assets earlier than their counterparts.
- Mason Miller is currently on the injured list with a broken hand.
Our list, then, is only ten players long, featuring nobody ranked better than 24th. Eight of the players might not actually be available, and of the two who are, one has already been dealt. That player, Randy Arozarena, only netted two solid prospects (I haven’t seen either in anyone’s top 100) and a player to be named later. That player might be a solid prospect himself, but it’s unlikely the Mariners are about to give up 21-year-old top catching prospect Harry Ford.
The honorable mention portion of the list is vague. Arozarena could be 51st, or he could be 104th, or he could be deeper than 104th and included because he fits a category. Personally, I’d guess he’s comfortably in the top 100 but not particularly close to the top 50. Call it 75th. Are other honorable mentions better assets than he is? Yes, a few are. But we’re still looking at maybe only seven or eight available assets who’d generate a bigger return than Randy Arozarena, and there’s reason to believe each of those but Rooker is unavailable.
So yes, the industry line that few teams are selling is true. Maybe that drives prices up, and it’s a good year to be a seller. Even so, we aren’t looking at a lot of impending blockbusters.
Miscellany – Walk-Ons
With power conference football rosters potentially moving to a 105-player cap, but with 105 scholarships effectively available, some are foretelling the disappearance of the walk-on. Is this really going to happen? My best guess is that there are three deciding factors.
First: Will schools use all 105 roster spots on recruits? I’m not sure what the average number of preferred walk-ons is on FBS rosters, but some of the 20-scholarship boost will go to them. From there, do schools all decide to use all their remaining space? Or do they view the situation as one of diminishing returns? If it’s the latter, they can fill the 105 spots with at least some of their normal walk-ons: Coaches’ kids, future securities fraudsters, and gritty high schoolers who manage to get an audience.
Second: Are managers a workaround? Depending how clear or blurred the lines are between athletes and managers, it’s possible players currently deemed walk-ons could take manager roles and still “help out” by practicing.
Third: Are open tryouts a workaround? If the point is to find good kids who work hard, coaches could theoretically still do this.
I understand Dabo Swinney’s emotional attachment to walk-ons. I’m not trying to dismiss that. But some of the points in that ESPN piece do ring hollow. Nobody’s forcing teams to only travel with 80 players, and to get back to the diminishing returns angle, adding more players only to find them unhappy with playing time can create some collateral issues. Maybe every power conference team will fill all 105 scholarship spots with the best players available, taking 1,360 players from the Group of Five and FCS. More likely, some walk-ons end up as scholarship players, some scholarships go unused, some workarounds are found, and the impact of the change—while real—is smaller than Swinney fears.
Miscellany – The Trades
Thoughts on each trade from last night and today:
- The Marlins appear to have gotten a pretty good return for A.J. Puk. Depending on that player to be named later in the Arozarena deal, their return might not be much worse than what the Rays got for one of the biggest names on the market.
- It’s scary to do business with the Rays because they’re so good at identifying assets they can work with. My perception is that Arozarena has been streaky over his career, and the approach of the aging curve combines with his weak year so far to work against his value. Aside from mortgaging the farm on Luis Robert Jr., though, I don’t know what else the Mariners could have done to look for an offensive spark. I guess they could have chased Bichette or Guerrero, but this seems like a decent price to pay for the chance to spark their offense, and it seems comparably probable a Bichette or Guerrero trade to achieve that goal. I don’t personally think it’s going to work, because the Rays’ willingness to deal Arozarena feels like a red flag and I’m worried any spark might be a drop in the Mariners’ ocean, but I respect the move.
- We’ve bet against James Paxton a lot this year, but I’m still surprised he didn’t generate a bigger return. I wonder if the Dodgers wanted to do right by him in sending him back to Boston. Also, they might really like the 17-year-old they got in return.
- Great trade for the Phillies and Orioles, flipping Seranthony Domínguez and Christian Pache in return for Austin Hays. The Orioles nearly suffered bullpen calamity yet again yesterday, and Christian Pache gives them a specific skillset that also helps prevent bullpen calamity. Hays should be a solid bat for the Phils, although I do wonder if they’ll still make a move for a bigger bat. I also wonder if Domínguez’s departure means the Phillies have an impending bullpen acquisition on the way, given they’ve been rumored to be seeking relief help. We’ll find out.
