Something we’re often trying to gauge here, as a digital media brand focused on college sports, is how large the college sports media market is. Which makes it convenient when someone just tweets it out:
For those who don’t know Andrew Brandt: He was an executive for the Packers and works in media now, often explaining the business side of sports. I’ve found him to be reputable. The numbers on the SEC, Big Ten, and EPL deals are a little funky—the Big Ten reaching $1.07B per year should still be a few years away; the SEC’s revenue should spike dramatically in 2025 and 2026, making that $588M is a bit of an understatement; and I think that Premier League number must be for the U.K., since the U.S. deal was reported to be around $460M—but taking this tweet as fact…
College football is about as popular as the NBA.
If you use the Big Ten and SEC numbers and add to them some quick guesses on the rest of the Power 5 (extrapolate those Navigate estimates out across the number of schools, then apply the same discount the SEC gets between Navigate’s number and Brandt’s, which gives you a $333M estimate for the ACC, a $318M estimate for the Pac-12, and a $313M estimate for the Big 12), the total Power Five revenue sum comes out to…$2.6B. Some of this might not be football-specific revenue—basketball is a big part of the Big Ten package—but this is also only the Power Five, and the assumption that non-Power Five college football makes up the gap vacated by Power Five non-football isn’t outrageous. After all, the estimate on the Big Ten deal is that it’ll garner $80M-$100M per school annually, and Notre Dame’s deal with NBC—a football-only deal—is expected to land somewhere around $75M (even that $75M is outside the Power Five, to get back to our point). It isn’t outrageous as a TV outsider to assume that the ratio between Power Five football revenue and overall Power Five revenue is comparable to the ratio between Power Five football revenue and overall college football revenue. Which gets us back to:
College football is about as popular as the NBA.
I don’t know that this is surprising. Football is a spectacularly easy sport to follow, its season is conducive to grabbing potent TV windows, and college football is particularly emotionally significant for millions. Still, noteworthy, and noteworthy to compare college football with professional sports. The NBA and college football are each about a quarter as popular as the NFL. Major League Baseball is about a fifth as popular as the NFL. The NHL is about one-sixteenth as popular as the NFL. Together, those four entities—college football, the NBA, the NHL, and MLB—are only about three-quarters as popular as the NFL. This is why so much airtime is given to power ranking quarterbacks and evaluating mid-round draft prospects and speculating on which cornerbacks will and won’t survive the final roster cut in Jacksonville: The market demands it.
We got some really useful feedback from a reader survey we did this spring. Among that was some encouragement to blog more about the NFL and NBA. Looking at these numbers…yeah, we need to do that. Especially the NFL (we’ve been trying to beef up our college football coverage ever since we moved from All Things NIT to The Barking Crow). But how can we do it well? Barring another Tom Brady scoop (I need to find that guy’s number), it’s probably Bears mockery from Stu, coverage of Aaron Rodgers’s use of hallucinogenic drugs from Stu, and futures betting from me. There are things we do well, and futures betting has so far been one of them. Maybe that’s our angle here.
Aside from that, it’s a little exciting to see just how popular college football is in America, and it’s even more exciting when we zoom out and remember just how much bigger this Big Ten deal is than the last one. College football is likely passing the NBA in popularity, at least measured in this cumulative interest sense. That’s encouraging for us. And, if you’re a regular reader, it’s hopefully exciting for you. It’s that sort of demand that can keep this blog around.
Cubs v. Brewers
The Cubs start a weekend set today with the Brewers, and if you count yesterday’s rain makeup in Baltimore as its own series, they’ve won five straight series. If you don’t count it, they haven’t lost four straight series. That’s good.
We’ve talked about this a lot before, mostly last year, but it’s almost always worth another mention: The Cubs could get a franchise-changing prospect with a high pick in next summer’s draft, and picking early in later rounds is good too (though returns diminish), but the benefit of a slightly higher draft position doesn’t really compare to the benefit of seeing the current young players play well enough to make this a 75-win or, in the absolute best case, an 80-win team. If Seiya Suzuki and Nico Hoerner and Justin Steele (not to mention Franmil Reyes and Nick Madrigal and Christopher Morel and a dozen others) can lead a competitive team for these final two months, that’s a bigger deal than a marginally better crop of fresh prospects next summer. A much, much bigger deal.
So, the goal should be to win the series, and it’s not an outlandish goal. The Cubs are playing at home against a team on the edge of playoff quality, and they’re facing only one of that team’s two aces.
In other Cubs news, Michael Hermosillo has started a rehab assignment, so expect to see him get some at-bats before the end of the year. It’s hard to say if this is pure speculation or if there’s some smoke, but rumblings do exist that Hermosillo isn’t significantly hurt and that the Cubs have slow-played his rehab in order to avoid having to designate him for assignment and risk losing him to another team. I…don’t know if I buy it. The guy’s almost 28, his MLB sample is small but bad, and aside from a hot stretch in Des Moines last year, his minor league results aren’t extraordinary. I wish him the best and all, but I don’t know that it makes sense for him to stay on the 40-man roster through the offseason, especially if it comes down to someones like him and Adrian Sampson, or even him and Rafael Ortega (who isn’t good and lacks Hermosillo’s theoretical upside but can be an immediately serviceable fourth outfielder).
Elsewhere on the ballfield:
AL East
It’s not the closest race, but it might be the most interesting. After Wednesday’s thrilling comeback, the Yankees got trounced by the Blue Jays at home last night, with Frankie Montas allowing five runs in the second inning and José Berríos striking out nine while only walking one. Yusei Kikuchi’s evidently in the bullpen now for Toronto, which might be a better fit (given his strikeout numbers), and with the Rays beating Kansas City (behind a productive start for recent top-ish prospect but setback-by-injury this year Luis Patiño), the gap is down to single digits: The Yanks lead the Rays by nine and the Jays by nine. Eight each in the loss column. Long way to go, but lot of season to get there. (Yeah, we’re cheering against the Yankees, for a variety of reasons but mostly betting.)
AL Central
The Astros mutilated the White Sox, which with the Guardians and Twins both idle pushed Chicago to two and a half behind Cleveland and one and a half behind Minnesota. They were “hot” so recently. That’s not been an infrequent arc for them this year. For the Twins, evidently Tyler Mahle left Wednesday’s start early (missed that, apologies) and had an MRI yesterday, but the MRI came back clean. Concerning stuff for a team clinging to playoff aspirations and competing with a Cleveland team for whom a lot is going right.
AL Wild Card
With the Mariners idle and the Orioles and Red Sox both losing (the Red Sox also lost James Paxton before he even got through his rehab assignments—lat strain), the big movement was the Rays/Jays stratification. More than a game lead for each over the cut line entering the weekend. If it’s them and Seattle, that’s a potent trio.
Baltimore designated Brett Phillips for assignment after the game, which makes a lot of people sad, but, isn’t part of the charm of Brett Phillips that he’s a journeyman, fringe-roster guy? I mean, yeah, you want the best for a guy who seems that likeable, but also, it does make him a more compelling character.
NL Central
The Cardinals obliterated the Rockies, finishing a sweep but failing to gain any ground in the division as Andrew McCutchen homered twice to get Milwaukee past the Dodgers.
In the loss for Colorado, Antonio Senzatela hurt his knee and had to be helped off the field. Not a great situation for the Rockies, and especially not great for Senzatela.
NL East
I don’t know that you can say Max Fried “outpitched” Jacob deGrom last night, but Atlanta got the win, 3-2, over the Mets, and that puts the gap at three and a half games. A bye is at stake, and the two only play one another three more times, all in Atlanta.
After the game, Marcell Ozuna had a busy night, booked into the Gwinnett County Jail at 4:39 AM on a DUI charge. Very bad. Very bad situation. You hope everyone involved ends up ok.
Though idle, the Phils were busy, claiming Bradley Zimmer off waivers from Toronto to slot in for Brandon Marsh, who recently sprained his ankle. The Phillies outfield—Schwarber, Zimmer, Castellanos, from left to right—is funny. Everyone there is very good at one specific thing, and the other things can go well but they are not expected to go well.
NL Wild Card
The Josh Hader trade doesn’t look bad for either side as much as it looks sad now. With the game tied at one (against the, oof, Nationals) and Yu Darvish well shy of 100 pitches, Bob Melvin sent Darvish out for the ninth, Darvish allowed a pair of softer singles and only got one out, Melvin called on Hader, Hader hit Luke Voit with a pitch then walked Nelson Cruz to give Washington the lead and, ultimately, the win. The Padres are better enough than the Phillies on paper that they should still be able to grab the five-seed (whether they’d prefer that or a first-round trip to St. Louis is up for debate), but they aren’t assured of a playoff spot and they have two major distractions, not to mention two players underperforming high expectations. Also, I mean, they should grab the five-seed but they should be comfortably there already, so missing the playoffs is well within the realm of possibility.
You wonder, with a team like the Padres, for whom aggression has often been followed by underperformance these last few years, if there’s something deeper going on there. Something psychological. Research hasn’t found great information on “team chemistry” or “vibes” or whatever you want to call it, but watch the Cubs from 2018 through 2021, and, well, the conventional wisdom that baseball is a hugely mental game sounds wise.
Up the coast, the Giants ran into a Zac Gallen-shaped buzzsaw, and between them, Boston, and Baltimore, we could see the number of playoff-relevant teams shrink from eighteen to fifteen in the next week or two. Fifteen teams for twelve spots isn’t a whole lot. Especially since the three likeliest to miss the field all play in the Centrals, which could let this devolve into ten locked-in playoff teams and two kids tables.
The Game
Mike Trout is coming off the IL today.
Packers v. Saints
The Packers have been practicing against the Saints the last two days, and they play them tonight in a preseason game. Aaron Rodgers won’t play again, making it an exercise in curiosity in watching Jordan Love, but we’ll still get some clear looks at the receiving corps and bits and pieces of insight elsewhere. It’s preseason football. It’s not everybody’s favorite (everybody, in this case, includes me). But for those interested, the questions seem to be wide receiver (still), offensive line depth, who’ll round out the secondary behind the big guns, and littler things like special teams (admittedly a pretty big thing last year).
Nazem Kadri to the Flames
Nazem Kadri has signed with the Flames, concluding significant NHL free agent activity and leaving the Flames seemingly pretty well re-stocked. Their offseason was headlined by two of their best players saying they weren’t coming back, and Calgary came out about as good as they came in. What does this mean? The most interesting part for me is that it could have been an opportunity to try to jumpstart a big rebuild, and the Flames went the other direction instead, opting to extend the current window. I don’t know if that’s competitive drive or belief in the roster or a rejection of the idea of rebuilding or what, but it seems noteworthy.
**
We’re going to *try* to do notes again tomorrow, so only a viewing schedule for tonight, instead of the full weekend. Second screen rotation in italics:
- 2:20 PM EDT: Milwaukee @ Cubs, Ashby vs. Thompson (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Toronto @ New York (AL), Gausman vs. Taillon (Apple TV+)
- 10:10 PM EDT: Miami @ Los Angeles, Luzardo vs. Anderson (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Boston @ Baltimore, Crawford vs. Lyles (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ Philadelphia, Bassitt vs. Nola (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Cleveland, Lynn vs. McKenzie (MLB TV)
- 7:20 PM EDT: Houston @ Atlanta, McCullers vs. Wright (MLB TV)
- 8:00 PM EDT: New Orleans @ Packers (NFL+)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Texas @ Minnesota, Pérez vs. Bundy (Apple TV+)
- 8:40 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Colorado, Wood vs. Ureña (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- 9:40 PM EDT: Seattle @ Oakland, Gonzales vs. Irvin (MLB TV)
- 9:40 PM EDT: St. Louis @ Arizona, Mikolas vs. Henry (MLB TV)
- 9:40 PM EDT: Washington @ San Diego, Espino vs. Snell (MLB TV)
