Joe’s Notes: How Bad of an Umpire Is Ángel Hernández?

It’s tempting, with Ángel Hernández’s latest legal action against Major League Baseball, to dismiss the accusations. It’s tempting to say, “Well, this guy sucks at being an umpire, so maybe that’s why his reviews were so bad.” I don’t want to do that here. If Ángel Hernández has evidence that MLB was manipulating performance reviews in order to discriminate, that evidence should certainly be shown, and if I’m being honest, it’s fairly believable that MLB would have inconsistent umpire reviews through their own incompetency, at the very least (and the unavailability of Statcast data during part of the timeframe in question).

Still, it’s worth examining how bad Ángel Hernández is. Because we can do that.

Ump Scorecards, God bless them, tracks this stuff, at least for balls and strikes. And of the 84 umpires who’ve called 100 or more games behind the plate since the 2015 season began, Ángel Hernández is far from the worst. He’s the 21^st-worst. That’s on the bad side of average, but it’s not as bad as Joe West, who comes out 4^th-worst, or Mike Winters, who comes out worst. Calling balls and strikes is hard. It’s ok to acknowledge that. Hernández isn’t great at it relative to his peers, but his peers are hopefully the best in the world. It’s possible his notoriety has more to do with comportment (similarly to West, though West was evidently much worse, at least by the end).

Comportment, fittingly, is actually why MLB said they never made Hernández a crew chief, which is the thing that sparked the lawsuit. They said he wasn’t a good enough leader, and that he wasn’t good enough at managing situations under pressure. That’s a lot harder to measure than balls and strikes, though. How would you do it? Ejections would be a good starting stat, I guess. Which umpires are heating up the room, and which are cooling it, and which do you want managing crucial situations in October?

The Rangers Did Not Win

Well, crap.

The bets will be fine—might lose a little on the futures portfolio, but we were prepared for that. Part of the game. The Rangers will probably not be fine. Notably on our side, because Gelo reacts so quickly to results, the Lightning’s rating is approaching that of the Avalanche. Curious if the markets will react similarly.

For our betting, we’re planning on having our F1 bet or bets tomorrow and our NASCAR and IndyCar bets on Sunday. Going to stick with the low number on those.

Is Game 4 a Putaway Game for the Celtics?

We have, of course, seen teams come down from 3-1, but effectively, the Celtics can move from something like 70% likely to win the series up to something like 85%, or they can drop from 70% to something more like 45%. The Warriors, of course, have the inverse of those probabilities, but that’s the cost of a Game 4 in a series where the teams are as comparable in quality as these two are.

Super (Duper) Regionals

Very fun weekend of baseball on TV. In over our heads if we try to analyze it too much, but that’s the fun thing about college baseball: They just play it. And they play it so hard. And they play it with such emotion. It’s an invigorating sport to watch, just as college softball is. Congratulations to any Oklahoma fans in the room.

Cubs vs. Yankees

It’s still unclear what the Cubs’ pitching plan is for Sunday, but the situation is effectively the same in each game: The Cubs are underdogs, with a good-enough starter that they might have a chance. With each starter, there’s big downside, but the upside is at least there. That’s kind of the situation up and down the lineup.

Could be an interesting weekend personnel-wise, with many hoping on the DFA of Jason Heyward (who we do think is a good guy, by the way—gotta remind ourselves of that every now and then) as other position players return from the IL. If I had to guess, I’d guess it happens, but it’s also not too early for a little trade, and there are plenty of guys one could see the Cubs sending down to Iowa, at least for a stint. That does keep more possibilities open, which does have value.

***

Viewing schedule for the weekend, second screen rotation in italics.

Friday:

• 12:00 PM EDT: Texas @ East Carolina, Game 1 (ESPN2)
• 3:00 PM EDT: Oklahoma @ Virginia Tech, Game 1 (ESPN2)
• 6:00 PM EDT: Notre Dame @ Tennessee, Game 1 (ESPN2)
• 7:05 PM EDT : Cubs @ Yankees, Miley vs. Severino (MLB TV)
• 8:10 PM EDT: Rays @ Twins, Rasmussen vs. Smeltzer (Apple TV+)
• 8:30 PM EDT: Louisville @ Texas A&M, Game 1 (ESPNU)
• 9:00 PM EDT: Warriors @ Celtics, Game 4 (ABC)
• 10:15 PM EDT: Dodgers @ Giants, Buehler vs. Junis (ESPN+/MLB TV)

Saturday:

• 11:00 AM EDT: Arkansas @ North Carolina, Game 1 (ESPN)
• 12:00 PM EDT: Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma, Game 2 (ESPNU)
• 12:00 PM EDT: East Carolina vs. Texas, Game 2 (ESPN2)
• 2:00 PM EDT: Tennessee vs. Notre Dame, Game 2 (ESPN)
• 3:00 PM EDT: Texas A&M vs. Louisville, Game 2 (ESPN2)
• 4:00 PM EDT: Mississippi @ Southern Miss, Game 1 (ESPNU)
• 7:15 PM EDT: Cubs @ Yankees, Swarmer vs. Montgomery (FOX)
• 8:00 PM EDT: Rangers @ Lightning, Game 6 (ESPN)
• 10:00 PM EDT: Auburn @ Oregon State, Game 1 (ESPN2)
• 10:10 PM EDT: Red Sox @ Mariners, Wacha vs. Kirby (ESPN+/MLB TV)
• 10:30 PM EDT: UConn @ Stanford, Game 1 (ESPNU)

Sunday (possible Super Regional Games 3, so TBD on that):

• 7:00 PM EDT: Azerbaijan Grand Prix (ESPN)
• 11:35 AM EDT: A’s @ Guardians, Irvin vs. Quantrill (Peacock)
• 1:00 PM EDT: North Carolina vs. Arkansas, Game 2 (TBA)
• 1:30 PM EDT: IndyCar @ Road America (NBC)
• 1:35 PM EDT: Cubs @ Yankees, TBD vs. Taillon (MLB TV)
• 4:00 PM EDT: Southern Miss @ Mississippi, Game 2 (TBA)
• 4:00 PM EDT: NASCAR Cup Series @ Sonoma (FS1)
• 4:05 PM EDT: Dodgers @ Giants, Kershaw vs. Rodón (MLB TV)
• 7:00 PM EDT: Mets @ Angels, Walker vs. Sandoval (ESPN)
• 7:00 PM EDT: Stanford @ UConn, Game 2 (TBA)
• 10:00 PM EDT: Oregon State @ Auburn, Game 2 (ESPN2)