The recruiting buzz has hit LeBron James’s son Bronny, who will graduate high school this coming spring and appears likely to play college basketball rather than enter the G-League alternative or another lower-profile scheme. It’s come on fast, and it’s come on loud, and a question I’m guessing many of you have asked is the same one I asked when I realized the kid’s age: How good is this guy? We saw Michael Jordan’s kids play college basketball. They were fine. We’ve seen Bronny highlights for years. Is he better than MJ’s kids?
This isn’t a LeBron-vs.-MJ debate. God forbid it turns into that. But MJ’s kids provide a useful baseline for comparison, since those kids were high-profile by virtue of their pedigree and were fine athletes, even relative to their Division I peers, but were never serious professional prospects. Is the same thing happening with Bronny?
Not really. Bronny is, true to the highlights, a good player. 247’s composite rankings have him the 43rd-best recruit in his class. That’s great. The ceiling from that sphere of the rankings is to be a one-and-done-level player (Blake Wesley was ranked 121st, and while 43rd is closer to 121st in ability than it is to 1st, because these things happen on a curve, it demonstrates that the potential is there). Bronny James could conceivably reach the NBA in two years on merit alone. He could conceivably fail to ever reach the NBA on merit. It would be surprising for a player of his ability to not have a successful professional basketball career somewhere, even if not overseas.
But, he’s LeBron James’s son. So things are different.
I’m curious how this will be covered when it happens, but Bronny James is going to have to decide in the spring of 2024 whether or not to enter the NBA Draft. LeBron James has said he wants to play NBA games with his son. LeBron James is, even at 38 (which he’ll turn in December), a great player. Committing to spend a draft pick on LeBron James’s son could be a good decision for a team looking to sign LeBron in the 2023 offseason. It could also be a bad decision. It could be a good business decision but a bad basketball decision. There are permutations here. We’re on a bit of a collision course with this, a collision between basketball and marketing, a collision between this era of what are effectively player-GM’s and the reality that to win games, it’s probably a better idea to let the person you pay to make personnel decisions make those personnel decisions.
The bottom line on Bronny is that he’s a very good recruit but not a five-star. It’ll be surprising if he’s of one-and-done quality. It’ll be interesting to see whether that matters one bit.
The Nick Madrigal Question
Nick Madrigal’s been back for almost two weeks now, and he’s been playing a decent-sized role. Often batting leadoff, he’s got two doubles to his name, he recorded seven hits in a four-game stretch, and he’s drawn four walks. By WPA, which measures the actual impact players have on games, he’s tied with Justin Steele as the second-most positively impactful Cub since he returned, just percentage points behind Drew Smyly. His on-base percentage is .421. It’s been a good two weeks.
On the season, though, it’s still been a sad story.
Madrigal’s wRC+ sits at 66, making him 34% worse than the average MLB hitter. His xwOBA’s .282, compared to a wOBA of .265, which means he’s making better contact than his actual results indicate, but still not good contact. He’s hardly replacement level, and that’s buoyed by positive defensive numbers, which matter but can only matter so much. Madrigal isn’t going to be Javy Báez on the infield, and even if he was, that’s not going to be worth more than a win or two.
Madrigal’s importance to the Cubs is easy to spin in either direction. On the one hand, he was a hugely valuable piece at the moment he was acquired, checking in on FanGraphs’s top 50 most valuable trade chips list and standing behind only Seiya Suzuki on the preseason list of Cubs expected to be central to the franchise’s next competitive iteration. On the other, he’s hardly past a year of service time, he’s making the minimum, and he’s going to make the minimum for another year, making him akin to Adbert Alzolay in terms of actual commitment. He’s 25 years old, he’s under club control through 2026, and he came highly touted but the Cubs don’t have any actual commitment to him beyond those they have to the Alzolays and Christopher Morels and Miguel Amayas of the world.
Madrigal and Morel are intertwined, as are Madrigal and Nico Hoerner, as are even Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom. Baseball teams are assemblies of parts, and some parts can be interchanged with others, but it’s not a fully flexible system. There are expected to be four premier shortstops available on the free agent market this year. All four, plus Hoerner, could probably handle second base or third base. At the outset of the year, this wasn’t of much concern. Hoerner, not Madrigal, was the unknown, with the assumption being he’d be the one moved to another position should he be good enough to make the lineup and should a prize infielder be signed. Then, Hoerner broke out, and while broken-out players can fade (just ask Madrigal), one of the more significant Hoerner developments is that he is an absolute wizard defensively. A few of those free agents are capable of magic themselves, but with certain ones, it would be malpractice to bump Hoerner out of position unless his bat really turned disastrous.
What does all this mean? Well, for Madrigal, knock on wood but we can now be fairly convinced he’s healthy, and that the seven remaining weeks of baseball will give us a better idea of what he can be expected to be next year. There’s a universe where he explodes, and Hoerner stays hot, and maybe Morel heats back up and the Cubs suddenly have a better incentive to risk it on the infield and make their splashes in the pitching market (and through a Willson Contreras extension, which is likely tied to how aggressive the front office will be with other free agents). More likely, though, we’re just gathering data and giving Madrigal reps. Hoerner, Madrigal, Morel, and Wisdom will be expected to be part of the infield equation next year, but none will enter the offseason with a stranglehold on any one position, or even on an everyday place in the lineup. With Madrigal specifically, the question will return to a straightforward one: Can he regain the promise he’s in medium part lost?
In other Cubs news:
- Top-ish prospect Brennen Davis is getting in some minor league games before year’s end, and while he won’t get in many, it’s a positive sign regarding his recovery from the back surgery that could have sidelined him for the year. Sets him up to get back on the developmental horse this fall and winter, and then in an ideal world hit spring training running. The expectation, prior to the injury, had been that he could be up with the MLB team late this season, so a debut at some point in 2023 is definitely the goal. You just hope he gets it all back, and that the back problem is a one-off rather than the start of something nagging.
- Kyle Hendricks is going to start rehabbing as well, which doesn’t change much this year but is better than the alternative. The healthier everyone is, the better.
- The Cubs sent Anderson Espinoza down to AAA this morning as they activated Steven Brault from the Covid-but-they-don’t-say-Covid IL.
And in other MLB news:
- I didn’t give much thought to MLB’s announcement of the postseason schedule when it came out, but reading back on it, it’s not a small deal. The Wild Card Series are bests-of-three, played over three days, with just one day before the Division Series, but that’s not all that big a surprise—the point of that format in the first place was to incentivize races for the top two spots. The Division Series have no day off between Games 4 and 5, though, and the LCS have no days off between Games 5 and 6, demanding more productive innings from highly-worked relievers and quick recovery from those nagging things so many players develop to which October is usually kind (rotations may be stretched more thin, but with throwing guys on three days’ rest a little out of vogue, the early-series off day leaves a similar starting pitching script). There’s a big incentive to win series quickly, to get them over with, and there are newfound advantages of depth. It’s not the biggest thing in the world, but it isn’t meaningless. On the viewing side, with all four Wild Card Series and all four Division Series starting on the same respective day, we’re going to have two full days off in the first seven days of the playoffs. Conceivably three, though that would require four Wild Card Series sweeps, which is only 1-in-16 likely if you use a coin flip approach.
- Atlanta is now hot, winning their first two against the Mets to make their winning streak reach eight straight. They’re still four losses behind in the division, which is quite a bit at this stage (especially against a team as good as the Mets), but by winning this four-game series, they’d deny their rival a chance to pull away. They do face Max Scherzer tonight and Jacob deGrom tomorrow, and then they’ve got Houston at home this weekend, so things remain tentative. But they’re alive for a division title, and with the bye system, that’s crucial. The Mets are going to be missing Carlos Carrasco for a few weeks due to an oblique strain. Carrasco’s been good (3.64 FIP) for New York this year, but not great (4.16 xERA). They did promote well-touted first baseman Brett Baty from AAA, or rather, they’re doing that today. The news broke yesterday and might explain, in part, their unwillingness to trade him at the deadline. Maybe they viewed him as more of a short-term store of value, and therefore less expendable in the search for reinforcements elsewhere. Atlanta, meanwhile, pulled off another big pre-free agency extension, signing Michael Harris II through 2030, with options for 2031 and 2032. Harris is in the running for NL Rookie of the Year, and won’t turn 22 until March. Still, at some point you start wondering if one of these extensions could come back to bite the franchise. I guess that’s the risk baked into the late-contract expected discount.
- The White Sox are also hot, rallying against Justin Verlander last night in the seventh to tie and ultimately win their second of four against the Astros. With the wins, and with Cleveland down 2-1 in their set with Detroit, it’s a one-game gap between the Guardians and Chicago, and Minnesota’s somewhere in between them, leading the Royals two game to one in that series. None of the four are out of the Wild Card picture—Cleveland’s currently effectively tied with Toronto for fifth/sixth in the AL—but this far out, the division’s the focus, especially with the Blue Jays, Mariners, and Rays better than all three Central contenders on paper.
- The Rays have grabbed two in a row from the Yankees, going for a head-turning sweep this afternoon. With the Orioles in the same boat against the Blue Jays, those three are within a game and a half of one another around the cut line, while the Mariners have beaten the Angels twice (blowing things open in the ninth inning of each) to sit on top of Tampa Bay by half a game. The Yankees continue to slide, and doubts are growing loud, but they still lead the East by nine games. Had the Blue Jays taken advantage of these two nights, it’d be a slightly different situation, but for now, the Yankees remain just fine. Second place in the AL. Very likely, as far as these things go, to finish there.
- How good is Brandon Woodruff? He started against the Dodgers last night, and by some analyses it was just the third time all year the Dodgers have been an underdog. How good are the Dodgers? Trotting out Ryan Pepiot on the road against Brandon Woodruff was what it took for them to be an underdog. In a back-and-forth game, Milwaukee triumphed in eleven, scoring two (one earned, one having begun the inning on second) off of Craig Kimbrel, who remains a tall monument to the idea of never trusting relievers to continue their excellence. With the Cardinals taking their first two against the Rockies, it’s a two-game gap in the Central in St. Louis’s favor. For Los Angeles, Walker Buehler’s expected September return is no more. He’ll be having season-ending elbow surgery. Danny Duffy’s expected September return is also likely no more. Another setback for the lefty. Dustin May’s supposed to return from Tommy John and get the start on Saturday, which is a large bright spot. The Dodgers always have options these days.
- San Diego ran into Sandy Alcantara on Monday night, then lost again last night to fall within a game of the Brew Crew straddling the NL playoff cut line. Philadelphia’s taken two straight from Cincinnati, and San Francisco is on a little bit of a warpath, winning their fifth straight last night on walk-off home run by Brandon Crawford to get back to two games over .500 and within five of the Pads. Just three in the loss column, too. The Giants are still gasping, but there’s some oxygen there.
- To give the also-rans some attention: The A’s shut Paul Blackburn down for the year, and the Rangers fired Jon Daniels, their president of baseball ops. They’re retaining GM Chris Young, at least for now, but it’s a bit of an odd move, even if it feels natural after the firing of Chris Woodward. Were the Rangers expecting to contend this year? Were others expecting the Rangers to contend? Did I miss the memo on our collective expectations of the Rangers? A year ago, with the Joey Gallo trade, that rebuild was billed as a total teardown. Then, ownership allowed the front office to sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray to a combined $72.5M in AAV, and my impression was we all nodded and said, ‘Ok, so they want to be competitive in 2023.’ Why do you let your front office offer those deals and then demand the roster outperform its mediocre potential? Your new front office is now locked into a salary core. It’s so confusing that I feel like I’m missing something.
**
Viewing schedule for the day, second screen rotation in italics:
- 1:05 PM EDT: Cubs @ Washington, Smyly vs. Abbott (MLB TV)
- 4:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ Miami, Clevinger vs. López (MLB TV)
- 7:20 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ Atlanta, Scherzer vs. Odorizzi (MLB TV)
- 12:35 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ Cincinnati, Suárez vs. Lodolo (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- 1:10 PM EDT: Kansas City @ Minnesota, Lynch vs. Mahle (MLB TV)
- 3:00 PM EDT: Sunderland @ Sheffield United (ESPN+)
- 3:07 PM EDT: Baltimore @ Toronto, Voth vs. Stripling (MLB TV)
- 4:07 PM EDT: Seattle @ Anaheim, Kirby vs. Toussaint (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Boston @ Pittsburgh, Hill vs. Contreras (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ New York (AL), Kluber vs. Germán (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Detroit @ Cleveland, Norris vs. Quantrill (MLB TV)
- 7:45 PM EDT: Colorado @ St. Louis, Márquez vs. Montgomery (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Houston @ Chicago (AL), Valdez vs. Kopech (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ Milwaukee, Gonsolin vs. Lauer (FS1)
- 9:45 PM EDT: Arizona @ San Francisco, Davies vs. Rodón (MLB TV)
