The Browns traded Baker Mayfield to the Panthers yesterday in exchange for either a fourth or a fifth-round pick (it’s conditional upon how much Mayfield plays). It’s the end of an awkward end for Mayfield in Cleveland, one that saw him drafted first overall, placed at the helm of a cathartically good team his rookie year, tasked with taking snaps during the Freddie Kitchens debacle a season later, made a playoff quarterback in the third year, and criticized heavily for his performance in a disappointing final season, one accompanied by clips of him looking lost in the pocket and punctuated by endless commercials that grew more and more grating for frustrated fans in Ohio.
Is Baker Mayfield a good quarterback? We don’t really know. He could be, and it could be that the Browns didn’t make it happen for him. He could not be, and it could still be that he’s decent enough that the Browns could have made him look good if they hadn’t botched an advantageous situation. We may never really know, even if he wins the Panthers job, as it’s not like the Panthers are firing on every cylinder these days.
What we do know is that as long as he’s healthy—which is a legitimate question for him, and another thing that could have held him back or could just have cast doubt on the inevitable—he’ll have a chance in Carolina. He’ll have a chance to lead this team. He’ll have a chance to start over. And in a sport where certain quarterbacks (not to compare Mayfield to Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, but I’d argue this is true of both) develop aggressively a few years into their professional careers, it’s very possible Mayfield’s best years are waiting ahead of him. Karmically, many will hope they are. And on that topic: The Browns, faced with a market where everyone was pretty happy with their quarterback, got a crappy return for the guy. As they deserve.
College Realignment Update
We’ve reached the point where people are just throwing made-up conference/college combinations around on Twitter for clicks, which is a good indication that real movement is stalling. Two days ago, I would have said (and did say) that the Big 12 expanding to twenty teams was the most likely outcome. Now, I think the Pac-12 adds San Diego State and Boise State. I don’t think the Arizonas, Colorado, and Utah are going to the Big 12. That seems like something that would have happened already if it was going to happen.
There’s the possibility as well that the Pac-12 is angling for an ACC merger, something which might interest the ACC because the ACC’s TV deal is terrible for the ACC and joining with the Pac-12 might allow them to renegotiate. This would, of course, start a death spiral for each league, with most but not all of the teams ending up safely somewhere else. The question, then, I guess, is how much power schools like Wake Forest possess to stop ACC decisions they don’t like.
In the event a Pac-12/ACC merger doesn’t happen, perhaps then the Pac-12 schools of value do bolt for the Big 12. I think it’s likelier, though, that the Pac-12 does what the Big 12 just did when experiencing the same thing and adds strong athletic departments with decent-sized fanbases in non-zero media markets (Boise’s growing like crazy, already not far off the population share the Salt Lake City metro had when it first got the Jazz), because that’s the simplest thing to do and it worked out well for the Big 12.
In sum, I’m guessing the flow chart looks like this:
- Oregon and Washington (and maybe Stanford, but reporting seems to indicate Stanford is weaker in these rooms than my perception of them holds) are trying to do something, either putting together a compelling expansion package (which would most likely be Boise State and San Diego State) or creating a deal with the ACC (which is complicated and would have to offer ESPN quite a bit for ESPN to let the ACC off the hook).
- Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado are waiting to see what Oregon and Washington put together. If they don’t like it, they’re off to the Big 12. If they do like it—and remember, they only need to like it enough to prefer it over a few years of Big 12/20 membership—they stay, and the Pac-12 remains intact, and the Mountain West goes hunting, perhaps to the FCS ranks.
- If those four schools do go to the Big 12, Oregon and Washington say, “fuck it,” and join. Stanford and Cal probably would want to do this as well, rather than go independent or drop to the Mountain West (the Big Ten may call eventually, but if it were going to this summer, it would have already made that call), and I’d imagine the Big 12 would take them because of their prestige and their Bay Area footprint. I don’t think the Big 12 would find it worthwhile to add Oregon State or Washington State, because neither is especially competitive right now and each is merely peripheral to good markets (I’d take Boise State and San Diego State over Washington State or Oregon State, as much as it pains me to say it), but maybe I’m wrong on that.
The ACC/Pac-12 merger feels so far-fetched and complicated (maybe it’s football-only, but still) and it’s so hard to believe ESPN would prefer it over the ACC in its current form that I don’t think it’s actually very much on the table. Again, I think those “Four Corners” schools would’ve left for the Big 12 by now if they were going to leave. (It’s been a whole week, guys.) So, I believe we’re headed towards the Pac-12 refilling, and Boise State and San Diego State make the most sense for that.
Heading West
The Cubs start a four-game set in Los Angeles this weekend which will likely end their recent string of winning series. It’s Mark Leiter Jr. against Tony Gonsolin tonight, and while I can talk myself into that, I shouldn’t be able to talk myself into that.
Yesterday was exhilarating. The whole series was a good one for the Cubs. Had David Robertson done his normal thing in the bottom of the ninth on Monday, the Cubs might have swept it. The Cubs are playing alright.
After a rough start to the year, the Cubs offense is now 16th in the Majors in runs per game and 13th in the more comprehensive wRC+. The offense is average. It’s the pitching—25th in runs per game, 26th in FIP—that’s the problem. This, of course, ties largely back to the rotation, which is 27th in baseball in fWAR. Given the injuries to Kyle Hendricks, Marcus Stroman, Wade Miley, Drew Smyly, and Alec Mills—literally the entire intended rotation at moments in the offseason, with some quibbling possible between Mills and Justin Steele—it’s easy to now see why this team’s offseason projection was something like 75 wins and a shot at fringe playoff contention. If the Cubs had an average rotation, they’d likely be right around .500 right now, sitting just two games back of the Phillies and Cardinals for the final National League playoff spot. That’s hopeful, but it’s also frustrating.
In other news, Pete Crow-Armstrong will play in the All-Star Week Futures Game. Crow-Armstrong was a bit of an uncertain pickup when the Cubs got him for Javy Báez at last year’s deadline, recovering at the time from shoulder surgery. He’s come back strong from it, and when all the prospect rankings come out after the draft, it seems likely he’ll be in some if not all top 100’s.
As a side note on that last piece: I’m excited to see where FanGraphs ranks the Cubs’ farm system when they do their farm system rankings in a few weeks. Their rankings are formulaic, and as part of that do a good job of capturing the value of diverse assets—the value of having a lot of Christopher Morel-type guys even if they don’t jump out like Pete Crow-Armstrong does. So, they tend to rank the Cubs highly these days, and I tend to think they’re right to do that. The Cubs could have a top-five farm system by their count by August 3rd. That’d be cause for excitement.
Baseball Bits
Kyle Schwarber homered twice last night, but the Phillies still lost to the Nationals, 3-2. Meanwhile, an Aaron Judge grand slam sparked a late Yankees rally which turned a 4-0 game into a 16-0 final. The blast was Judge’s 30th homer of the year. Schwarber is second in the bigs with 28.
The Mets survived a tight one with the Reds, scoring on a one-out Starling Marte double to tie things in the ninth before winning in the tenth. It was a big victory for the NL East leaders, as Max Fried went six scoreless for Atlanta, who beat the Cardinals 3-0. Fried did leave the game with right glute tightness, but he currently says he plans to make his next start.
Brayan Bello’s debut was nothing too special. Four innings, three walks, four earned runs, only two strikeouts. Corey Kluber continued his strong year (3.44 FIP) with six scoreless innings of his own, as the Rays won comfortably against the Red Sox, 7-1.
Shohei Ohtani broke the latest Angels losing streak, striking out ten Marlins over seven innings, driving in the go-ahead runs, and stealing a base for good measure.
The White Sox came back from five separate deficits against the Twins and only gave the lead back on four of them. Leury García hit the eventual walkoff single. With the Tigers sweeping the Guardians, the Twins now lead Cleveland by four and a half and Chicago by five and a half, though the pair only trails by two and three in the loss column, respectively. Jorge Polanco homered twice in this game for the Twins.
The Giants came back from an early 4-0 deficit to beat the Diamondbacks and avoid a sweep, gaining a game on the Phillies and Cardinals in the process. The Dodgers rallied late themselves to beat the Rockies. The Padres were idle.
Finally, the Blue Jays avoided a sweep against the A’s. They now sit half a game back of Tampa Bay and Boston.
In newsier news:
- Chris Sale walked five in a rehab start in Worcester, then went berserk in the clubhouse, which, I get the temptation. I too have been very distraught after certain baseball games this year, and those are outside my control. You just hope he did the cleaning up himself (I don’t know that he did).
- Eduardo Rodriguez, on the restricted list for undisclosed reasons (that’s kind of the nature of the restricted list) has been radio silent to the Tigers for the last three weeks. Hopefully everything’s ok there.
- Evan Longoria’s going on the IL with an oblique strain. The third baseman’s been great for the Giants when healthy, with a 123 wRC+ after missing the first month or so of the season due to undergoing surgery on a finger.
Hockey News
As far as I can tell, the hockey news from the last week or so is as follows:
- The draft is tonight.
- The Lightning traded Ryan McDonagh to the Predators.
- The Sharks hired Mike Grier to be their new general manager, and he’s the first Black general manager in NHL history.
I’m sorry if I’m missing things, but at the same time, if you know I’m missing things, you’re probably getting your hockey news elsewhere, and if you don’t know, well, then you probably don’t care enough about hockey to know. We’ll get there, guys. We’ll get a handle on hockey.
**
We’ll try to catch up on the NBA offseason tomorrow. Emphasis on “try.” Viewing schedule for today, second screen rotation in italics:
- 2:10 PM EDT: Kansas City @ Houston, Bubic vs. Verlander (MLB TV)
- 4:05 PM EDT: Washington @ Philadelphia, Adon vs. Falter (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Boston, Cole vs. Winckowski (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Miami @ New York (NL), Castano vs. Williams (MLB TV)
- 7:20 PM EDT: St. Louis @ Atlanta, Liberatore vs. Strider (MLB TV)
- 9:40 PM EDT: San Francisco @ San Diego, Webb vs. Musgrove (MLB TV)
- 10:10 PM EDT: Cubs @ Los Angeles, Leiter vs. Gonsolin (MLB TV)
- 10:10 PM EDT: Toronto @ Seattle, TBD vs. Gonzales (MLB TV)
