Something we’ve landed on over the last few years is that in the Cubs’ fall from power, there were really only two bad personnel decisions. The first was hiring Chili Davis. The second was non-tendering Kyle Schwarber.
The first one was arguably the more significant, in part because it led to the second. Find a capable hitting coach prior to 2018 and the Cubs likely win at least one more regular season game, make that Division Series, and potentially stretch the NLCS appearance streak to four, lightening the incentive for Tom Ricketts to cry poor after 2020 and stopping the narrative that Schwarber emblemizes the “broken” offense before it starts. Even in its context, though, the second decision was bad.
The decision to cut Schwarber was cynical, built on Ricketts’s financial lie to fans, and it resulted in a guy being forced to walk whom all reasonable expectations said was worth at least a win or two. Schwarber’s outperformed expectations in the two years since, averaging 39 home runs while hitting a fine .238 (for those who still insist on measuring the guy by his batting average), but even if he’d maintained his 2017-2020 season-length adjusted average, the Cubs refused to pay a 1.5-WAR guy a 1.0-WAR guy’s salary. It was stupid, and our best understanding is that it was an emotional decision made under ownership pressure to cut costs and the front office’s questionable endeavor (the same one that brought Davis to town) to get away from the all-bopper lineup that had failed to procure a second pennant after 2016.
It could be the lack of fairness and the lack of respect and the lack of reason that has made Kyle Schwarber’s success since such a happy thing for those of us who loved him in Chicago. But it isn’t really any of that. We just like the guy. How could you not? It isn’t even bittersweet. Schwarber, for a lot of us, occupies a chamber of the heart that removes most of the bitterness. Yeah, I’m still pissed the Cubs cut Schwarber, but there’s no tinge of sadness when he goes yard, or when Dave Dombrowski calls the slugger “the best clubhouse presence he’s ever been around.” Kris Bryant performing well is bittersweet. Javy Báez performing well is bittersweet. Anthony Rizzo performing well is bittersweet. But Schwarber, somehow, was the coolest of all of them, a man who loved firefighters and Bud Heavy and who famously told Theo Epstein, as a college kid, “It really fucking pisses me off when people say I can’t catch.”
So, as the NLCS begins tonight, Schwarber’s first shot at a pennant since the 2017 series against the Dodgers, I hope the Phillies left fielder keeps raking, and keeps having fun, and keeps getting his well-deserved due as the veteran presence every postseason contender should want. I hope Jed Hoyer kicks himself a little bit. I hope Theo Epstein thinks hard about that Chili Davis hire. And I hope Tom Ricketts recognizes that his bad-faith penny-pinching ran a guy out of Wrigleyville whose number should have eventually flown from the foul pole.
The Series Itself
As with the Wild Card Series and the Division Series, here’s how three different projections (FanGraphs’s Depth Charts, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS, and betting markets) view the NLCS:
Depth Charts: 51.2% San Diego
ZiPS: ???
Betting Markets: 52.4% San Diego
I’m not sure why FanGraphs doesn’t have ZiPS posted, but being frequently behind on work myself, I’m sure there’s a great reason, like that they kept putting off getting the conference tiebreakers into a separate college football model of theirs and now the Wake Forest playoff probability number is wonky.
Anyway, the narrative and the numbers are fairly aligned here, all generally saying the same thing: We don’t know what to expect. It’s a tossup, it’s an absolute tossup, it’s a beautiful little tossup.
The Padres are going with Yu Darvish and Blake Snell in Games 1 and 2, and I assume Joe Musgrove in Game 3. The Phillies are going with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in Games 1 and 2, and then I don’t know, do they go with Ranger Suárez for Game 3 or do they turn to Noah Syndergaard for another semi-opener stint? I haven’t seen it announced anywhere, but I’d assume they stick with Suárez.
San Diego does enjoy more starting pitching depth, but as with Philadelphia, it runs out quickly. Mike Clevinger cannot be trusted right now. Sean Manaea evidently isn’t trusted right now. The Phillies have their mix of Syndergaard and potentially Kyle Gibson or Bailey Falter (their roster for the series hasn’t been announced as of this writing), but they, likewise, can all not be trusted. We’ll see if David Robertson’s activated or not—the Phillies seemed to get away with their thinned bullpen a bit in the NLDS—but his absence shouldn’t move the needle too dramatically, even if his appearances figure to be high-leverage in nature.
It’s pretty simply two good teams going at it. Two of the best six teams in the game, per Depth Charts, who both underachieved across the regular season (in part due to playing in tough divisions) but have nonetheless landed here, competing for a pennant. For either, it’d be historic. For both, it’ll be dramatic. San Diego might be a “small market,” but it’s a large city. Philadelphia is not a small market. We lack a big National League brand, but this is how brands get big. Bon voyage, NLCS.
Who Does the Rain Help?
The Yankees get to freshen up their bullpen, and Shane Bieber will still only be on three days of rest even if he does get in there tonight, so in the short term, yesterday’s rainout helps the Yankees. In the long term, though, it’s just more assistance for the Astros, who are benefiting from this schedule and from taking care of business and will likely provide a strong counterpoint to those wailing that an extra few days rest is somehow a terrible disadvantage for top seeds just because two good teams lost to two other good teams in the National League Division Series. It’s a do-or-die game, our second of the postseason so far, and it should be a riot.
A Thought About Matt Campbell
The Iowa State loss (on Saturday, to Texas, in Austin) was sad, and it was enraging, and it was the kind of game that leaves your stomach just a little in your chest for the rest of your day while your fists clench now and then and bat at the air. But there was a moment, after the Xavier Hutchinson drop, where a good thing happened.
For those who didn’t watch the game, Iowa State nearly won it late in the fourth quarter when Hutchinson found himself all alone near the Texas ten-yard line, a slightly underthrown, off-path ball flying his direction. He didn’t have time to comfortably settle under it, but he half-dove/half-fell into the ball, and it landed in his arms, and then his elbow hit the ground and the ball popped out. Incomplete. The drive continued.
Hutchinson was shaken up on the play. he sat out second down. But prior to third down, he came jogging up the sideline, catching his breath and preparing to reenter the game. Matt Campbell called a timeout, getting his star receiver those necessary breaths. Then, the moment happened. Campbell, who had flashed two thumbs up to Hutchinson immediately after the drop, while the wideout was still slowly climbing to his feet in disbelief, pulled himself in front of the kid and gave him some sort of pep talk, after which Iowa State went right back to their guy. A pass over the middle to Hutchinson. A twenty-yard gain, the receiver ducking and weaving into the secondary. A first down achieved, the game alive.
Iowa State lost the game on the next play. Hunter Dekkers fumbled during a hit that sure looked like targeting at the time, but I never went back to parse the rule book and Iowa State had other chances to make the game theirs. Iowa State lost. But the Campbell/Hutchinson moment remains.
It’s easy to overrate Matt Campbell as a football coach, and it’s easy to overrate all public figures’ personal morality. I know little of the latter when it comes to Campbell. But wherever his tenure in Ames goes, and wherever his tenure as a professional coach of football takes him, I’m glad Iowa State got a guy who knows that the thing to do after your best player inexplicably drops a pass is to give him two thumbs up. And to call timeout. And to give him a pep talk. And to get the ball right back in his hands.
The NBA Season Begins Tonight
Not a whole lot to add. The NBA has the MLB effect where the country pays attention right away and then loses focus and then regains focus, except with baseball the “right away” period lasts longer. Good games tonight. Probably good games tomorrow, too, but it is going to be hard to notice those.
Trying
We’re changing up this housekeeping section to just a list of everything we’re trying to do. Here’s the general order of operations on my side (Stu has more in his notes today):
- Re-launch Gelo for 2022-23 NHL season (and get up to speed on NHL season to-date)
- Get conference tiebreakers into college football model
- Get these notes caught up on the MLB offseason (which is happening) and the NHL/NFL/NBA seasons (which are also happening, though I remain skeptical that the Packers are actually playing games—this seems like a fakeout)
- Catch up on college football futures
- Catch up on soccer futures
- Start NHL, NBA futures
- Build out college basketball models for 2022-23 (both men’s & women’s)
**
Viewing schedule, second screen in italics:
MLB
- 4:07 PM EDT: Cleveland @ New York (AL) – Game 5, Civale vs. Cortes (TBS)
- 8:03 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ San Diego – Game 1, Wheeler vs. Darvish (FS1)
NBA
- 7:30 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ Boston (TNT)
- 10:00 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ Golden State (TNT)
