Joe’s Notes: How Often Do Series Go to Game 7?

In 1985, Major League Baseball expanded its League Championship Series to seven games. In 1987, the NHL expanded its First Round to seven games. In 2003, the NBA expanded its own First Round to seven games. Together, over the years since expanding to their current numbers of best-of-seven series (3 a year, 15, and 15, respectively), these leagues have played 969 best-of-seven series, prior to this season. Together, they’ve played 249 Game 7’s in those 969 matchups. Here are the numbers broken out by league:

The short answer, then, to our question above, is that we get a Game 7 in about a quarter of best-of-seven series.

The Process and Tyrese Maxey

This will surprise no one, even if they haven’t seen us write it before, but I loved The Process. I believe Sam Hinkie’s exile from the NBA is bullshit, a move pushed by Adam Silver and the cartel of owners who back him in order to hide the fact that the NBA, even more than the rest of the Big Four, is a socialistic enterprise that stifles competition in order to better line the pockets of owners who purportedly bought these teams because they wanted to compete. The emperor wears no clothes, and Sam Hinkie said it, and nothing’s changed since, because the NBA managed to convince the narrative that the Hinkie front office wasn’t competing when those Sixers were actually trying harder to win than most NBA franchises ever have.

Still, it is very funny that as the Process fades into the gray, the Sixers’ rising star is a guy they picked 21^st in the 2020 Draft, a pick which arose from a 43–30 season which landed them in the exact portion of no-man’s land Hinkie and his disciples worked so hard to avoid. Irony of ironies. Poor Hinkie.

Tyrese Maxey, welcome to NBA Playoff lore. You did enough last night to earn some big expectations from the narrative heading into these next few years. Ben Simmons, you are not.

The Rest

The NBA:

• One of the postseason tropes I don’t think we highlight enough, as fans, is the fourth quarter victory lap that happens when an overmatched team wins big. Credit to Milwaukee. Pacers doubters, I think we all understand now.
• Will Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard return for Game 6? If you’re the Bucks, you might as well keep talking about it. The series is going back to Indiana, so the Pacers presumably have Game 6 circled, and the Celtics and Heat have shown how little one game can mean. But it’s a great time for gamesmanship on Milwaukee’s part. Think of the pants-shitting on the Indiana side if Giannis and Dame warm up tomorrow night.
• A great ending from the Cavs and Magic last night. On the losing side: I have to be reminded a lot how well Paolo Banchero’s career is progressing. All three of him, Chet Holmgren, and Jabari Smith Jr. have good things going. Good 2022 draft, everybody.
• Mavs/Clippers feels like it’s been happening on an island. It feels separate from the rest of the playoffs. Maybe I just get more distracted late at night.

The NHL:

• I feel like I’m missing some context on the Hurricanes retracting their extension offer to Rob Brind’Amour. I assume they’re planning to raise the price? Why is it being framed as a retraction, though? Either way, Brind’Amour and the Canes are into the second round. Au revoir, Islanders.
• Much like the Bucks and Sixers, the Leafs and Predators are alive after last night, and the Leafs escape feels especially surprising. I don’t think anyone’s pinning the Canucks’ loss on bad goalie play, but they’ve occupied a tenuous position because of their injuries in the net, so a Predators comeback has felt plausible. The Leafs, though, looked dead, and as it so often goes with Game 5 winners headed back home, they might be favored to force a Game 7 by the time the puck drops tomorrow night. I’m assuming it depends on Auston Matthews’s availability.
• Real bummer of a playoffs for the Jets. Real bummer. I wonder if it’s easier for the fanbase when it so recently experienced losing the team entirely?
• We continue to see betting markets treat the Oilers like the best team in the NHL, or at least very close to it. I’m still not sure if a 20–12–5 record (so, 20 wins and 17 losses) over the last two and a half months of the regular season is that encouraging. They should put away the Kings tonight, but I don’t think it or anything else should be expected to come easy for them.
• The other team suspected of being overhyped, Vegas, is changing goalies tonight, going back to Adin Hill. Make of that what you will.

Chicago:

• It’s hard to get a natural feel for how good a baseball team’s defense is. The eye test is a poor resource for evaluating defense in the sport of baseball. Derek Jeter is the classic example here. So, consulting a few stats…yeah, the Cubs have had some defensive struggles so far. They’re 23^rd in FanGraphs’s Defensive Runs Against Average, or whatever term they’re using these days. They’re 28^th in Outs Above Average over at Baseball Savant/Statcast. Bad defense. But, Dansby Swanson hasn’t really been the problem. He’s made a few bad throws, and you expect him to be an asset, not the absence of a problem, but he’s been fine. Two outs above average. Slightly above average through FanGraphs’s measurement as well. (I believe FanGraphs’s still works in part off of Statcast.)
• Still, a few throws have been bad, and last night’s turned costly when Adbert Alzolay couldn’t get out of the inning after it happened. Something people weren’t very concerned about when Swanson was acquired was the loss of Nico Hoerner’s defensive value at shortstop. Swanson had the better defensive year in 2022, but with Swanson three years older than Hoerner, it did seem plausible at the time that there might come a day when the Cubs would want to move Swanson to second or third and slot Hoerner back in at short. I don’t think we’re anywhere near that moment, but it’s worth remembering, and now that we’ve gotten a better read on Swanson, any concerns about protecting his ego should be out the window. The guy does not seem like he wants or requires ego protection.
• To say it one more time: I’m worried about Shōta Imanaga starting tonight on normal MLB rest. It’s the first time we’ve seen him do it, and it’s not the norm in Japan. Kodai Senga had quite the rookie season last year. Per Baseball Reference, he only started three times on four days of rest. Similarly to a lot of postseason conversations with these kinds of things, a slightly worse Imanaga is still better than the alternative, but don’t expect the best Imanaga tonight in Queens.
• On the newsier side, Justin Steele made a rehab outing today in Des Moines, throwing 63 pitches and working into the fourth inning. It remains to be determined whether he’ll make a second rehab start or jump right back into the rotation. Also working his way back is Kyle Hendricks, who’ll make a rehab start for Tennessee tomorrow at the Double-A level.
• And, in the Bulls’ world, Zach LaVine is reportedly recovering well from his foot injury, per NBC Sports Chicago, while The Athletic included Marc Eversley as a possible president of basketball operations candidate for the Pistons. I don’t know why either.