Aaron Judge heads to Milwaukee this weekend, and he carries with him 57 home runs over the season to date. Three more over the next eleven games and he matches Babe Ruth’s total from the old 154-game season. Four more over the next nineteen games and he matches Roger Maris’s pre-steroid era single-season record. Five more, and some will call the record his.
There’s a median expectation for how many he’ll hit—I’m seeing six more as the number on all the FanGraphs projection systems, for a total of 63—but this is just the median. What we’re most interested in are the margins. How likely is it that he doesn’t reach 60 or 61 or 62? How likely is it that he gets all the way to 70?
We used FanGraphs Depth Charts and did a basic Monte Carlo simulation, taking the implied probability of a home run in a given plate appearance (6 out of 79, or 7.6%), the most likely number of plate appearances the rest of the way (79), and a random number generator to play out a hypothetical 79 plate appearances 10,000 separate times. It’s important to note that injury or the Yankees clinching early or late could affect this. But if 79 is the plate appearance number, here’s a rough probability distribution:
| Home Runs | Probability |
| 57 | 0% |
| 58 | 1% |
| 59 | 4% |
| 60 | 8% |
| 61 | 13% |
| 62 | 17% |
| 63 | 16% |
| 64 | 15% |
| 65 | 11% |
| 66 | 7% |
| 67 | 4% |
| 68 | 2% |
| 69 | 1% |
| 70 | 0% |
| 71 | 0% |
| 72 | 0% |
| 73 | 0% |
Because of how we rounded, there are buckets (57, 70, 71, 72, and 73, specifically) which round down to 0% but did come up in a few simulations. Overall, though? The 1-in-100 possibility appears to be 69 home runs. The 1-in-10 possibility is 66. The median, again, is 63, and there’s about a five percent chance he doesn’t catch Ruth, a fourteen percent chance he doesn’t catch Maris, and a 27% chance he doesn’t pass Maris. By this rather crude estimate.
That’s the scene as Judge heads to Milwaukee. Plenty more to come, we’d guess.
The Mets Snap Back
After being swept by the Cubs Wednesday night, the Mets were one loss to the Pirates away from relinquishing first place yet again. Instead, they won, and they lead Atlanta by a game heading into this weekend, though the pair’s tied in the loss column.
It’s interesting how much this race has been amplified by the switch to multiple Wild Card teams. Back when only four teams from each league made the playoffs, this would have been more meaningless.
It’s also interesting to consider how much less this would mean if the race was for the third seed vs. the fourth seed. The bye is what makes this matter.
Other playoff races, what’s happened the last two days (and then, the Cubs and the news):
AL East
The end result of these four days was perfect for the Yankees. The Blue Jays, who’d been narrowly behind the Rays, took three of five from Tampa Bay. The Yankees, trying to escape the pair, took two of two from Boston. It’s not entirely over, but it’s back up near the NL Central in probability, meaning that unless something dramatic happens this weekend to change the situation, we’ll probably pivot next week to watching for who gets the 4-seed out of Tampa Bay, Toronto, and Seattle (the Mariners have a percentage-point lead on it).
Since we mentioned Seattle, they did beat the Padres on Wednesday, splitting that series and playing their final playoff-contending opponent of the regular season. It’s all also-rans from here for these guys.
AL Central
The Guardians won on Wednesday and the White Sox lost, but then the White Sox battled back yesterday to take down the division leaders in a one-off game in Cleveland. With Minnesota winning twice, Cleveland enters the weekend up three on the White Sox and four on the Twins, but up four on both in the loss column. They host Minnesota for four high-leverage games, trying to run out the clock.
NL Wild Card
No capitalization from the Brewers on that Padres loss Wednesday, as Corbin Burnes wasn’t enough to beat the Cardinals on Wednesday night, but with San Diego losing in Arizona then last night, Milwaukee’s within a game and a half of the playoff field, and they’re just one loss back. They don’t enjoy the Mariners’ schedule from here out (nobody does), but they do have a slightly easier road than their competition.
The Phillies remain part of that competition, and they’ve got a tough road, playing three in Atlanta this weekend as part of a nine-game stretch exclusively against boppers. Seven against Atlanta, two against Toronto. Tough week. They do lead the Padres by two and a half and the Brewers by four, so they have a sizable margin for error, but it does make things a little worse that they’re not just playing playoff teams, but playing playoff teams with lots to play for.
The Cubs
The Cubs kept rocking on Wednesday, and now they play the Rockies for three this weekend, with tenth place in the entire National League at stake. What a buzz.
On the injury front, Seiya Suzuki had x-rays after being hit on the hand Wednesday night, and they were negative. Alec Mills had back surgery—no idea what that means for his future. Keegan Thompson’s making a rehab start today, and Nico Hoerner’s still throwing and hitting—no IL for him. Yet. Miguel Amaya’s status for the Arizona Fall League is up in the air. Adbert Alzolay should come back this weekend for use out of the bullpen.
On the minor league front, Myrtle Beach was eliminated and South Bend plays their Game 3 tonight to see if they go to the Midwest League Championship Series. The Tennessee Smokies open their playoffs on Tuesday. The Iowa Cubs did not make the playoffs, so their season will end on September 28th. Elsewhere in prospectdom, Derniche Valdez is one among what Baseball America says are 15-20 infielders who’ll sign for upwards of $1M in the upcoming international signing period, and the reports are that he’s reached an agreement with the Cubs. He may be in the upper cut of those 15-20, but I don’t get the impression he’s at Cristian Hernandez’s level, for those deep enough into this to follow Cristian Hernandez.
News
Aroldis Chapman is back from the IL for the Yankees after his tattoo infection. Kirby Yates is back onto the IL for Atlanta. There are other rusty relievers who used to be dominant out there. Not all of them are bouncing onto and off of the injured list.
Ozzie Albies is back from the IL, giving him about three weeks to get fully up to speed, in addition to all his rehab work. I’d think that’s plenty of time. This is a good, good roster. Both NL East-leading rosters are good.
Shane Baz is not expected back for the Rays, which eliminates a potential multi-inning weapon for them in October who could have been pretty darn potent. The Rays always seem like a team about to pull off a heist, but I’m not sure they are this year. They’re hard to measure, with so many interworking parts, but they’ve taken a lot of hits.
Shane McClanahan is back for the Rays, amping up their rotation ahead of October and reminding us that these guys, in a strange way, are kind of loaded? Five innings, five strikeouts, one walk for him against the Blue Jays yesterday.
Max Scherzer should come right back next week from his little IL stint with the oblique fatigue. Great news for the Mets.
Ian Anderson’s going to miss presumably the rest of the season, shut down in Gwinnett with an oblique strain. If he wasn’t good enough to stick on the MLB roster, it’s hard to see him rehabbing and then becoming useful enough in Atlanta’s eyes to pitch in the playoffs, but necessity sometimes occurs.
Trap Time
We wrote a lot about the college football weekend ahead in its own post, but we were focusing on playoff contenders and big games, and Iowa State fits neither of those bills. What Iowa State’s date with Ohio does fit is the paragon of a trap game. Ohio’s a bad mid-major, even among college football mid-majors, but Iowa State’s coming off a physical, emotional victory. I’m not terribly worried the Cyclones will lose, but with Baylor coming to town next weekend (for an early kick), this is one ISU wants to get the starters out of as early as possible. Would really like a cakewalk.
Packers vs. Bears
The injury report for Sunday is out, and David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, and Jon Runyan are all questionable on the offensive line, with Allen Lazard also questionable outside.
You can’t really gameplan your way around an offensive line, and the lack of timing so far between Aaron Rodgers and his young receivers makes that even more difficult. Run blocking may be the bigger problem than pass blocking, too, which leaves a big question mark. Do you try to get Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon the ball a lot in space? Is that the priority? How much can you do that while maintaining effectiveness?
The Bears aren’t a good team, but they’re an NFL team, and the Packers are going to need their defense to force Justin Fields into tough situations. Green Bay should be fine. Should be.
What’s Going to Happen at Bristol?
I really don’t know what to expect at Bristol tomorrow night. I don’t get the idea anyone does. It’s traditionally not somewhere anyone drives away with a race—there’s usually a large amount of chaos—but with the new car, short tracks have been tame, and while Bristol’s not an ordinary short track, with its high banking, it’s still a short track. Couple in that all but one of the playoff drivers have a straightforward shot at advancing to the next round on points, and I don’t know if we’re looking at a night where everyone’s fighting over every spot or if we’re looking at a night where everyone’s waiting for the final stage to start trying to make moves. Given the difficulty of passing, and given the points situation, I’d think everyone would want to hang right around tenth. That seems like the target for most of this field. But I’m not making the decision.
Housekeeping!
The college football model, at long last, is operational, which is a relief. We still have more features to flesh out, and then it’s on to the same saga but with Gelo for the NHL, but the damn thing is up and running. Hallelujah.
We’ll still have a recap post of tomorrow’s action out sometime on Sunday, but it will be later than we’ve been posting it (so we can run the model) and it may just be the model’s high-level readouts. We may save the in-depth dive for Monday. I’m not sure yet.
Anyway, please check back for that. Thanks, as always, for being here.
**
Weekend viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:
College Football (of interest, at least within its time slot)
- Friday, 7:30 PM EDT: Florida State @ Louisville (ESPN)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: Oklahoma @ Nebraska (FOX)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: Georgia @ South Carolina (ESPN)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EDT: Ohio @ Iowa State (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: BYU @ Oregon (FOX)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: Penn State @ Auburn (CBS)
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EDT: Kansas @ Houston (ESPNU)
- Saturday, 5:00 PM EDT: Liberty @ Wake Forest (ACC Network)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EDT: Texas Tech @ NC State (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT: Michigan State @ Washington (ABC)
- Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT: Pitt @ Western Michigan (ESPNU)
- Saturday, 8:00 PM EDT: UTSA @ Texas (Longhorn Network)
- Saturday, 9:00 PM EDT: Miami @ Texas A&M (ESPN)
- Saturday, 10:30 PM EDT: Fresno State @ USC (FOX)
- Saturday, 11:00 PM EDT: North Dakota State @ Arizona (FS1)
MLB (of playoff race significance, also the Cubs)
- Friday, 2:20 PM EDT: Colorado @ Cubs, Márquez vs. Stroman (MLB TV)
- Friday, 7:07 PM EDT: Baltimore @ Toronto, Lyles vs. Richards (Apple TV+)
- Friday, 7:10 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Detroit, Giolito vs. Manning (MLB TV)
- Friday, 7:10 PM EDT: Minnesota @ Cleveland, Ober vs. McKenzie (MLB TV)
- Friday, 7:10 PM EDT: Pittsburgh @ New York (NL), Keller vs. Walker (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- Friday, 7:10 PM EDT: Texas @ Tampa Bay, Pérez vs. Kluber (MLB TV)
- Friday, 7:20 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ Atlanta, Suárez vs. Fried (MLB TV)
- Friday, 8:10 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Milwaukee, Montas vs. Houser (MLB TV)
- Friday, 9:38 PM EDT: Seattle @ Anaheim, Ray vs. Lorenzen (MLB TV)
- Friday, 9:40 PM EDT: San Diego @ Arizona, Snell vs. Bumgarner (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 1:10 PM EDT: Minnesota @ Cleveland – Game 1, Winder vs. Bieber (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 2:20 PM EDT: Colorado @ Cubs, Ureña vs. Wesneski (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 3:07 PM EDT: Baltimore @ Toronto, Bradish vs. Berríos (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 6:10 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Detroit, Cueto vs. Rodriguez (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 6:10 PM EDT: Texas @ Tampa Bay, Gray vs. TBD (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 7:10 PM EDT: Minnesota @ Cleveland – Game 2, TBD vs. Pilkington (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 7:10 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Milwaukee, Taillon vs. Woodruff (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 7:10 PM EDT: Pittsburgh @ New York (NL), Wilson vs. Bassitt (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 7:20 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ Atlanta, Nola vs. Odorizzi (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 8:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ Arizona, Musgrove vs. Gallen (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 9:07 PM EDT: Seattle @ Anaheim, Kirby vs. Ohtani (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 12:20 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Detroit, Kopech vs. Huthison (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 1:10 PM EDT: Texas @ Tampa Bay, Otto vs. Springs (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 1:35 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ Atlanta, Falter vs. Strider (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 1:37 PM EDT: Baltimore @ Toronto, Kremer vs. Manoah (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 1:40 PM EDT: Minnesota @ Cleveland, Ryan vs. Morris (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 1:40 PM EDT: Pittsburgh @ New York (NL), Oviedo vs. deGrom (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 2:10 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Milwaukee, Cole vs. Alexander (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 2:20 PM EDT: Colorado @ Cubs, Feltner vs. Assad (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 4:07 PM EDT: Seattle @ Anaheim, Gonzales vs. Detmers (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 4:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ Arizona, Darvish vs. Nelson (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 7:00 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ San Francisco, Heaney vs. Cobb (ESPN)
NFL (of interest)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EDT: Miami @ Baltimore (CBS)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EDT: Washington @ Detroit (FOX)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (FOX)
- Sunday, 4:25 PM EDT: Cincinnati @ Dallas (CBS)
- Sunday, 4:25 PM EDT: Arizona @ Las Vegas (CBS)
- Sunday, 8:20 PM EDT: Chicago @ Packers (NBC)
Motorsports (that we cover)
- Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT: Bass Pro Shops Night Race – NASCAR Cup Series at Bristol (USA)
Soccer (of significance to our futures portfolios)
- Friday, 3:00 PM EDT: Southampton @ Aston Villa (USA)
- Friday, 3:00 PM EDT: Fulham @ Nottingham Forest (Peacock)
- Saturday, 7:30 AM EDT: Hull City @ Swansea City (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EDT: Sunderland @ Watford (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EDT: Sheffield United @ Preston North End
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EDT: Blackpool @ Millwall
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EDT: West Bromwich Albion @ Norwich City
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EDT: Stoke City @ Queens Park Rangers
- Sunday, 7:00 AM EDT: Arsenal @ Brentford (USA)
- Sunday, 9:15 AM EDT: West Ham @ Everton (USA)
