The weekend draws nigh.
Four More Years (of Four)
The College Football Playoff is evidently sticking with the four-team format through 2025, and…that’s fine by me. I don’t know, I guess I’ve kind of reached indifference on the playoff format. Four is fine, twelve will be fine if/when it happens, some formats are better than others but this one isn’t terrible by any stretch. In fact, it’s close to my preference, which is a variable number of teams each invited if they pass the threshold above which one can reasonably say they’re worthy of a chance to win the national championship. Since that isn’t going to happen, I’ll take this one instead. Also, easier for us to model this way.
For Iowa State, though, this is bad news. The twelve-team format gave fuel to Cyclone dreams, and the four-team format doesn’t look great for our guys. They’ll likely always have to go 12-1 to gain admittance, and while this might come as a shock, that’s hard to do. Not particularly likely in the next four years, even when Oklahoma and Texas leave the conference, should that happen in that timeframe.
Who’s Going to Minor League Spring Training?
As we point out from time to time, the MLBPA doesn’t represent (most) minor leaguers, meaning players not on the 40-man roster are still on track to start their seasons on time. This is a really good thing for player development. Really, really good. You want minor leaguers playing. Also might be a good thing for us, as fans. Maybe we can get into some minor league races. I don’t know that we will, but a month and a half from Opening Day, it at least feels plausible, and we’ll take what we need to get through.
Some top prospects are on the 40-man roster, of course, so that’s too bad. Of the Cubs’ top guys on FanGraphs, though, the top nine are all off the 40-man, and beyond the top six it’s lottery-ticket-land anyway. Brennen Davis, Kevin Alcantara, Owen Cassie, James Triantos, Reginald Preciado, and Cristian Hernandez will all be getting their at-bats.
A Bubble Bash in Ames
Iowa State hosts Oklahoma tomorrow at 1:00 PM Central Time. The game’s on ESPN+ with that Big 12 tag atop it (still unsure how this differs from normal ESPN+, if it differs at all).
It’s a tough game for the Cyclones, who are safely in the tournament as of today, but not that safely. If they can go just 3-4 the rest of the way, as our model expects, they should be comfortably in. Anything less than that, we’re probably dealing with some uncertainty. This is one of the four games remaining in which the Cyclones should be favored (the others being the home games against WVU and OK State and a theoretical opening-round game against WVU in Kansas City). Winning it would likely bump up the median projection to 3-3, potentially get ISU back to thinking 7 or 8-seed, and at the very least hold onto the breathing room. Losing, again, would make it dreadfully necessary to win on Wednesday against the Mountaineers, and again the following Wednesday against the Pokes, and then again that next Wednesday against…you get the picture.
Oklahoma’s in a bubble fix of their own. They didn’t play all that tough of a nonconference schedule, and they went 10-3 against it, but projected to finish just 6-12 in the Big 12, that puts them on pace to wind up exactly .500 after an expected quarterfinal loss in the conference tournament. Somehow blind the committee from their record, and they might be a tournament team, with wins over Texas Tech and Arkansas and only one legitimately bad loss (Butler beat them in overtime in Norman). As it stands, though, they’re at risk of missing even the NIT, with narrow windows all over the place. 29th in KenPom. Projected to finish .500. Very much like that 2019 Texas team.
The Sooners are coming off consecutive two-point losses to Kansas and Texas, the latter of which came in overtime and the former of which came in Lawrence. Again, they’re a good team. Very much like that 2019 Texas team.
They’re effective at scoring inside, which can give Iowa State fits (and gave Iowa State fits once before, though they also hit seven of twelve threes in that game). Defensively, they’re sound, especially on the perimeter, though their in-league three-point defense is worst in the Big 12. They’re prone to turning the ball over, which provides a big opportunity, and they don’t get to the line all that often, preferring to shoot outside (which might contribute to their efficiency in the paint). It’s not a great matchup for ISU, but it isn’t a terrible one, and given Iowa State’s offense has shown no signs of healing itself, defense is probably going to have to lead the way.
Again, a reminder: How far this team has come, how widely this team has outperformed expectations. But man, would be nice to make the tournament, and to not play in Dayton.
The Weekend’s Big Games
Contenders:
Gonzaga hosts Santa Clara at 9:00 PM EST tomorrow on something called ROOT SPORTS, which I think is Pacific Northwest-specific and means if you want to watch this, you’re going to have to go through the WCC website (there are worse things in the world). Santa Clara’s decent, on the fringe of the NIT, but Gonzaga, the home team, should handle them with ease. It’s important right now for the Zags to win with authority, because they’re ranked 1st by NET and KenPom but only 12th each by SOR and KPI, meaning they may need to hold onto their best-team status emphatically in order to avoid being held down on the 2-line by their clearly not-best résumé.
Arizona hosts Oregon at 10:00 PM EST tomorrow on ESPN. Oregon’s a talented mess, which is a terrible combination for Arizona but does leave this as basically a take-care-of-business game for the Wildcats.
Kentucky hosts Alabama at 1:00 PM EST tomorrow on CBS. Dangerous game, but also one where Kentucky can flex their muscle a bit, and since Alabama’s narrative outpaces Alabama’s results, it could help catch Kentucky’s narrative up to Kentucky’s own performance.
Possibilities:
Baylor hosts TCU at 12:00 PM EST tomorrow on ESPN2. Dangerous game for the Bears, but also an easier one in which to figure themselves out with the current, depleted roster than the other night’s was against Texas Tech. We should have a decent read on these guys by the end of next weekend provided nobody else gets hurt, especially with LJ Cryer back on the court in some capacity.
Auburn goes to Florida tomorrow at 2:00 PM EST on ESPN, and this is one Auburn could well lose. Lot of trap game fingerprints, though with Mississippi coming up on Wednesday, there’s no one too substantial to whom one would think the Tigers would look ahead. We’ve seen a few instances in which Auburn’s struggled badly against teams worse than these Gators, but it’s been two weeks since the last of those. Maybe they’re rounding into form. Not a bad opportunity to prove some of the naysayers wrong. Including me. I am an Auburn naysayer.
Kansas goes to Morgantown to play a desperate West Virginia. That’s tomorrow night at 8:00 PM EST on ESPN. KU’s getting close to wrapping up the Big 12 regular season title, but a loss would let Baylor and Texas Tech right back in, and West Virginia, like everyone in the Big 12, is dangerous at worst, especially at home.
Houston goes to Wichita State, who’s been uncharacteristically quiet this year. That game’s on Sunday at 1:00 PM EST, also on ESPN, and much like Auburn and Kansas’s game, it’s risky, even with the visitors clear favorites.
Villanova hosts Georgetown tomorrow at 5:00 PM EST on FOX, and this should not be dangerous. Georgetown is in much worse shape than you probably imagine, or than you are even now probably imagining yourself imagining. They grade out as slightly worse than Samford and slightly better than Norfolk State.
Other Games of Note:
Tennessee goes to Arkansas tomorrow at 4:00 PM EST (ESPN), and if the Vols are going to prove themselves capable of more than they appear at a glance, this would be a good chance to do it.
Texas Tech goes to Texas tomorrow at 12:30 PM EST (ABC), and this has some Big 12 implications and perhaps fringe national title implications, but mostly it’s just fun.
Illinois is at Michigan State tomorrow (12:00 PM EST, ESPN) and Iowa’s at Ohio State (2:30 PM EST, FOX), all four looking to boost themselves up to where their talent says they could be, and Illinois and Ohio State trying to make moves in the Big Ten title race, which is still open for the taking with those two, Wisconsin, and Purdue all sitting at four losses apiece.
Speaking of those latter two, Wisconsin welcomes Michigan on Sunday (1:00 PM EST, CBS) before Purdue tries out Rutgers at home (5:30 PM EST, FS1). We’re still figuring out what Rutgers can’t currently do. Purdue has a few chances left to show they can, in fact, play defense.
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It’s a loaded weekend, and we’ll let you get to it. Bon voyage.
