Fernando Tatís Jr., who’s missed the whole season to this point because of at least one offseason motorcycle crash, is going to miss the rest of the season because of a PED suspension. The news broke on Friday, and it’s bad for the Padres, but we’ll get to the Padres in a moment. First…
Tatís is clearly not what he needs to be off the field to make the most of his talent on the field. The PED thing—I haven’t looked, I’m guessing it hasn’t been said, but the history of Tatís’s use of PED’s is hopefully limited to this one instance and hopefully it was a dumb attempt to speed up his recovery—is bad and dumb and worse than the motorcycle thing for a lot of reasons, but partially because at least with the motorcycle thing, there’s the element where it probably takes the same hubris that got Tatís on the bike to get him to be so fearless against the best pitchers in the world. Tatís came up as a potential future face of baseball, captivating and electric and all those other things baseball is said to need in players. Now, his own teammates are sick of him, something we’d gotten hints last year was getting to be the case but is now out in the open. They said as much, more than one of them said as much, when asked about the suspension. Is this bad for baseball? I mean, yeah, you don’t want to lose potential superstars. But in a sense, baseball didn’t lose Tatís. We all just found out who he really is. At least right now.
The thing about the Padres is that they’re far from dead. Losing the prospect of having Tatís back hurts, but compared to where they were before the trade deadline, their roster’s still improved relative to expectations. This is an important thing. You don’t see it happen this way in football or basketball. A team lost what many have called a generational talent, and it was mostly washed away, and not only because they added a parallel talent through trade. It was mostly washed away because in baseball, one player can only do so much. Fernando Tatís Jr. is not a quarterback. Fernando Tatís Jr. has no good basketball parallel. Fernando Tatís Jr. is a phenomenal baseball player, but it takes a lot more than one. Even if you ignore the way this message is usually presented—the way having to do with chemistry, which is of uncertain import in America’s Pastime: Baseball is about the team.
Are the Yankees Ok?
Elsewhere in baseball, the Yankees lost a series to the stumbling Red Sox, and it culminated on Sunday Night Baseball, where the viewing audience was treated to a lesson in how the Yankees aren’t as good as they looked a couple months ago. It’s snuck up on almost all of us, I think, partially because the Yankees’ division lead is still so large, but the team that was expected to comfortably eclipse 100 wins has now lost nine of twelve, has now lost the lead of the American League chase for home-field advantage, and is now dealing with an onslaught of questions about whether they’re collapsing.
The Yankees are unlikely to full-on collapse. They’re still a great team on paper, and anything other than the 2-seed on the AL side of the playoff bracket would require some legitimately shocking happenings. Really, what’s going on here is that they’ve been too streaky for their own good. If they’d played the whole year at their overall pace, nobody would be blinking at their 98-win projection. That’d look pretty good. It’s because they started so hot that the downturn is getting attention at all.
Meanwhile, betting markets seem to have yet to react, which is puzzling. I wonder if books took on a lot of Yankees plays early in the year, when they were actually a bit behind on how good this team was.
Other baseball:
- The Red Sox, winners of the series, are keeping shreds of hope alive. The latest cause for belief? Michael Wacha came back from the IL last night, and he looked pretty darn good. They sit four and a half games out of playoff position entering play today, but they’re likely better than three of the four teams they’d have to pass, and there’s roughly a quarter of the season left. Things can happen fast.
- The Mets took two of three in a nail-biting weekend against the Phillies, but they lost Luis Guillorme to the IL, as their bit-of-an-everyman infielder has a groin strain. He’s not the worst guy to lose—not Fernando Tatís Jr. by any means—but he’s had a good year, and while it’s easy to make too much of a loss like Tatís, it’s also easy to make too little of a loss like Guillorme. For the Phils, the last NL playoff slot is still theirs by a game and a half, and Bryce Harper took batting practice over the weekend, a first step towards a return.
- Atlanta swept the Marlins and has now won six straight after that rough weekend against the Mets. Their chances of winning the NL East are slim, but they’ll get their opportunity to beef those chances up this week, welcoming New York to Georgia for a set of three.
- It’s rare to pay much attention to the Astros, given how far ahead they always seem to be in the AL West, but Lance McCullers Jr. made his season debut on Saturday, returning from a forearm strain to throw six shutout innings on Saturday. It wasn’t spectacular—he walked four batters and only struck out five—but as far as a season debut goes? I think everyone would take one like that. On a similar note: Did we mention Michael Brantley’s out for the year? Michael Brantley’s out for the year. The Astros now lead the Yankees by two and a half in the race for the top AL spot, and they trail the Mets by half a game for the second-best record in all of baseball.
- The team with the best record in all of baseball, the Dodgers, who are six clear of the Mets in the loss column, finally lost yesterday to the Royals, bringing their twelve-game winning streak to an end. They’re likely to be the first team to clinch a division, sixteen games ahead of the Padres as things currently stand (the Pads took two of three in Washington).
- The White Sox lost Luis Robert to a wrist sprain, but they did sweep the Tigers, bouncing back from a tough time in Missouri to keep the AL Central that much interesting. With the Twins struggling in Anaheim and the Guardians staying hot in Toronto, it’s turned into a two-tier race, with Cleveland up top and the others beneath. Those tiers aren’t separated by much.
- The Orioles lost two of three to the Rays, who’d been scuffling entering the set. Top-ish starting pitcher prospect DL Hall made his MLB debut for the Birds, with mixed results. A lot of strikeouts, no home runs, but chased early after allowing five in fewer than four innings of work. Drew Rasmussen took a perfect game into the ninth yesterday for the Rays, but it wasn’t to be. The series loss leaves Baltimore a game and a half behind Tampa Bay for the final AL playoff spot, and at a lot of points in this surge it’s looked like the Orioles are done, but each can be the one, and this time’s no different. The work is still cut out for the Orioles, and for the Rays, Jays, and Mariners (who lost two of three in Texas), on the right side of the cut line, the situation’s no different. You have to win ballgames.
- The Cardinals won their series with the Brewers, with Albert Pujols going yard twice yesterday to give them the upper hand in the Central by a game and a half. In the land of schedule-watching, St. Louis has the easiest path, from here, in all of baseball, at least going by FanGraphs. They’re a ways from pulling away, but as we said earlier: Things can happen fast. The Cards are even with the Phillies for fifth/sixth in the NL. Pujols is, against all odds, having a solid year.
- The Rangers have fired manager Chris Woodward, and as always with managerial firings, it’s probably not that big a deal. It’s interesting—I’m guessing most of us outside of Rangers circles haven’t given the Rangers’ rebuild much thought—but generally, the Rangers were expected to be mediocre, they’ve been mediocre, and while they spent big in free agency last offseason it was always a stretch to expect them to compete for a playoff berth this year. The best explanation is that they’ve realized Woodward isn’t who they want as the long-term guy, and now’s a good time to see how players do under an interim.
- Finally, more for our Cubs fans tomorrow, but the baby bears did win their third straight series over the weekend. Wasn’t a sweep, but a series win is a series win.
The AP Poll Doesn’t Matter Anymore
It used to be that the AP Poll meant something. Especially at the end of the year, when it determined the national champion, and after that (after a pause) who played in the BCS National Championship. Now? Now it’s just fodder for clicks, the original clickbait rankings returning to their natural end. Really. The AP Poll was created by the media to drum up interest in their coverage of college football. It’s the ancestor to all those top-five-NBA-players-of-all-time posts. Nothing against any of this, but: the AP Poll itself doesn’t matter right now.
Right now, the College Football Playoff is determined by a selection committee who does not seem, according to our research, to take the AP Poll into consideration. Does it subliminally affect them? Maybe, but even that would be in a roundabout way: Networks stop really showing teams’ AP rankings once the CFP committee’s first rankings come out, so the subliminal effects would likely be limited to early-ranking influence, and in the early stages, the rankings are subject to change. At this stage, the AP Poll is mostly useful as a piece of historic data reflecting the consensus perception of various college football teams at different points in history. Show me the 2022 preseason top 25 in ten years. Until then, it’s not telling us a lot.
The Pack Got Some Back
Not a lot to report from Friday night’s Packers game (though our Iowa State friend Brock Purdy did throw a touchdown for the Niners). Romeo Doubs had a couple drops but also looked pretty capable out there, and seems to be the likeliest answer to the wide receiver question, at least at this stage. If he is the answer, is he a good answer? We’ll get the answer later.
Over the weekend, Elgton Jenkins, Robert Tonyan, and Christian Watson all came off the PUP list, which isn’t shocking but is a little relieving. Good to see guys making progress.
NASCAR’s Playoff Chase Continues
It was Kevin Harvick who got the win yesterday at Richmond, the veteran capturing his second race in two weeks after going more than a year without a victory. Weird sport, that way. Hot and cold but siloed into track types but with variety within track types and correlations across cars and teams and drivers…interesting web.
Harvick’s win was a relief for Ryan Blaney, who’s currently the only guy in the playoffs on points, and it’s a relief for Martin Truex Jr. to some extent, who’s the first guy out on points, within striking distance of Blaney. Two races left before the playoffs, if there’s a new winner on either of them (and it isn’t Blaney or Truex) both Blaney and Truex fall back across the cut line. High stakes. Watkins Glen this week, Daytona next.
Trade Values Update
Finally, apologies on this, but we’re cutting the rest of those MLB trade value calculations. Just too much going on right now, and the moment passed. We’ll be back with ‘em next year. Maybe even in the offseason, if we get enough things together by then.
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Viewing schedule for the day, second screen rotation in italics:
- 3:10 PM EDT: Detroit @ Cleveland – Game 1, Hutchison vs. Civale (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Cubs @ Washington, Stroman vs. Gray (MLB TV)
- 6:40 PM EDT: Detroit @ Cleveland – Game 2, Garcia vs. Curry (MLB TV)
- 6:40 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ Cincinnati, Syndergaard vs. Minor (MLB TV)
- 6:40 PM EDT: San Diego @ Miami, Musgrove vs. Alcantara (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ New York (AL), Beeks vs. Cole (MLB TV)
- 7:07 PM EDT: Baltimore @ Toronto, Bradish vs. Kikuchi (MLB TV)
- 7:20 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ Atlanta, Carrasco vs. Strider (MLB TV)
- 7:40 PM EDT: Kansas City @ Minnesota, Bubic vs. Ryan (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Houston @ Chicago (AL), Urquidy vs. Cueto (FS1)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ Milwaukee, Urías vs. Peralta (MLB TV)
- 9:38 PM EDT: Seattle @ Anaheim, Castillo vs. Ohtani (MLB TV)
- 9:45 PM EDT: Arizona @ San Francisco, Bumgarner vs. Cobb (MLB TV)
