The second half of the MLB season either started this weekend, starts in a couple weeks, or starts today. By staggering the All-Star Game to avoid Independence Day, ancient powers set us up for eternal confusion on when exactly midseason arrives in this awkwardly numbered sport. Whatever the case, three months remain before the greatest annual postseason in the competitive world, and whether you’re looking to catch up on baseball after paying spotty attention this spring or wondering how your impressions match the big picture, here’s where things stand at a high, high level:
World Series Contenders: Los Angeles, New York (AL), Philadelphia, Atlanta, Baltimore
Can a team outside these five win the World Series? Of course. This is baseball. This group, combined, is only about a 50/50 bet to get it done. Still, though: Five of the best seven teams in the standings are five of the best six on paper. In no particular order:
- The Dodgers buried the NL West around the end of April. They’re already tuning up for the postseason. Their injuries receive a lot of attention—Mookie Betts, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Max Muncy, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Brusdar Graterol, Joe Kelly, and a few others all should yet return this year—but one does wonder if at least with the bullpenners’ rehab, they’re trying to time up the National League. The Dodgers have dominated the regular season for a decade now. No one’s within 50 wins of them since the start of 2015. What’s eluded them, for the most part, is postseason success. They know that, and in the absence of a division challenger, they’re still in spring training.
- The Yankees are in a dogfight in the AL East, but in a war of stars, they’ve got the established ones. Gunnar Henderson is special, but he’s more an unknown than Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, and there’s only one of him. The Bronx Bombers are indeed bombing, and if Gerrit Cole can settle in now that he’s active again, their pitching staff should outpace that of their challengers to the south.
- Those challengers to the south? They’re young, they’re fun, they’re out-homering the bombers to the north, and an odd number of them look like they’re 14 years old. Since Adley Rutschman debuted in May of 2022, the Orioles have the best record in the American League, and they finished that 2022 season outside of playoff position. They keep getting better, and the 2016 Cubs parallels they’re hearing are as much promise as warning.
- No one has a better record through this first half than the Phillies, and with both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber expected to be fine, it’s unlikely they’ll miss a beat. They’re the clear favorite in the NL East, and they’ve got a better chance than anyone to lock up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Two years in a row, the Phillies were a very good playoff team. This year, they brought that performance to the spring months as well.
- Rounding out the list is Atlanta, who’s stumbled, lost an MVP (Ronald Acuña Jr.), and lost an All-Star (Spencer Strider), but who still sits comfortably in fourth place in a National League which lacks depth. The expected spin zone from Braves Country should they indeed fail to capture the division is that they didn’t like resting before the NLDS anyway. After failing to show up in each of the last two playoffs, they’ve blamed the new Wild Card format. Maybe they’re putting their money where their mouth is.
Should Make the Playoffs: Milwaukee, Cleveland, Minnesota
The other two great teams so far are the Brewers and, more impressive yet, the Guardians. How good have the Guardians been? They lead the entire American League, even amidst this Maryland moment. How good have the Guardians been? The Twins are ten games above .500 and look like an AL Central also-ran.
There are doubts about just how good Milwaukee and Cleveland can be. Each is expected to fade and play closer to .500 ball from here. But they’ve done enough already that barring true collapse, they’ll be in the picture. The same is true for those Twins, who are ten games above .500 and aren’t quite really an AL Central also-ran.
Have Been Bad, Should Be Good: Houston
The most puzzling team of the first half, the Astros have gotten it together. Alex Bregman started hitting, Hunter Brown started pitching, and Houston went above .500 yesterday for the first time all year. They’ve given everybody else a big head start, but Houston’s very much in the mix.
Have Been Good, Should Be Worse: Seattle, Kansas City, Boston
Part of why the Astros are in the mix is that the primary three teams they’re chasing—Seattle in the division, Kansas City and Boston in the Wild Card standings—are all poised to regress. The Mariners aren’t the worst-hitting team in baseball, but they do have the worst batting average, and they aren’t much better than it. The Royals are a modern moneyballer’s dream, but they’re fighting an uphill battle. The Red Sox are challenging preconceived notions, but will they abandon their little rebuild and get aggressive at the trade deadline to chase a best-of-three series?
Of these three, the Mariners are the most legitimate. But they’re not where Minnesota stands.
Have Been Bad, Should Be Better: Texas, Tampa Bay, Toronto
Opening the door for those teams (and helping the Astros) are the Rangers, Rays, and Blue Jays, each of whom was suspect entering this campaign and has confirmed the worst suspicions.
The Rangers are the most interesting of these three, as the defending World Series champs. What that championship obscures, though, is how vulnerable Texas was throughout last year’s regular season. They were a surprise contender, their bullpen got hot at the right time, and their reliance on young overachievers and a specific few veterans left them vulnerable to exactly the frustration that’s awaited them this year. Marcus Semien’s bat has fallen off, Wyatt Langford is only just now figuring it out, and franchise cornerstone Corey Seager might hit the IL at the start of a make–or–break month of baseball.
The Astros got it together in time, and the Astros are good enough on paper that there was already more cause for patience. That’s not looking like the case for this group.
The National League (good implication): San Diego, St. Louis, New York (NL)
Behind the Dodgers, Phillies, and Braves, the National League is a mess. For the Padres, Cardinals, and recently the Mets, that’s working out nicely.
The National League (bad implication): Arizona, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Chicago (NL), Cincinnati, Washington
The others? These are the ones making it a mess. Congratulations to the Nationals, who were expected to be worse. Congratulations to the Pirates, who have delivered on lofty promises. The other four? This is why you don’t dress rebuilds up as something else. More likely than not, one of these six teams will end up in the playoff field, with two of that last group missing the cut. Which of the six will it be? Good luck venturing a guess.
Bad, Not Terrible: Detroit, Anaheim
The Tigers had a nice start. The Angels once again have a few good players. Each is, for all intents and purposes, out of the race.
Terrible: Oakland, Miami, Colorado, Chicago (AL)
Finally, these dreaded four. Congratulations to the A’s for not being the worst team in baseball. There were some moments in there when things were going particularly well.
Miscellany – USMNT Tiebreakers
The U.S. plays Uruguay tonight in Copa América with tournament survival on the line. To advance to the knockout stage and keep their summer going, the U.S. needs to finish ahead of either Panama or Uruguay in Group C.
To pass Uruguay, the U.S. would need to win by four or more goals. This is extremely unlikely, because Uruguay is better than the U.S. and Uruguay knows that all it has to do is hold the U.S. to three scores. Uruguay can put eleven players in the box all night and move on without a problem.
To stay ahead of Panama…
- If Panama wins: This is the likeliest scenario. Bolivia is bad. In this case, the U.S. needs to win, and they need to win by enough to stay ahead of Panama in goal differential. Entering the games, the U.S. leads in goal differential by two. So, if Panama wins by two, the U.S. is fine, but if Panama wins by three, the U.S. needs to win by at least two goals. If goal differential becomes tied, it goes to goals scored and then to head-to-head result. The U.S. and Panama are currently tied in goals scored, and Panama won head-to-head. It is very hard to come up with scenarios where the U.S. advances past Panama on goals scored. It almost has to be goal differential if it isn’t points.
- If Panama draws: The U.S. advances with a draw or a win.
- If Panama loses: The U.S. advances with a win, a draw, or a loss by a close enough margin to keep the goal differential advantage over Panama. Bolivia would be tied with the pair in this scenario as well, but the U.S. currently leads Bolivia in goal differential by eight goals.
The U.S. does get to play on home soil, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Oddsmakers have Panama about 56% likely to win, and they have the U.S. about 38% likely to win. The games will be played concurrently.
Miscellany
- The early read from NBA and NHL free agency seems to be that the Predators are in the lead. That goes for both leagues. Developing situation, though.
- Update! The Celtics’ owners are selling? Can’t wait to discuss what this means for Brad Stevens one day taking the Indiana job.
- Aryna Sabalenka withdrew from Wimbledon yesterday with a shoulder injury. I think this was unexpected? Whatever the answer to that, it really opens up Coco Gauff’s side of the bracket. Early Fourth of July present in Great Britain.
