We kind of take postseason formats for granted until there’s a concerted effort to change them, and even then, there isn’t a ton of focus on things as simple as the home-field/court/ice advantage structure of a seven-game set. Let’s do a thought experiment, using yesterday’s basketball and hockey games and a hypothetical baseball series.
Yesterday, on the basketball court, the Warriors won Game 2 at home, shifting the series to a 1-1 split in which they have either two or three road games left and either one or two home games left. Had they lost, they’d have no guaranteed home games left, and would be one loss away from facing elimination on the road, which is almost identical to the situation the Lightning found themselves in entering yesterday’s game.
Yesterday, on the hockey rink, the Lightning won Game 3 at home, shifting the series to a 2-1 deficit (from their perspective) in which they have either one or two road games left and either one or two home games left. Had they lost, they’d still have only one guaranteed home game left, but they would actively be facing elimination.
Now, the thought experiment: Would you rather be the Lightning, down 2-1 but playing Game 4 at home, the Warriors should they lose Game 3, down 2-1 but with Game 7 potentially at home, a hypothetical baseball team down 2-1 but playing Games 4 and 5 at home, or a hypothetical baseball team down 2-1 but with potential Games 6 and 7 remaining at home?
In all four cases, the series has no home-field/court/ice advantage if it goes all seven games. Two games are remaining in each locale. But the 2-2-1-1-1 format, compared to the 2-3-2 format, creates more pressure (in my view) on the Lightning to win Game 4 than it does on a hypothetical baseball team in the same position. If the Lightning lose tomorrow, they’re immediately facing elimination on the road with no momentum at their back. If the hypothetical baseball team were to lose Game 4, they’d still have a chance to get off the mat at home before getting to go on the road for a pair with a little momentum and all the pressure on their opponent.
For whatever it’s worth, I’d rank the four situations as follows:
- 1: Baseball team down 2-1 playing Game 4 on the road: Just need to steal one of the next two to get to being two home games away from winning.
- 2: Baseball team down 2-1 playing Game 4 at home: Even with a loss, another home game’s in the back pocket to get off the mat.
- 3: Warriors, hypothetically, down 2-1 playing Game 4 on the road: Even with a loss, they get to try to get right at home.
- 4: Lightning, in reality, down 2-1 playing Game 4 at home: If they lose, they immediately face elimination on the road.
Best-of-something series, whatever their length, turn fast. In the baseball format, they don’t turn as quickly, and they rarely put quite as much pressure on anyone until the end. Part of that, to be fair, might be due to the comparable size of home-field/court/ice advantage between the sports, or at least my perceptions of it.
As far as the series themselves after yesterday:
It didn’t really feel like the Rangers blew it in Tampa, even with the 2-0 lead, though that may be a feeling specific to me. Maybe it’s because they let it back to a one-goal game so quickly? Whatever the feeling, they’re in a good spot overall, still. Worst case, they’re back to even after tomorrow and still have home-ice advantage. They’ve got margin for error, and it doesn’t yet feel like the Lightning do.
On the basketball side, it’s been an impressive series of runs so far, with that third quarter from the Warriors in Game 2 a strong answer to the Celtics’ fourth quarter in Game 1. As a measurement of how much home-court matters, and/or how much the Celtics have changed perceptions: The Warriors were implied by betting markets to be just shy of a 60/40 favorite at the series’ outset. Now, with the Celtics effectively holding home-court, the odds are at 50/50. That’s not a huge difference, but it’s meaningful.
The Cubs Hung In There
A real bummer of a loss last night, but the Cubs finishing the week on a 4-3 split after losing both halves of the Brewers doubleheader a week ago isn’t a bad result. We saw three straight solid starts from young pitchers (the existence of their potential long-term viability’s debatable in each case but Caleb Kilian’s, but all the starts were solid), Frank Schwindel’s back to replacement-level by fWAR, P.J. Higgins made a little noise…there were good things from the weekend. It would’ve been a full-on victory cry had the Cubs simply done the expected and won once they had the winning run on third in the tenth, but it was a fine weekend capping off a fine week, and that’s at least better than bad.
In concerning news, top prospect Brennen Davis had back surgery on Thursday to address a cluster of blood vessels reportedly (per the Tribune) pushing against a nerve. It’s a weird-sounding ailment, and it’s hard to know how significant the surgery was, but the word from The Athletic is that despite there being no structural damage, he might not return this year. So, potentially fine physically, potentially not fine developmentally? Really hard to know, and a good reminder to not place too many eggs in any one prospect basket.
In logistical news, Kilian was sent back down to AAA after his start on Saturday, Robel Garcia has left the Cubs to play in Korea, Willson Contreras caught a bunch of innings over the weekend despite that hit-by-pitch on his ankle freaking us all out, Drew Smyly’s going to be out for even longer than for an average oblique injury, David Bote could be back at any time now, Alec Mills might finally be back after one last rehab start, Conner Menez was designated for assignment, Anderson Espinoza is up full-time now, Mark Leiter Jr. has been optioned back down, Jonathan Villar is (per David Ross) returning tomorrow, Seiya Suzuki might be back in a few days, and Chris Martin is still absent due to what is presumed to be a family tragedy (since he was first placed on the bereavement list). Wishes for comfort and/or healing to him and his.
It’s a little East Coast road trip this week, with two against the Orioles tomorrow and Wednesday before three in the Bronx over the weekend. From there, the Cubs host the Padres and Braves for a full week. Tough ten games after the two in Baltimore. Would be nice to steal two there, finding a way to win one feels essential. It would just be a lot nicer to finish in the 70’s in wins than in the 60’s, especially because that would say something good about what young talent really is there for this franchise.
Are the Angels Falling Apart?
Going around the MLB…
Big movers this last week:
- The Yankees swept the Angels and Tigers, moving to 39-15 (that’s a 117-win pace) and reclaiming firm control of the AL East, where they’re now 74% likely to win, per FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds.
- The Cardinals swept the Padres at home before taking three of five at Wrigley, pulling within half a game of the Brewers. They’re now over 50% likely to make the playoffs again, something that’s been rare this year.
- The Dodgers were swept by the Pirates, then split four with the Mets. They’re still nearly two-in-three likely to win the West, but it opened things up a bit for the Giants and Padres.
- The Angels followed up their sweep in New York by being swept in Philadelphia, with brutal losses in multiple flavors. Friday, they were blown out, falling 10-0 on the same day the Phillies canned Joe Girardi. Sunday, they blew a 6-2 eight-inning lead by way of a game-tying Bryce Harper grand slam and a walk-off three-run Bryston Stott homer in the ninth after Anaheim had, bless their hearts, briefly reclaimed the lead. The Angels are now below .500, half a game behind the previously left-for-dead Red Sox. They’re still 35% likely to make the playoffs, but that’s a far cry from their division contention earlier in the year. Eleven straight losses now. Boston and the National League’s New York come to town this week.
Best position players:
- Yordan Álvarez, Houston (1.0 fWAR): In a week highlighted by the 24-year-old slugger signing a big six-year extension, he raked in every single game, reaching base at least twice in each contest, bopping four home runs, tripling, and doubling. Ridiculous week.
- Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs (0.8 fWAR): Through a pair of injury scares, the Cubs’ backstop homered three times, and reached base at least thrice in four of his seven games.
- Alejandro Kirk, Toronto (0.7 fWAR): The Blue Jays have their work cut out for them trying to keep up with the Yankees, but they’re in second place in the East, and their catcher’s a big reason why. Only Contreras has more fWAR among men behind the plate.
- Andrés Giménez, Cleveland (0.7 fWAR): A big week for the middle infielder, who was all defense last year but is making a ton of noise with the bat right now. His FanGraphs prospect writeup from 2020 says, “He likely won’t hit for impact power,” but among middle infielders with 140 or more plate appearances, only Willy Adems, Jazz Chisholm, and Jose Altuve have a higher ISO so far this season (ISO is the gap between a player’s slugging percentage and batting average and is used as a proxy for power). If you prove the one doubt wrong on an otherwise glowing outlook for your career, you probably are having a great career.
Best pitcher:
- David Robertson, Chicago Cubs (0.5 fWAR): There were too many guys at 0.4 to list them all, but we wanted to highlight that a dude who threw just 4.1 innings was the most valuable pitcher in the Majors on the week. Ridiculous. Great signing by the Cubs. Knock on all the wood that he can keep doing it for another eight weeks.
Will Gonzaga Have a Point Guard Problem?
Meant to cover this on Friday, but in the first post-NBA Draft decision big transfer movement, Malachi Smith—who shot 40% from three last year at Chattanooga—is headed to Spokane. Just another asset for the Zags, whose starting lineup may go something like Nolan Hickman/Rasir Bolton/Malachi Smith/Julian Strawther/Drew Timme, with Efton Reid, Anton Watson, and Hunter Sallis rounding out the rotation. If that is the rotation, it’ll be an experienced one: Sallis played the fewest minutes of any of those guys in 2021-22, and he was on the court a third of the time.
The biggest question with the roster is what Mark Few will do at the point. For years, Gonzaga’s had a single clear point guard. It’s possible that will happen again this year, potentially by way of Smith, but it isn’t immediately clear who’s going to bring the ball up and if it’s going to be one primary guy. Smith, like Rasir Bolton, might operate better off the ball, especially against the higher-quality defenses Gonzaga will play in November, December, and March. It’s not the worst biggest question to have, but point guard play is a big deal, making it something to keep an eye on.
Brock Purdy: QB2 or Practice Squad?
Brock Purdy signed a four-year deal with the 49ers, and to be honest, I’m not entirely sure what that means. The presumption in San Francisco is that the Niners are going to trade Jimmy Garoppolo, making Trey Lance the starter and leaving Purdy competing with Nate Sudfeld for the backup job. Sudfeld’s on a one-year deal paying more than twice as much as Purdy’s does on average, but the unclear part to me is how the whole release-the-guy-and-try-to-sign-him-to-the-practice-squad thing works differently based on the size and length of the player’s contract. I really don’t know that, and I don’t have a great grasp on the specifics of the third-string quarterback rules, but based on what I’m seeing:
It’s possible Purdy will be the 49ers’ backup this year, it’s possible he’ll end up on their practice squad, and it’s possible he’ll still end up somewhere else. His floor for this year seems to be a practice squad, which isn’t a bad floor for a guy like him, but is just so much less secure than getting into that backup QB rotation league-wide. Hopefully he can beat out Sudfeld. Barring injury or something odd happening with Garoppolo, I’d imagine we’ll see him a lot during preseason games.
The Bets
Rough day yesterday, mostly for Gelo. We lost a unit each on NASCAR and IndyCar, but only a unit each, and that might be our new approach to motorsports: Pick the driver we think offers the best combination of value and probability, but only pick that driver. We can’t lose too much on these, but they offer so much upside…that said, even as I write this the fear of picking the wrong driver when torn between two or three feels concerning. We’ll see. In the meantime, I need to go figure out which hedges to place so that the Avalanche don’t undo all Gelo’s good work in the futures sphere.
Baseball and Softball Everywhere
In a shocker, Oklahoma just lost the first semifinal game of the day against UCLA in Oklahoma City, so we’re going to a do-or-die one for those two in a little bit on ESPN. Winner goes to the championship best-of-three against either Oklahoma State or Texas, and man, apologies to UCLA but OU, arguably one of the best college teams in any sport in history, facing either of their archrivals for the national championship would be a great time.
On the baseball field, lots of Regional Championships going on today. All quite fun.
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Viewing schedule, today/tonight (second screen rotation in italics):
- 12:00 PM EDT: UCLA vs. Oklahoma, Women’s College World Series Semifinal (ESPN)
- 2:30 PM EDT: UCLA vs. Oklahoma, WCWS Semifinal Game 2 if necessary (ESPN)
- 4:00 PM EDT: Oregon State vs. Vanderbilt, Oregon State Regional Championship (SEC Network)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Oklahoma State vs. Texas, WCWS Semifinal (ESPN)
- 8:00 PM EDT: Avalanche @ Oilers, Game 4 (TNT)
- 9:30 PM EDT: Oklahoma State vs. Texas, WCWS Semifinal Game 2 if necessary (ESPN)
- 9:38 PM EDT: Red Sox @ Angels, Wacha vs. Syndergaard (MLB TV)
- 9:40 PM EDT: Mets @ Padres, Carrasco vs. Snell (MLB TV)
